Outlandish-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$195

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

Trades

703

lifetime

Volume

$78.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 16:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-15

Politics

38% 80% +$210

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	16	$6.3K	4,016	4,016	+0	open	—	02-14 04:45
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for denmark by feburary 1	19	$6.3K	3,363	3,363	+0	open	—	01-29 12:18
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$4.1K	2,485	2,485	+0	open	—	05-11 20:27
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	5	$3.1K	3,149	0	+3,149	open	—	03-08 21:14
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	6	$3.0K	1,732	2,531	-799	open	—	05-16 01:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	03-14 23:05
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	3	$2.4K	1,228	1,228	-0	open	—	07-15 01:04
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	12	$2.3K	2,407	0	+2,407	open	—	02-09 21:20
starmer out by june 22 2026	10	$2.1K	1,262	922	+340	open	—	06-22 08:32
will graham platner drop out by july 8	12	$2.0K	1,466	1,466	+0	open	—	07-09 00:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-09 09:12
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	8	$1.9K	1,019	1,019	+0	open	—	02-22 07:44
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$1.6K	1,700	0	+1,700	open	—	02-23 11:45
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	5	$1.5K	922	922	+0	open	—	02-03 23:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,398	0	+1,398	No	+$46	05-07 20:38
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	6	$1.3K	2,057	48	+2,010	open	—	07-31 20:13
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	4	$1.3K	696	696	+0	open	—	01-11 10:56
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	8	$1.2K	2,324	2,324	+0	open	—	07-15 01:03
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$1.2K	1,390	0	+1,390	Yes	+$233	05-09 03:02
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	5	$1.0K	1,084	0	+1,084	open	—	01-14 23:11
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	13	$983	792	452	+340	open	—	07-01 00:14
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	03-05 12:56
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	5	$879	904	0	+904	open	—	01-23 22:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$834	1,067	400	+667	open	—	06-15 00:03
israel x syria security agreement by january 31	5	$809	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	01-06 19:59
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$785	500	500	+0	open	—	01-14 23:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$752	5,661	5,661	+0	Yes	$-73	05-05 22:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$736	956	0	+956	open	—	06-14 21:23
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	10	$705	364	364	+0	open	—	06-13 01:36
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	6	$687	1,982	1,428	+555	open	—	07-20 13:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 16:37:45	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	25	89¢	$23	0x19e1f8…
08-12 05:43:34	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xdd9db9…
08-11 17:36:25	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xb5a161…
08-10 20:56:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x6c81b7…
08-08 18:21:19	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x78740b…
08-08 18:20:54	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	140	35¢	$49	0xc0a95a…
08-08 18:20:51	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x443d53…
08-08 18:20:48	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x9fad1c…
08-08 08:45:34	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	375	98¢	$369	0x42ce26…
08-08 00:35:40	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x1833b6…
08-06 20:43:57	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	232	10¢	$23	0x52bc56…
08-06 14:30:11	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	250	89¢	$222	0x8e5898…
08-05 09:18:36	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xc3f0e5…
08-05 09:16:02	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9ee2cc…
08-05 09:14:20	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	BUY	375	20¢	$75	0x5e7822…
08-05 00:59:02	will susan collins vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821980	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x214f4b…
08-04 23:11:38	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	24	24¢	$6	0xab97ce…
08-04 23:03:03	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	208	24¢	$50	0x8fbb45…
08-04 05:19:24	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	465	22¢	$102	0xb7a44e…
08-03 04:38:26	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc335b6…
08-03 04:37:14	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	220	88¢	$194	0x4d2ea4…
08-01 21:15:39	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	97	0¢	$0	0x474259…
08-01 21:03:42	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x431d5d…
08-01 21:00:05	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	46	0¢	$0	0x4f0db4…
08-01 20:50:26	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	55	0¢	$0	0xe14337…
08-01 07:47:05	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xf74859…
08-01 06:06:59	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	SELL	166	49¢	$81	0xca44a9…
08-01 06:00:14	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	166	29¢	$49	0x2deb93…
08-01 05:03:38	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x40f1b9…
08-01 05:03:33	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x805515…
08-01 05:02:09	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xbd8385…
08-01 05:01:53	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x63e0e7…
