Likable-Airfare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$634

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

Trades

519

lifetime

Volume

$179.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$345

Open exposure

$45

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-31 08:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$485

Other

48% 93% +$148

Crypto

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No		+25	$24	94¢	$24	$0	10-31 08:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+22	$22	98¢	$22	+$0	10-31 08:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	337	$88.4K	177,928	0	+177,928	No	+$485	01-20 16:07
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	55	$38.4K	85,885	0	+85,885	Yes	-$162	01-23 03:38
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	25	$32.7K	51,418	0	+51,418	No	+$277	01-22 10:05
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$14.6K	14,582	0	+14,582	No	+$15	01-22 10:11
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	8	$3.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	No	+$0	01-15 10:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$126	66	66	+0	No	+$1	04-21 02:34
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 500 519	1	$89	89	0	+89	No	+$0	03-23 08:21
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	03-29 08:50
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 100 119	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	03-14 09:04
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	08-24 10:53
Trump out as President by August 31?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	08-27 15:25
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-24 10:15
Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on September 6?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	09-04 11:49
will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on march 9	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-09 04:03
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on September 6?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	09-04 11:50
will the price of solana be between 110 120 on february 25	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	02-23 01:29
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 360 379	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	03-17 03:31
will xrp reach 2pt1 february 9 15	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	02-13 07:35
solana above 140 on february 21	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	02-19 10:05
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-10 02:31
solana above 70 on march 12	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	03-12 10:03
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 20 39	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	01-25 06:41
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 420 439	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	01-18 12:46
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 11?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-10 02:32
solana above 30 on february 23	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	02-19 10:05
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	10-31 08:15
will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt30 on february 5	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	02-04 07:19
solana above 120 on february 20	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	02-19 10:04
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	07-01 08:47
Will the price of Solana be greater than $150 on September 7?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	09-04 11:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 08:16:03	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x56f054…
10-31 08:15:49	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x614146…
10-31 08:15:19	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xba65a0…
10-31 08:15:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x8f16c9…
09-04 11:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x418aca…
09-04 11:49:31	Will the price of Solana be greater than $150 on September 7?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2d9061…
09-04 11:49:04	Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on September 6?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x72c798…
08-27 15:25:21	Trump out as President by August 31?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xca038a…
08-24 10:54:21	Trump out as President by August 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x426a92…
08-24 10:53:54	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2af44f…
08-24 10:53:01	Will the price of XRP be between $0.60 and $0.70 on August 26?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xef0731…
08-24 10:52:04	Will the price of Solana be above $60 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf25271…
08-24 10:51:28	Will the price of Solana be above $130 on August 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1bfe58…
08-24 10:15:34	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x2651e3…
08-02 06:26:29	ethereum above 2200 on august 4 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x06a121…
08-02 06:25:57	will ethereum reach 2100 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x20f49e…
08-02 06:24:21	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xfc7ce8…
08-02 06:24:00	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xbd19a4…
07-01 08:48:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x325e9d…
07-01 08:47:37	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5ec277…
07-01 08:47:23	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf172e5…
07-01 08:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xfaa247…
06-16 12:31:31	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd14a03…
06-16 12:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June 18?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x63a488…
06-16 12:30:49	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9e9a50…
06-16 12:30:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x61be37…
06-16 12:30:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa00517…
06-16 12:29:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe04f9b…
05-10 02:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 11?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa1da2c…
05-10 02:31:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2d1481…
05-10 02:31:21	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3fbf52…
05-10 02:31:04	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xae94ed…
04-21 02:36:30	highest temperature in nyc on april 22 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9932b9…
04-21 02:36:18	highest temperature in houston on april 20 2026 76 77f	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x656117…
04-21 02:35:54	highest temperature in houston on april 22 2026 58 59f	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdf4de1…
