Decisive-Mailing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

Trades

124

lifetime

Volume

$232

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 06-19 03:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

40% 67% +$3

Crypto

31% — —

Other

29% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	7	$40	26	26	+0	open	—	04-28 03:08
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	04-13 07:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-30 15:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$7	17	16	+1	open	—	04-14 05:42
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	04-16 09:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$6	14	13	+0	open	—	04-14 07:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	5	$6	15	4	+11	open	—	05-20 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	3	$5	6	4	+2	open	—	05-20 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-20 02:11
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$4	46	46	+0	open	—	04-19 08:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-20 01:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-28 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-20 01:27
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	06-14 22:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	06-14 22:58
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	2	$4	4	4	+0	Yes	$-0	04-21 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	3	$4	6	4	+2	open	—	05-22 02:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$4	15	15	+1	open	—	04-21 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	05-20 03:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	No	+$1	04-28 02:46
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	1	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	04-28 02:45
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$3	4	4	+0	open	—	04-15 04:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 02:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$3	15	15	+1	open	—	04-20 01:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	05-20 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 02:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 02:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 01:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 02:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 03:38:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x178f16…
06-18 18:17:52	fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x83c046…
06-18 03:27:53	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc8dbf2…
06-14 22:58:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x44fc43…
06-14 22:57:07	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x17a4aa…
06-14 05:32:45	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 goals harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x05b39b…
06-13 21:57:21	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xe772f4…
06-13 21:56:46	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc7975e…
06-13 13:59:22	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 goals ayoub el kaabi gte1	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x030371…
06-13 01:40:58	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 btts first half	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x08f39d…
06-13 01:33:28	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 btts first half	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x01349a…
06-13 01:32:55	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 btts first half	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x3d3ca9…
06-12 07:31:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x0e9e2d…
06-12 07:22:42	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 btts	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x520707…
06-12 05:06:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x2f4809…
05-29 23:00:37	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xce9e17…
05-22 03:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x5b0d4b…
05-22 03:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8ea4bd…
05-22 03:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9d4bee…
05-22 02:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7cefb0…
05-22 02:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfc7417…
05-22 02:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x8969a6…
05-22 02:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xaebf2d…
05-22 02:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa02f89…
05-22 01:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x59f53c…
05-22 01:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x203cb6…
05-22 01:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe776c7…
05-22 01:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xa955b9…
05-22 01:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xea2d8a…
05-22 01:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7999e3…
05-20 03:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x41d077…
05-20 03:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xf89060…
05-20 03:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2a44d2…
05-20 03:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8c5dee…
05-20 03:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xb590c9…
05-20 03:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd58e6b…
05-20 03:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x32b028…
05-20 03:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa34d6e…
05-20 03:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7c7619…
05-20 03:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3ddefd…
05-20 03:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xeec9a5…
05-20 03:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x428df0…
05-20 02:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x4ce4be…
05-20 02:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xd9f656…
05-20 02:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd438ce…
05-20 02:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x7f06bb…
05-20 02:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x524248…
05-20 02:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x14f7f9…
05-20 02:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8cc908…
05-20 02:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0c171f…
05-20 02:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x693599…
05-20 02:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x10b90c…
05-20 02:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7d89e6…
05-20 02:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7f8c23…
05-20 02:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x80547d…
05-20 02:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x6dbb07…
05-20 02:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe70ef0…
05-20 02:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x46fef4…
05-20 02:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xec9cd9…
05-20 02:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x479cb2…
05-20 02:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x01f2d7…
05-20 02:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x026aa6…
05-20 02:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x2620ef…
05-20 02:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x68e507…
05-20 02:11:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf38b83…
05-20 02:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xf4af90…
05-20 02:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x636fac…
05-20 02:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xeb9a3d…
05-20 02:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x379eb6…
05-20 02:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xd5d3ad…
05-20 01:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa3909b…
05-20 01:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x915e4d…
05-20 01:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x942d97…
05-20 01:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xce4de6…
05-20 01:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xeb3e59…
05-20 01:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x425606…
05-20 01:25:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x71d064…
05-15 13:48:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xb917b7…
05-12 17:30:57	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 12?	No	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xe9c9ab…
05-12 09:28:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 12?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xea5f9b…
05-12 09:19:00	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6de0e6…
05-12 09:06:52	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $168 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0x2da466…
05-12 08:50:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x591147…
05-08 04:18:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfa16db…
05-07 16:09:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x14a1d1…
05-07 02:09:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5704f0…
04-30 15:38:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x0f4c63…
04-30 15:38:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xee5530…
04-28 08:09:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x756070…
04-28 03:09:04	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x494ada…
04-28 03:08:46	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x08d250…
04-28 02:46:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x70940d…
04-28 02:45:56	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3f9774…
04-21 23:47:36	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x424435…
04-21 19:44:56	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 22	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x416441…
04-21 18:01:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe96f9f…
04-21 17:10:56	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 23	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xd9ca31…
04-21 16:41:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xadb812…
04-21 16:41:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0xbcaffb…
04-20 01:49:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x3b8678…