Outlandish-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.07K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.31K

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

270

Trades

1,272

lifetime

Volume

$150.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$118

Open exposure

$3.58K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 13:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

54% 51% -$149

Politics

41% 56% +$3,016

Tech

4% 80% +$993

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$93

Crypto

0% 100% +$199

Sports

0% 0% -$86

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1,522	$1,212	78¢	$1.2K	-$18	10-30 11:17
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+1,005	$377	94¢	$939	+$563	07-31 20:13
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+375	$358	97¢	$364	+$6	10-29 22:46
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	+360	$334	95¢	$343	+$9	10-29 19:21
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+379	$250	72¢	$271	+$21	10-07 05:16
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+278	$200	78¢	$215	+$15	10-08 06:22
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	+222	-$108	75¢	$165	+$273	10-30 13:33
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+1,005	$889	6¢	$65	-$824	07-31 08:01
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	-333	-$56	6¢	$-18	+$37	05-28 09:01
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+1,220	$4	0¢	$3	-$1	10-29 08:21
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+1	-$59	100¢	$1	+$60	10-29 07:59
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+1	-$39	99¢	$1	+$40	10-29 08:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+1	-$127	93¢	$1	+$128	10-30 05:24
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	+0	-$162	100¢	$0	+$162	10-02 04:26
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	+0	-$1,837	100¢	$0	+$1,838	10-27 09:36
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	+0	-$34	97¢	$0	+$34	10-28 00:28
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+0	$29	22¢	$0	-$29	09-29 03:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	16	$6.3K	4,016	4,016	+0	No	-$37	02-14 04:45
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for denmark by feburary 1	19	$6.3K	3,363	3,363	+0	No	+$365	01-29 12:18
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$6.1K	3,256	3,256	+0	Yes	+$304	10-26 00:31
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	16	$5.6K	3,891	3,891	+0	open	—	10-27 09:36
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$4.1K	2,485	2,485	+0	No	-$370	05-11 20:27
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	7	$3.8K	2,531	2,531	+0	Yes	-$508	05-16 01:21
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	15	$3.2K	3,344	0	+3,344	Yes	+$106	10-16 17:31
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	5	$3.1K	3,149	0	+3,149	Yes	+$73	03-08 21:14
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	12	$3.0K	3,760	416	+3,344	No	+$114	10-28 09:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$183	03-14 23:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$2.7K	4,156	234	+3,922	Yes	-$325	09-12 21:37
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	3	$2.4K	1,228	1,228	-0	No	+$28	07-15 01:04
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	12	$2.3K	2,407	0	+2,407	No	+$58	02-09 21:20
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	2	$2.3K	1,311	1,311	+0	Yes	+$309	07-24 20:58
starmer out by june 22 2026	10	$2.1K	1,262	922	+340	Yes	+$94	06-22 08:32
will graham platner drop out by july 8	12	$2.0K	1,466	1,466	+0	Yes	+$858	07-09 00:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$52	05-09 09:12
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	7	$1.9K	1,002	1,000	+2	Yes	+$83	09-27 06:07
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	3	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$89	10-26 01:23
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	8	$1.9K	1,019	1,019	+0	Yes	-$44	02-22 07:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	11	$1.6K	938	937	+1	open	—	10-30 05:24
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$1.6K	1,700	0	+1,700	No	+$136	02-23 11:45
Trump renames AI by September 30?	10	$1.5K	1,234	1,233	+1	Yes	+$600	09-29 18:55
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	9	$1.5K	794	794	-0	Yes	+$101	10-11 04:21
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	10	$1.5K	776	775	+1	open	—	10-29 08:06
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	5	$1.5K	922	922	+0	Yes	+$371	02-03 23:21
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	4	$1.4K	752	752	+0	No	+$39	09-19 20:44
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?	8	$1.4K	767	767	+0	Yes	+$171	09-18 03:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,398	0	+1,398	No	+$46	05-07 20:38
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	12	$1.3K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	10-24 10:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 13:33:51	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	48	50¢	$24	0x8f6420…
10-30 11:17:37	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	522	79¢	$412	0x385773…
10-30 11:13:31	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	761	41¢	$310	0x335e43…
10-30 11:12:01	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	87	47¢	$41	0x90589f…
10-30 11:11:21	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0x86d5e6…
10-30 11:11:01	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	70	48¢	$34	0x88d6f5…
10-30 11:09:54	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	32	50¢	$16	0xe63b4e…
10-30 10:32:34	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	80¢	$164	0x1f8543…
10-30 06:04:45	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	543	5¢	$27	0x5ab14f…
10-30 05:24:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	229	92¢	$210	0x25b242…
10-30 04:32:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	28	91¢	$25	0x8f6797…
10-30 04:30:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xe8cd73…
10-30 04:26:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xf09d83…
10-30 04:14:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	55	91¢	$50	0x25d41d…
10-30 03:46:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	190	90¢	$172	0x08c4c9…
10-30 03:46:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xcabb72…
10-30 03:34:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$181	0x1255d4…
10-30 02:15:10	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x324a2c…
10-30 01:46:55	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	500	27¢	$134	0xa593cc…
10-30 01:45:51	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	172	27¢	$46	0x678b2b…
