Lanky-Warfare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.03K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

268

Trades

1,384

lifetime

Volume

$205.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$148

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-25 23:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

50% 37% -$2,191

Other

40% 51% +$403

Crypto

9% 78% -$500

Sports

1% 67% +$366

Tech

0% 67% -$106

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	22	$14.7K	13,320	14,096	-776	Yes	+$12,504	02-28 16:48
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	44	$13.4K	10,480	10,480	+0	Yes	+$5,417	03-09 13:53
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	45	$8.8K	23,096	23,096	+0	Yes	+$1,976	10-17 13:15
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	44	$6.1K	42,326	749	+41,577	No	-$5,156	03-09 20:15
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$4.8K	3,537	3,537	+0	Yes	+$1,093	03-08 17:08
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	23	$4.5K	5,837	5,837	+0	Yes	-$64	03-09 15:43
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	19	$3.7K	23,065	23,065	+0	No	-$2,679	03-09 19:11
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	5	$3.2K	2,161	2,161	+0	No	+$187	10-14 20:57
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	7	$3.0K	9,505	9,505	+0	No	+$167	02-28 16:30
sea rom mil 2026 01 25 draw	18	$2.9K	1,598	2,477	-879	Yes	+$926	01-25 21:59
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	11	$2.8K	3,547	3,547	+0	No	-$542	03-08 19:48
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 16:45 UTC	10	$2.7K	1,389	1,387	+2	Up	+$87	01-08 16:58
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	13	$2.5K	17,025	0	+17,025	Yes	-$2,524	03-09 20:15
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	6	$2.4K	21,311	21,311	+0	No	-$199	03-09 19:11
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	35	$2.4K	38,151	0	+38,151	No	-$2,441	03-06 19:41
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	23	$2.3K	13,744	13,744	+0	No	+$301	03-07 08:30
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$2.3K	2,435	2,435	+0	No	-$10	03-09 14:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$2.3K	18,016	18,016	+0	No	-$416	03-09 16:56
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	17	$2.3K	13,048	989	+12,059	No	-$1,454	10-25 23:41
will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	6	$2.2K	60,072	60,072	+0	No	-$837	02-25 17:52
Iran leadership change by March 13?	6	$2.0K	9,741	9,741	+0	No	-$97	03-09 14:44
lal ala bet 2026 01 25 ala	4	$2.0K	1,063	1,063	+0	Yes	+$98	01-25 21:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 16:30 UTC	3	$2.0K	1,857	520	+1,337	Up	-$231	01-08 16:43
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	3	$1.9K	1,210	1,210	+0	Yes	+$493	03-02 09:24
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$1.8K	1,268	1,268	+0	Yes	+$38	05-30 17:23
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 draw	3	$1.8K	901	1,509	-608	No	+$322	01-25 18:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	3	$1.8K	970	970	+0	No	+$49	03-03 04:36
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$1.6K	5,759	2,418	+3,341	No	-$318	03-07 08:31
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	4	$1.5K	1,207	1,207	+0	Yes	+$134	01-14 20:54
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 ars	5	$1.5K	1,357	1,357	+0	No	+$101	01-25 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:41:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0xc35311…
10-25 23:34:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	3,955	3¢	$113	0xe7cc97…
10-25 23:33:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,789	6¢	$114	0x7644d0…
10-25 23:21:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	2,074	12¢	$242	0xa5893d…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	89	93¢	$83	0x7d8ed6…
10-25 23:20:45	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	169	94¢	$159	0xa13080…
10-25 23:15:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,789	11¢	$195	0x551a10…
10-25 23:14:39	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	SELL	223	84¢	$187	0xcacb8c…
10-25 23:06:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,978	10¢	$200	0x9f91ba…
10-25 23:06:21	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0x5a7787…
10-25 23:06:02	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	42	92¢	$39	0xcc1315…
10-25 23:05:36	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	150	91¢	$137	0x7e94d0…
10-25 23:00:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	990	20¢	$198	0x9213fb…
