Outlandish-Mantel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$195

Unrealized P&L

+$22

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

Trades

622

lifetime

Volume

$73.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$119

Open exposure

$33

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 13:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-15

Politics

38% 80% +$210

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes		-333	$-56	10¢	$-33	+$22	05-28 09:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	16	$6.3K	4,016	4,016	+0	open	—	02-14 04:45
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for denmark by feburary 1	19	$6.3K	3,363	3,363	+0	open	—	01-29 12:18
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$4.1K	2,485	2,485	+0	open	—	05-11 20:27
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	5	$3.1K	3,149	0	+3,149	open	—	03-08 21:14
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	6	$3.0K	1,732	2,531	-799	open	—	05-16 01:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	03-14 23:05
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	3	$2.4K	1,228	1,228	-0	open	—	07-15 01:04
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	12	$2.3K	2,407	0	+2,407	open	—	02-09 21:20
starmer out by june 22 2026	10	$2.1K	1,262	922	+340	open	—	06-22 08:32
will graham platner drop out by july 8	12	$2.0K	1,466	1,466	+0	open	—	07-09 00:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-09 09:12
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	8	$1.9K	1,019	1,019	+0	open	—	02-22 07:44
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$1.6K	1,700	0	+1,700	open	—	02-23 11:45
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	5	$1.5K	922	922	+0	open	—	02-03 23:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,398	0	+1,398	No	+$46	05-07 20:38
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	4	$1.3K	696	696	+0	open	—	01-11 10:56
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	8	$1.2K	2,324	2,324	+0	open	—	07-15 01:03
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$1.2K	1,390	0	+1,390	Yes	+$233	05-09 03:02
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	5	$1.0K	1,084	0	+1,084	open	—	01-14 23:11
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	13	$983	792	452	+340	open	—	07-01 00:14
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	03-05 12:56
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	5	$879	904	0	+904	open	—	01-23 22:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$834	1,067	400	+667	open	—	06-15 00:03
israel x syria security agreement by january 31	5	$809	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	01-06 19:59
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$785	500	500	+0	open	—	01-14 23:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$752	5,661	5,661	+0	Yes	$-73	05-05 22:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$736	956	0	+956	open	—	06-14 21:23
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	10	$705	364	364	+0	open	—	06-13 01:36
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	6	$687	1,982	1,428	+555	open	—	07-20 13:44
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	7	$672	400	400	+0	open	—	05-20 11:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 13:44:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	41¢	$32	0x39d74a…
07-20 11:57:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	476	50¢	$238	0xd343a4…
07-20 10:49:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	952	20¢	$190	0x9e6de0…
07-20 09:55:31	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,739	12¢	$209	0x711779…
07-20 09:44:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x820278…
07-20 09:40:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	156	11¢	$17	0x30869c…
07-19 03:23:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0xb86707…
07-19 00:17:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,000	12¢	$240	0xb0ab07…
07-18 03:07:22	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	174	63¢	$110	0x1f493a…
07-17 09:34:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,014	13¢	$130	0xaf00a1…
07-17 01:05:53	will trump say maduro during speech to the nation 20260713200621437	Yes	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0xffc2de…
07-16 08:41:40	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	BUY	500	97¢	$485	0x7bc51e…
07-15 01:04:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	628	100¢	$626	0x13a5cc…
07-15 01:03:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	114	15¢	$18	0x32606d…
07-15 00:34:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x36afa2…
07-15 00:17:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	1,511	3¢	$45	0x1fdebd…
07-15 00:16:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	906	3¢	$27	0x6c1cab…
07-15 00:15:37	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0xe2b90e…
07-15 00:15:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	102	18¢	$18	0xa33bd7…
07-15 00:14:37	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	95	18¢	$17	0x83d932…
07-15 00:13:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	1,000	20¢	$201	0x500bb8…
07-15 00:12:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	90	20¢	$18	0x4a3fa7…
07-15 00:11:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x8198e0…
07-14 21:57:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	1,076	1¢	$10	0xb7b5db…
07-14 21:37:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	231	25¢	$58	0x3121ce…
07-14 21:36:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	287	25¢	$72	0xd4242e…
07-14 21:35:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	581	26¢	$154	0x2d9a27…
07-14 21:30:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	2,324	28¢	$659	0x08677c…
07-14 05:31:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	2,417	7¢	$169	0xce4196…
07-13 06:56:29	Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	614	2¢	$13	0x17cb1b…