10-30 01:45:51	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x002aab…
10-30 00:45:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	438	86¢	$377	0x21c62f…
10-29 23:48:22	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xbbc2ad…
10-29 23:20:21	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	230	34¢	$78	0x202148…
10-29 23:09:21	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	270	29¢	$78	0x0c41f4…
10-29 23:08:24	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xe4bff7…
10-29 22:59:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	69¢	$346	0xa1a9e5…
10-29 22:46:45	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	96¢	$265	0x9206a2…
10-29 21:35:48	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x3d436f…
10-29 21:32:07	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	95¢	$45	0xda6adc…
10-29 21:02:15	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x2e7ebe…
10-29 21:02:13	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	113	35¢	$39	0x3e347b…
10-29 19:33:06	Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0xae2630…
10-29 19:21:12	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0x0ae199…
10-29 10:10:08	Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	80	94¢	$76	0xb64003…
10-29 09:45:50	Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0x0d879c…
10-29 09:01:28	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x175be7…
10-29 09:00:41	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x3a52b8…
10-29 08:36:46	Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x082e87…
10-29 08:36:29	Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?	Yes	SELL	96	85¢	$81	0x77a63b…
10-29 08:21:23	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,220	0¢	$4	0x24d99e…
10-29 08:11:16	Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?	Yes	BUY	64	41¢	$27	0x872785…
10-29 08:06:34	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	370	98¢	$363	0xb8967d…
10-29 08:04:32	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	405	98¢	$398	0xf0d897…
10-29 08:00:35	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$149	0x72ca3b…
10-29 07:59:23	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	239	100¢	$238	0x1add92…
10-29 05:15:52	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	5¢	$2	0x24d96c…
10-29 05:14:16	Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	161	75¢	$120	0x8b39a2…
10-29 03:05:50	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	56	5¢	$3	0x03d10c…
10-29 03:05:47	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xf973c7…
10-29 02:22:17	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	260	5¢	$13	0xb1ad3e…
10-28 18:44:55	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?	Yes	BUY	746	3¢	$24	0xf8346b…
10-28 10:10:11	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	795	80¢	$636	0xd50288…
10-28 09:34:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$382	0xa364ca…
10-28 09:33:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	380	95¢	$363	0xb836e4…
10-28 09:33:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0x606da2…
10-28 09:33:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0xaabe2f…
10-28 09:32:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	355	95¢	$339	0x6038b2…
10-28 09:32:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$382	0x641453…
10-28 09:31:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0x081548…
10-28 09:30:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	601	95¢	$573	0x98417c…
10-28 09:29:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	378	5¢	$18	0x48039e…
10-28 09:28:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	230	95¢	$219	0x4e58df…
10-28 07:44:13	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0x7a27be…
10-28 07:36:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xf98e79…
10-28 07:36:55	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	77¢	$214	0x119ee3…
10-28 07:25:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0x9eca8d…
10-28 07:25:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	55¢	$164	0x224732…
10-28 03:11:36	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	23¢	$7	0x41bbb8…
10-28 03:10:36	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	556	4¢	$22	0x8c02b7…
10-28 02:38:38	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0xe06331…
10-28 02:38:36	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x776f42…
10-28 02:38:36	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	89	93¢	$83	0x52a01c…
10-28 02:38:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	35	93¢	$33	0xd2950c…
10-28 02:38:17	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x6d4ec8…
10-28 02:38:17	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x6b0da9…
10-28 02:38:17	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x1200fe…
10-28 02:37:56	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	99	93¢	$92	0x20cbeb…
10-28 02:37:38	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	177	93¢	$165	0x78610c…
10-28 00:28:06	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xaaae11…
10-28 00:26:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0x41f2ef…
10-28 00:21:32	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x29cc50…
10-27 23:32:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	673	20¢	$135	0x51f986…
10-27 23:31:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	73	20¢	$15	0x7291d3…
10-27 22:52:57	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xc4f811…
10-27 22:20:57	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0xc6f5b6…
10-27 22:20:53	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0xeec850…
10-27 22:18:11	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x9bbc97…
10-27 22:12:59	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0xc52c8b…
10-27 20:37:09	Will Amcha Yisrael be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	109	86¢	$94	0x0dacf0…
10-27 20:34:56	Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	132	87¢	$114	0xc54d37…
10-27 20:24:47	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x2c66f0…
10-27 20:24:24	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4694a1…
10-27 20:09:54	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0xb7093f…
10-27 20:07:06	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x22ded7…
10-27 19:48:27	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x865ae3…
10-27 09:39:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xde13d0…
10-27 09:36:47	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	1,426	95¢	$1,355	0xe15f1f…
10-27 09:32:48	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	Yes	BUY	137	99¢	$136	0xa8786d…
10-27 09:27:56	Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x8819bd…