Plaintive-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

420

lifetime

Volume

$1.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-04 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

63% — —

Other

20% 100% +$1

Politics

16% 100% +$0

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1773755100	6	$56	100	99	+1	open	—	03-17 13:48
btc updown 5m 1773590700	4	$37	59	58	+1	open	—	03-15 16:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$31	26	26	+0	Yes	+$0	03-15 13:27
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	5	$28	24	24	+0	open	—	01-31 12:04
btc updown 5m 1773754800	4	$26	35	34	+0	open	—	03-17 13:42
btc updown 5m 1773589800	4	$25	26	26	+0	open	—	03-15 15:52
btc updown 5m 1773590400	2	$22	26	26	+0	open	—	03-15 16:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$22	240	26	+214	open	—	01-31 12:07
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	01-13 18:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	6	$18	85	14	+70	open	—	05-22 15:27
btc updown 5m 1773418500	4	$18	37	16	+22	open	—	03-13 16:17
btc updown 5m 1773419100	4	$18	17	17	+0	open	—	03-13 16:27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	3	$18	31	13	+18	open	—	02-28 08:02
btc updown 5m 1773587700	4	$17	32	32	+0	open	—	03-15 15:17
us strikes iraq by february 28	2	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	02-28 16:21
btc updown 5m 1773582300	4	$14	13	12	+0	open	—	03-15 13:48
btc updown 5m 1773584400	2	$14	18	17	+0	open	—	03-15 14:22
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$14	14	14	+0	open	—	03-17 13:55
btc updown 5m 1782646200	5	$14	17	17	+0	open	—	06-28 11:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$14	11	11	+0	open	—	01-13 17:19
btc updown 5m 1773418200	2	$14	12	12	+0	open	—	03-13 16:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	05-22 10:44
btc updown 5m 1771409400	4	$13	18	18	+0	open	—	02-18 10:13
btc updown 5m 1773590100	2	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	03-15 15:55
btc updown 5m 1782386100	3	$13	18	18	+0	open	—	06-25 11:18
btc updown 5m 1773581700	3	$13	24	24	+0	open	—	03-15 13:37
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	01-12 21:07
btc updown 5m 1773582000	4	$13	22	22	+0	open	—	03-15 13:43
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$13	42	42	+0	open	—	03-22 11:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$12	13	13	+0	open	—	03-06 11:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 14:07:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x66e9aa…
07-04 14:06:59	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x753504…
07-02 20:38:31	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x0bcea5…
07-02 20:38:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0x2c9478…
06-30 10:20:56	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xf8f740…
06-29 22:30:55	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe6cf0e…
06-29 22:28:53	btc updown 5m 1782771900	Down	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x0702b6…
06-29 22:27:46	btc updown 5m 1782771900	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xff6f9b…
06-29 22:27:08	btc updown 5m 1782771900	Up	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x5d1443…
06-29 22:26:26	btc updown 5m 1782771900	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x904a5f…
06-29 22:13:43	btc updown 5m 1782771000	Up	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x089e84…
06-29 22:13:01	btc updown 5m 1782771000	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4ebfbe…
06-29 08:45:43	btc updown 5m 1782722700	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x8df204…
06-29 08:43:56	btc updown 5m 1782722400	Up	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x0d60aa…
06-29 08:40:53	btc updown 5m 1782722400	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x58ede4…
06-29 08:36:28	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	No	SELL	8	84¢	$6	0x05078b…
06-28 11:49:23	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x6bb5fe…
06-28 11:42:16	btc updown 5m 1782646800	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x1cc975…
06-28 11:33:19	btc updown 5m 1782646200	Down	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0xaada80…
06-28 11:32:26	btc updown 5m 1782646200	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x57bacf…
06-28 11:31:40	btc updown 5m 1782646200	Up	SELL	11	40¢	$4	0x413953…
06-28 11:31:13	btc updown 5m 1782646200	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa4dde8…
06-28 11:31:08	btc updown 5m 1782646200	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x6ea228…
06-27 19:09:14	btc updown 5m 1782587100	Up	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0x6c615d…
06-27 19:07:40	btc updown 5m 1782587100	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x885665…
06-26 14:25:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8d6884…
06-26 14:20:36	btc updown 5m 1782483600	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xc9159c…
06-26 14:17:51	btc updown 5m 1782483300	Down	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0xec32ac…
06-26 14:17:12	btc updown 5m 1782483300	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x98a7ce…
06-25 11:22:40	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x838bb7…
06-25 11:22:31	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xa7fbc0…
06-25 11:18:11	btc updown 5m 1782386100	Up	SELL	7	53¢	$4	0x11ec44…
06-25 11:17:52	btc updown 5m 1782386100	Up	SELL	11	60¢	$6	0x27c0a5…
06-25 11:17:28	btc updown 5m 1782386100	Up	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x229541…