08-01 04:32:35	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x14b69a…
08-01 04:24:54	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x96a3b5…
07-31 20:13:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	48	38¢	$18	0x79a80d…
07-31 19:45:32	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1,053	38¢	$395	0xf44d19…
07-31 08:01:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	254	85¢	$216	0xc3a84f…
07-31 08:00:44	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x875b61…
07-31 07:55:39	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x385462…
07-31 05:23:53	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	705	90¢	$634	0x818935…
07-31 05:12:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xf6ce48…
07-30 11:19:17	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	41	60¢	$25	0x779c4d…
07-30 11:17:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0x7a4b4d…
07-30 11:16:29	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x307194…
07-30 11:16:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x8b4360…
07-30 11:16:03	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	35	60¢	$21	0xa92c83…
07-30 11:15:27	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	9	60¢	$6	0xd8c5a7…
07-30 11:15:27	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb526f2…
07-30 11:15:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xfd421b…
07-30 11:15:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	38	60¢	$23	0x07b6a5…
07-30 08:41:51	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	286	31¢	$89	0x01e742…
07-30 08:37:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x66104e…
07-30 08:17:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	513	90¢	$462	0x40c7ce…
07-30 07:11:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x41f27b…
07-30 07:08:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x7d9deb…
07-30 07:04:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x6598ab…
07-29 23:36:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xa17939…
07-29 23:27:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	26	47¢	$12	0x266818…
07-29 12:59:53	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	132	84¢	$111	0xfa8a92…
07-29 12:47:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x009645…
07-29 12:37:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xc1c51b…
07-29 12:26:59	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xc0a47e…
07-28 22:50:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$9	0x940589…
07-28 22:32:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x1630ee…
07-28 22:24:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	Yes	BUY	115	22¢	$25	0x18eb54…
07-28 20:57:41	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	1,014	0¢	$3	0x34a9b8…
07-27 09:49:54	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	342	2¢	$7	0xa1f791…
07-27 09:49:30	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	310	2¢	$7	0x6d7c77…
07-27 09:35:15	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	101	3¢	$3	0xd66ff7…
07-27 09:27:34	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	550	3¢	$19	0x96a20b…
07-25 03:41:55	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	168	21¢	$35	0xca691d…
07-25 03:31:37	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	23¢	$7	0x21c983…
07-25 03:30:15	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x547e2b…
07-25 03:30:06	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x33f431…
07-25 03:01:15	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	38¢	$16	0xe1c333…
07-25 02:59:37	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	225	37¢	$83	0xf9eac8…
07-25 02:24:18	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	117	93¢	$109	0x924d31…
07-25 00:08:09	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x5431ee…
07-24 04:33:12	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	113	24¢	$27	0x5a6ae4…
07-24 04:33:00	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xc30b44…
07-20 13:44:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	41¢	$32	0x39d74a…
07-20 11:57:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	476	50¢	$238	0xd343a4…
07-20 10:49:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	952	20¢	$190	0x9e6de0…
07-20 09:55:31	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,739	12¢	$209	0x711779…
07-20 09:44:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x820278…
07-20 09:40:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	156	11¢	$17	0x30869c…
07-19 03:23:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0xb86707…
07-19 00:17:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,000	12¢	$240	0xb0ab07…
07-18 03:07:22	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	174	63¢	$110	0x1f493a…
07-17 09:34:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,014	13¢	$130	0xaf00a1…
07-17 01:05:53	will trump say maduro during speech to the nation 20260713200621437	Yes	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0xffc2de…
07-16 08:41:40	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	BUY	500	97¢	$485	0x7bc51e…
07-15 01:04:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	628	100¢	$626	0x13a5cc…
07-15 01:03:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	114	15¢	$18	0x32606d…
07-15 00:34:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x36afa2…
07-15 00:17:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	1,511	3¢	$45	0x1fdebd…
07-15 00:16:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	906	3¢	$27	0x6c1cab…
07-15 00:15:37	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0xe2b90e…
07-15 00:15:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	102	18¢	$18	0xa33bd7…
07-15 00:14:37	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	95	18¢	$17	0x83d932…