Impish-Carpenter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 08-14 15:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

68% — —

Other

25% 100% +$30

Crypto

5% 100% +$11

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	2	$209	179	179	+0	open	—	03-12 12:20
will iran strike israel on march 7	2	$184	143	143	+0	open	—	03-07 08:50
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	2	$170	128	128	+0	open	—	03-08 09:43
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$161	121	121	+0	open	—	03-04 21:43
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	2	$150	486	0	+486	open	—	03-08 17:38
will iran strike israel on march 9	2	$145	116	116	+0	open	—	03-08 10:26
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$144	128	128	+0	open	—	03-08 14:22
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$130	111	111	+0	Yes	+$30	04-19 13:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	4	$128	97	97	+0	open	—	04-23 16:53
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$127	88	88	+0	open	—	03-09 18:29
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	2	$114	125	125	+0	open	—	03-03 20:53
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	2	$64	54	54	+0	open	—	04-15 19:42
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$58	36	36	+0	open	—	03-05 07:54
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$51	31	31	+0	open	—	04-12 19:50
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	1	$40	106	0	+106	open	—	03-12 22:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$38	23	23	+0	open	—	03-23 15:15
moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260720155944305	2	$38	30	30	+0	open	—	08-14 15:15
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	2	$36	33	33	+0	open	—	03-20 15:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$30	120	0	+120	open	—	05-09 18:16
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$30	111	0	+111	open	—	05-11 17:59
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$30	46	0	+46	open	—	05-15 13:33
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?	1	$30	41	0	+41	Yes	+$11	05-07 04:58
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$29	0	31	-31	open	—	06-20 20:59
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	04-16 19:28
will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	2	$25	188	0	+188	open	—	08-05 15:47
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	1	$25	38	0	+38	open	—	08-14 15:29
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$25	114	0	+114	open	—	05-03 08:07
btc updown 5m 1772640000	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	03-04 16:03
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	1	$20	50	0	+50	open	—	03-11 17:34
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	1	$20	154	0	+154	open	—	07-26 19:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 15:08:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0x9fc008…
08-18 15:07:46	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xf209bb…
08-18 15:04:42	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x79b4d8…
08-14 15:29:10	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x1833cc…
08-14 15:15:30	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260720155944305	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x08368a…
08-10 10:16:42	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260720155944305	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xc0c27a…
08-10 09:10:09	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	SELL	13	72¢	$9	0x9098e1…
08-07 08:07:33	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x96e8e7…
08-05 15:47:20	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x0473ac…
08-05 15:46:39	will iran target a arab country on august 5 2026 20260801004719122	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xe3f5e9…
07-27 19:17:25	btc updown 5m 1785179700	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x18a294…
07-26 19:26:12	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0xddda8e…
07-26 19:11:48	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x85e9fb…
07-09 11:46:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x893504…
06-20 20:59:23	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	93¢	$29	0x43fdd1…
05-17 05:32:27	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	13¢	$10	0x7c58d2…
05-15 13:33:28	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x920fe1…
05-11 17:59:27	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x7294d5…
05-09 18:16:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x569d56…
05-07 04:58:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x6ce743…
05-03 08:07:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x6f9dff…
04-28 21:05:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x039efc…
04-23 16:53:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0x96cb52…
04-19 13:45:14	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	111	72¢	$80	0xf87cd9…
04-19 12:52:40	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x59f2eb…
04-17 19:28:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x87c7c4…
04-17 19:28:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	53¢	$18	0xd0f60f…
04-17 19:02:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x39acfc…
04-16 19:28:46	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xdc0a42…
04-15 21:54:18	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	6¢	$10	0x1187ec…
04-15 19:42:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	SELL	54	82¢	$44	0x7fb358…
04-15 16:57:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xd50321…
04-12 19:50:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x2b4f4c…
04-10 17:23:19	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x7d79e7…
04-05 11:18:27	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xee3ca3…
03-28 12:18:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9256a9…
03-23 15:15:59	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	23	80¢	$18	0x28c954…
03-23 11:56:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x79bed5…
03-21 22:59:29	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	Yes	BUY	154	3¢	$5	0x7181d8…
03-20 15:02:57	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	Yes	SELL	33	61¢	$21	0xcf1083…
03-20 06:01:23	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xf172be…
03-12 22:51:29	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	BUY	106	38¢	$40	0x6dbcb9…
03-12 17:27:07	btc updown 5m 1773336300	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xbc0a10…
03-12 12:20:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	SELL	179	61¢	$109	0xa73e39…
03-12 12:10:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x77d227…
03-11 17:34:05	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x3ea092…
03-11 17:24:03	btc updown 5m 1773249600	Up	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0xec372e…
03-11 17:22:03	btc updown 5m 1773249600	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x54d4ed…
03-11 14:07:41	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	Yes	BUY	112	9¢	$10	0xda7d08…
03-09 18:29:33	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	88	88¢	$77	0xdcc1fe…
03-09 16:20:19	will iran strike turkey in march	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0xbabfe2…
03-09 12:41:47	will iran strike turkey in march	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xd92508…
03-08 17:38:49	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	321	22¢	$70	0xab279d…
03-08 14:22:07	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	128	34¢	$44	0x0b4d05…
03-08 10:50:09	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xea2776…
03-08 10:26:27	will iran strike israel on march 9	Yes	SELL	116	82¢	$95	0x668ddc…
03-08 09:58:31	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	165	48¢	$80	0xca1864…
03-08 09:43:55	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	SELL	128	63¢	$80	0xd7d6fe…
03-07 21:33:41	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	BUY	128	71¢	$90	0x0a0a2e…
03-07 19:15:39	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x36bc63…
03-07 08:50:17	will iran strike israel on march 7	Yes	SELL	143	80¢	$114	0x300942…
03-05 23:24:53	btc updown 5m 1772752800	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0xe55cc1…
03-05 21:08:27	will iran strike israel on march 9	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x331b0f…
03-05 14:26:39	will iran strike israel on march 7	Yes	BUY	143	49¢	$70	0x5eb3fe…
03-05 07:54:59	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	Yes	SELL	36	79¢	$28	0xb634eb…
03-05 07:41:17	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xeb4820…
03-04 21:43:13	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	121	67¢	$81	0xbb4369…
03-04 21:17:09	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0xb5b76d…
03-04 16:19:55	btc updown 5m 1772640900	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xf0e3a5…
03-04 16:03:45	btc updown 5m 1772640000	Up	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xabc02f…
03-04 16:01:19	btc updown 5m 1772640000	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7ec862…
03-04 12:00:23	btc updown 5m 1772625600	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x138383…
03-04 11:46:33	btc updown 5m 1772624700	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xb2d476…
03-04 11:16:43	btc updown 5m 1772622900	Up	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0xd99c61…
03-03 20:53:13	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	Yes	SELL	125	75¢	$94	0x2af6bf…
03-03 19:52:23	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x5d4891…