Fumbling-Duck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,161

lifetime

Volume

$217.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$78

1 position

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-30 00:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

59% 100% +$11

Politics

23% 100% +$27

Crypto

14% 100% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 388 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+79	$78	98¢	$78	$-0	06-25 22:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	186	$11.1K	7,016	4,234	+2,781	open	—	05-30 14:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	169	$11.0K	5,788	5,436	+351	open	—	06-18 14:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	138	$9.6K	5,373	4,398	+976	open	—	05-30 00:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	107	$9.4K	5,146	4,352	+794	open	—	05-29 17:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	82	$7.1K	3,791	3,363	+428	open	—	05-29 04:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	104	$6.7K	4,168	2,627	+1,541	open	—	05-28 21:04
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	76	$6.2K	3,681	2,577	+1,104	open	—	05-01 03:24
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	77	$5.9K	3,762	2,207	+1,554	open	—	04-28 10:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	76	$5.7K	3,272	2,591	+681	open	—	05-12 13:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	65	$5.5K	3,217	2,463	+754	open	—	05-30 23:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	67	$5.4K	3,179	2,256	+923	No	+$16	05-04 15:03
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	95	$5.3K	2,950	2,371	+579	open	—	06-10 16:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	68	$5.2K	3,386	1,909	+1,477	open	—	04-30 19:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	50	$4.9K	2,757	2,195	+562	open	—	06-18 17:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	115	$4.8K	2,933	1,926	+1,008	open	—	05-09 02:51
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	56	$4.5K	2,778	1,737	+1,042	open	—	04-30 21:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	65	$3.7K	1,972	1,853	+119	open	—	06-18 06:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	43	$3.7K	2,181	1,539	+642	open	—	04-30 09:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	38	$3.7K	2,009	1,744	+266	No	+$6	05-08 23:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	30	$3.5K	2,133	1,482	+650	open	—	04-30 10:21
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	47	$3.4K	1,835	1,599	+236	open	—	04-30 13:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	68	$3.4K	1,770	1,669	+100	open	—	05-14 02:54
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	58	$3.2K	2,426	860	+1,566	open	—	04-28 10:29
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	30	$3.2K	1,806	1,388	+418	open	—	05-24 01:00
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	136	$3.1K	1,380	1,767	-388	open	—	06-08 13:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	36	$3.1K	1,687	1,412	+275	open	—	05-14 15:26
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	31	$3.0K	1,522	1,522	+0	open	—	05-12 00:08
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	95	$2.9K	1,465	1,489	-24	open	—	06-10 00:10
Iran leadership change by May 31?	62	$2.8K	1,766	1,045	+721	open	—	05-27 09:35
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	28	$2.3K	1,217	1,099	+119	open	—	05-26 07:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 00:20:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xd4533a…
06-29 17:10:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x201636…
06-29 17:05:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x959b83…
06-29 17:04:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xcfc4af…
06-29 17:00:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x170c7b…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:58:34	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x78e618…
06-29 15:32:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xff4a5b…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xe5a214…
06-29 11:13:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x1ce52b…
06-29 07:56:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xd01ef1…
06-29 07:47:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x25cab3…
06-29 07:32:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xc3bcbe…
06-29 07:23:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xfa0f68…
06-29 07:10:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x127a3e…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x46296f…
06-28 11:25:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x6b6002…
06-28 08:12:25	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x677de5…
06-25 22:21:32	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xe687ef…
06-25 00:01:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x8b1ec4…
06-23 21:20:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x3c4407…
06-23 08:13:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3d49fc…
06-23 08:03:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe22191…
06-23 07:41:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xdc776f…
06-23 07:38:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf4bc0e…
06-22 23:37:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xa32778…
06-22 11:33:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	509	99¢	$504	0xf5af61…
06-22 08:35:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xc2e383…
06-22 08:32:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x710bdd…
06-22 08:31:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xc9b525…
06-22 08:30:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x3f90bf…
06-22 08:30:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x4905da…
06-22 08:27:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x710145…
06-22 08:26:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xeb39c5…
06-22 08:25:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0x55d9c7…
06-22 08:23:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xe5d916…
06-22 08:22:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xa4ea4e…
06-22 08:15:50	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x7d85fd…
06-22 08:01:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0x6895ae…
06-22 07:50:25	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xcafb81…
06-22 07:49:52	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x1d0191…
06-22 07:49:01	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xd7a47a…
06-22 07:48:35	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x9323d0…
06-22 07:48:05	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x8dd448…
06-22 07:46:28	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xacf891…
06-22 07:45:28	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x4b8973…
06-22 02:10:31	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x6f997d…
06-22 02:04:07	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x976e06…
06-22 02:02:46	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x6ee88d…
06-22 01:38:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xf3a0b2…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x8cbcae…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x4356d2…
06-21 23:35:38	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x9218ee…
06-21 23:33:56	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x84532e…
06-21 23:05:37	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x1f6a0f…
06-21 14:05:44	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xf5ca3e…
06-21 12:06:50	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xd5090b…
06-20 23:17:10	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x39326b…
06-20 23:06:19	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xd73df0…
06-20 22:50:53	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xe9b88a…
06-20 22:39:37	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xcb6d32…
06-20 03:37:08	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x7df010…
06-20 00:38:31	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x2c96a3…
06-18 17:39:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x4f59ec…
06-18 17:08:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xb75119…
06-18 14:50:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x7e6e03…
06-18 14:21:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x402e28…
06-18 11:43:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xbdd6d7…
06-18 06:31:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xe9dd02…
06-18 03:37:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x114020…
06-18 03:28:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x4d2b8f…
06-18 01:23:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x6c83e4…
06-18 00:33:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x12e8f7…
06-18 00:20:04	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x79719a…
06-17 23:59:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xc6dae3…
06-17 23:55:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xdad4cc…
06-17 23:40:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xd69513…
06-17 23:32:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xf603ed…
06-17 21:55:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0x91acf0…
06-17 19:35:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0xdf73d0…
06-17 19:35:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x3ddc34…
06-17 18:51:38	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x5b6d90…
06-17 18:21:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x4e825e…
06-17 18:19:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x436e2c…
06-17 17:42:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x2d003d…
06-17 17:33:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xa544d0…
06-17 17:33:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xe339a0…
06-17 17:30:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xcf0c72…
06-17 17:14:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x50a642…
06-17 17:11:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xc7c827…
06-17 17:07:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x37f24e…
06-17 17:05:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x6b1f68…
06-17 17:04:52	Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?	No	SELL	117	99¢	$116	0x2a1ead…
06-17 12:53:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x7a9260…
06-17 12:50:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x0006cf…
06-17 11:35:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xaaf3bc…
06-17 10:48:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x3c4c2f…
06-17 10:34:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x7c9ec8…