04-21 02:35:44	highest temperature in denver on april 22 2026 54 55f	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x39fa35…
04-21 02:35:12	highest temperature in seoul on april 22 2026 10c	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x15195e…
04-21 02:34:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	66	96¢	$64	0x10d2aa…
04-09 17:05:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	66	94¢	$62	0x849991…
04-09 08:53:45	highest temperature in taipei on april 10 2026 38c	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7c8fcd…
04-09 08:53:35	highest temperature in taipei on april 9 2026 34c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x588cb9…
03-29 08:50:58	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x96f0ba…
03-29 08:48:46	highest temperature in lucknow on march 29 2026 39c	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5ade8b…
03-23 08:21:29	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 500 519	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x7878d6…
03-17 03:31:19	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 360 379	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa1e56a…
03-14 09:04:27	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 100 119	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x41f90b…
03-12 10:04:45	will the price of solana be between 40 50 on march 14	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfa06f7…
03-12 10:04:31	will the price of solana be between 110 120 on march 13	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1c0d3a…
03-12 10:04:15	will the price of solana be between 100 110 on march 12	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbcc6da…
03-12 10:03:59	solana above 40 on march 16	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x275e1b…
03-12 10:03:35	solana above 60 on march 13	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe26694…
03-12 10:03:17	solana above 70 on march 12	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x65abd7…
03-09 04:03:39	will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on march 9	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x158cc6…
03-09 04:02:59	solana above 60 on march 9	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6d04f5…
03-09 04:02:41	xrp above 1pt8 on march 10	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x34a123…
03-09 04:02:21	bitcoin above 76k on march 10	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3953ec…
03-01 04:08:07	will solana dip to 40 february 23 march 1	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x086caa…
03-01 04:07:31	xrp above 1pt7 on march 1	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4ee8d2…
03-01 04:06:51	will the price of xrp be less than 0pt90 on march 3	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xced4f9…
03-01 04:06:17	will the price of xrp be less than 0pt90 on march 2	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x61e444…
03-01 04:05:31	will xrp dip to 0pt7 february 23 march 1	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x051964…
02-23 01:29:46	will the price of solana be between 110 120 on february 25	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf51425…
02-23 01:25:46	solana above 130 on february 26	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x64cb6e…
02-23 01:25:18	solana above 130 on february 25	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x52123f…
02-19 10:05:38	solana above 30 on february 23	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x56591a…
02-19 10:05:18	solana above 40 on february 22	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcf66ce…
02-19 10:05:02	solana above 140 on february 21	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1936b5…
02-19 10:04:44	solana above 120 on february 20	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0d15b5…
02-13 07:37:21	solana above 120 on february 14	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd1c308…
02-13 07:36:51	will the price of xrp be greater than 1pt90 on february 14	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x711279…
02-13 07:35:59	xrp above 1pt8 on february 14	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xcce778…
02-13 07:35:27	will xrp reach 2pt1 february 9 15	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc2d20b…
02-04 07:19:58	will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt20 on february 6	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd97af3…
02-04 07:19:32	will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt30 on february 5	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x7bad36…
02-04 07:18:50	xrp above 2pt3 on february 6	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfc2bb8…
02-04 07:18:20	xrp above 2pt3 on february 5	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x42464a…
01-27 03:16:27	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc0dca8…
01-26 16:30:11	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	14,582	0¢	$15	0x9d3726…
01-26 08:35:13	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4e8a23…
01-25 06:41:36	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 300 319	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x9ef9a9…
01-25 06:41:00	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 20 39	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa42127…
01-25 06:40:42	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 160 179	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xce51b7…
01-23 03:38:46	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	283	2¢	$5	0x6382e3…
01-23 02:26:20	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x32a99c…
01-23 02:23:50	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	283	98¢	$278	0x718065…
01-22 10:13:04	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	442	98¢	$434	0xe2151f…
01-22 10:11:32	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	14,582	100¢	$14,567	0xdfa8c2…
01-22 10:09:44	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xf34bca…
01-22 10:09:38	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xa8b2cf…
01-22 10:08:40	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0x7eafd9…
01-22 10:08:34	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0x6fe8fc…
01-22 10:07:56	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xb79d40…
01-22 10:07:40	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	119	2¢	$2	0x3b53cd…
01-22 10:07:38	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xe20ce5…
01-22 10:07:04	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0xdbe978…
01-22 10:06:30	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xe84690…
01-22 10:06:30	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	800	2¢	$15	0x33b8f4…
01-22 10:06:16	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0x49790b…
01-22 10:05:42	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0xdb2f8d…
01-22 10:05:24	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0xeccd0d…