06-24 09:29:22	will trump say crypto bitcoin during pennsylvania events 20260619211746769	Yes	BUY	46	3¢	$2	0x785d05…
06-24 09:27:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x5ea751…
06-13 20:20:27	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x08e6d1…
06-12 05:03:09	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x5174af…
06-11 12:21:04	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6997d7…
06-11 12:12:18	btc updown 5m 1781179800	Up	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xed0e38…
06-11 12:11:13	btc updown 5m 1781179800	Up	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x5de612…
06-11 12:11:01	btc updown 5m 1781179800	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6212f5…
06-11 12:02:46	will trump say regarded in june	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x347bb2…
06-11 11:03:00	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xda5a31…
05-23 06:43:22	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x7df1dd…
05-22 15:27:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0xc98743…
05-22 15:24:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x53ceee…
05-22 13:26:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xbec80f…
05-22 13:25:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0xfc5839…
05-22 13:25:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0x25dccc…
05-22 13:19:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x1b261f…
05-22 10:44:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0x39b211…
05-19 04:05:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0x215a95…
05-19 04:02:37	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x76b54c…
05-19 04:02:15	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x04bb1e…
05-18 09:28:13	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x927a24…
05-18 09:26:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xb8c1e5…
05-18 05:49:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x845f2d…
05-18 05:02:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x08a923…
05-18 05:01:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x445324…
05-18 04:40:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x526817…
05-18 04:39:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x64d013…
05-17 20:45:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x6daccd…
05-17 20:33:58	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6aa5fa…
05-17 20:25:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xb3f31a…
05-17 20:25:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5af181…
05-15 12:35:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x1f8ea0…
05-14 15:31:45	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2e8666…
05-14 08:47:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0xbb0002…
05-14 05:03:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xbe6693…
05-13 16:14:19	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0x049a5b…
05-13 15:07:59	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x22d01d…
05-13 14:58:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xd0b6b3…
05-13 11:50:53	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	TheMongolz	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x534c0c…
05-13 11:01:20	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	TheMongolz	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa622a5…
05-12 09:00:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xbaba3b…
05-12 03:36:19	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x0ee07f…
05-11 18:32:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x13fb69…
05-11 05:57:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x1eeee9…
05-11 05:55:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x96c7c4…
05-10 17:56:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x4f231c…
05-10 07:59:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9a6389…
03-22 11:29:59	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0xf4ec9f…
03-18 20:44:49	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0xb55d29…
03-18 20:44:03	btc updown 5m 1773866400	Up	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x687c1d…
03-18 20:43:29	btc updown 5m 1773866400	Up	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x704b0e…
03-18 20:42:01	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	17	14¢	$2	0x5a37ec…
03-18 20:40:41	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0xdc5a84…
03-17 14:13:59	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x26d2e4…
03-17 14:12:37	btc updown 5m 1773756600	Up	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xfcfb2b…
03-17 14:11:59	btc updown 5m 1773756600	Up	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x754de5…
03-17 14:06:11	btc updown 5m 1773756300	Down	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xd4f2eb…
03-17 14:05:51	btc updown 5m 1773756300	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x6362da…
03-17 14:02:41	btc updown 5m 1773756000	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xbe9d10…
03-17 14:01:21	btc updown 5m 1773756000	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x5e091e…
03-17 13:59:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x0870a6…
03-17 13:56:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x600616…
03-17 13:55:19	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0xce033c…
03-17 13:50:45	btc updown 5m 1773755400	Up	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x82ce13…
03-17 13:48:21	btc updown 5m 1773755100	Down	SELL	35	14¢	$5	0x9a8e43…