07-12 18:21:37	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x0aecab…
07-12 13:34:59	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in july 20260626154217427	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x6696a2…
07-12 07:58:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	800	6¢	$50	0xf957ec…
07-12 07:40:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	276	6¢	$17	0x5fd244…
07-11 10:44:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	3,415	3¢	$89	0x66aeb0…
07-11 09:53:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	305	6¢	$20	0x78087a…
07-11 09:53:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	810	6¢	$52	0xd27381…
07-11 02:17:32	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x803cb0…
07-09 21:51:47	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xca2c32…
07-09 20:48:14	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x8d0194…
07-09 00:15:26	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	1,463	99¢	$1,448	0xb9490b…
07-09 00:15:20	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7955d8…
07-09 00:15:11	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x43a000…
07-09 00:10:49	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	1,266	39¢	$500	0xffb8d4…
07-08 23:27:13	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x724166…
07-08 23:26:47	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x08a3ee…
07-08 23:26:22	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	70	35¢	$24	0xf14b52…
07-08 23:25:55	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3305c7…
07-08 20:19:29	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	23	58¢	$13	0x3aec90…
07-08 20:19:07	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xbf84c3…
07-08 20:19:02	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0xe8cedb…
07-08 20:19:02	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x64f015…
07-08 08:50:40	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	122	30¢	$37	0x5731f2…
07-08 08:50:22	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	178	30¢	$53	0x490b33…
07-07 08:33:40	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	No	BUY	79	93¢	$74	0x161772…
07-06 21:22:23	will graham platner drop out by july 17	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x2febf2…
07-06 21:18:17	will graham platner drop out by july 31	Yes	BUY	49	91¢	$45	0x46ed4c…
07-06 21:18:01	will graham platner drop out by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x0b584d…
07-06 21:17:47	will graham platner drop out by july 17	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xcaa8bf…
07-06 09:11:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	2,300	8¢	$184	0xc9f5b1…
07-04 17:07:19	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0x7bb593…
07-04 10:30:01	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xa83a04…
07-04 04:24:11	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x28c724…
07-03 07:55:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	600	94¢	$567	0x205ead…
07-01 00:14:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	143	88¢	$126	0x29ba91…
07-01 00:14:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	54	88¢	$47	0xcc0ccb…
07-01 00:07:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	68	88¢	$60	0xd0776b…
07-01 00:07:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x4259b2…
07-01 00:07:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0x2e4e5d…
07-01 00:06:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x181456…
07-01 00:06:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x7daefd…
06-30 23:59:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	213	97¢	$207	0x66f2b4…
06-30 23:58:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	143	97¢	$139	0xd36abd…
06-30 23:56:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	76	89¢	$68	0x23bac3…
06-30 23:56:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe224a1…
06-30 23:54:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	58	90¢	$52	0x1bda56…
06-30 23:54:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0xfac238…
06-30 23:16:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	238	66¢	$157	0x726781…
06-30 23:11:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x8c0302…
06-30 22:48:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,228	95¢	$1,165	0xf26fcd…
06-30 22:35:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	118	68¢	$80	0x40f43c…
06-30 22:28:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0x5992b7…
06-30 22:28:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x0e3220…
06-30 04:55:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	43	66¢	$28	0x0c88d6…
06-30 04:54:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x524df6…
06-28 02:10:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	143	43¢	$61	0xc2f09b…
06-27 03:18:47	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	506	2¢	$10	0x20e90c…
06-27 03:18:31	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0xda5710…
06-27 03:18:10	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0xe253a7…
06-27 01:42:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	500	78¢	$390	0x5c2647…
06-26 13:00:47	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x03f100…
06-26 09:41:52	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x37a064…
06-26 08:39:44	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	506	4¢	$19	0x0232f2…
06-22 23:58:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	82	23¢	$19	0x36a02d…
06-22 21:02:31	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x0d08cc…
06-22 20:35:28	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x6cdb27…
06-22 08:32:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	907	99¢	$895	0xc3b3fa…
06-22 08:30:25	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	340	98¢	$334	0xb6ed4d…
06-22 08:15:37	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	229	96¢	$220	0xec8311…
06-22 08:14:10	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	61	98¢	$59	0xd774f1…