10-25 22:58:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	SELL	213	93¢	$198	0x07b8c7…
10-25 22:44:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,331	31¢	$416	0xbf269f…
10-25 22:43:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	SELL	436	94¢	$408	0xf4108c…
10-25 22:30:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	252	20¢	$50	0x6002ca…
10-25 22:28:36	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x69cc9a…
10-25 22:28:20	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x4966cb…
10-25 22:28:03	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x3621e1…
10-17 13:47:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	360	41¢	$148	0x7661f6…
10-17 13:46:38	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	BUY	183	82¢	$150	0x941769…
10-17 13:45:59	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	143	29¢	$42	0xa280a0…
10-17 13:45:20	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	BUY	1,531	31¢	$469	0xf40ccd…
10-17 13:44:59	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	834	26¢	$214	0x1cca84…
10-17 13:44:23	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	80	15¢	$12	0xd32fd1…
10-17 13:43:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,624	23¢	$375	0xec58b9…
10-17 13:26:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by October 31?	No	SELL	72	9¢	$6	0x1c8379…
10-17 13:26:03	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	1,365	1¢	$12	0x4a5a65…
10-17 13:25:57	Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	5,527	0¢	$11	0x545b6b…
10-17 13:15:59	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	5,151	5¢	$264	0x732366…
10-17 13:15:41	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	5,151	8¢	$404	0xc918b8…
10-16 19:28:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by October 31?	No	BUY	72	12¢	$9	0xe02fe9…
10-16 19:28:17	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x0040d4…
10-16 19:20:28	Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	421	1¢	$6	0x7b896c…
10-16 19:14:37	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	5,801	17¢	$1,006	0x523663…
10-16 19:13:29	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	403	84¢	$337	0x75fe8a…
10-16 19:11:50	Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	SELL	439	91¢	$400	0x23c988…
10-16 19:11:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	220	94¢	$208	0x7f885a…
10-16 18:36:36	Will AC Horsens vs. Randers FC end in a draw?	No	SELL	311	35¢	$108	0x7891d7…
10-16 15:49:09	Will AC Horsens vs. Randers FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	623	74¢	$461	0xdd3515…
10-16 15:47:00	Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,025	1¢	$10	0x347ccd…
10-16 15:46:21	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	689	1¢	$10	0xf9fa30…
10-16 11:18:18	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	3,400	9¢	$308	0x4d2f0a…
10-15 19:09:32	Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-10-15?	No	SELL	266	100¢	$266	0x6b2446…
10-15 19:08:14	Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	548	3¢	$17	0xba6691…
10-15 19:07:13	Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	3,533	1¢	$25	0xa94fbd…
10-15 18:30:58	Exact Score: FC Lugano 2 - 2 FK Crvena zvezda?	Yes	BUY	509	83¢	$420	0xf73702…
10-15 18:21:10	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	SELL	116	83¢	$97	0x363a61…
10-15 18:20:49	Will FC Lugano vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?	No	SELL	171	76¢	$130	0x64e96c…
10-15 18:17:53	Will FC Lugano vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?	No	SELL	171	75¢	$128	0x559667…
10-15 18:16:23	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	SELL	116	80¢	$93	0x216107…
10-15 18:15:07	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	SELL	233	80¢	$185	0xb6e36c…
10-15 18:03:08	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	SELL	466	76¢	$354	0x5f287e…
10-15 17:18:55	Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-10-15?	No	BUY	266	91¢	$242	0x628406…
10-15 17:18:26	Will FC Lugano vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?	No	SELL	342	80¢	$274	0x055d2c…
10-15 16:51:44	Will FC Lugano vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?	No	BUY	497	74¢	$368	0xf7b112…
10-15 16:51:08	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	690	68¢	$469	0x5c92bc…
10-15 16:46:53	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	SELL	156	95¢	$148	0x0603ea…
10-15 16:46:14	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	90¢	$68	0x011373…
10-15 16:46:07	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	87¢	$78	0xc82fb8…
10-15 16:08:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	984	41¢	$403	0xf66465…
10-15 16:05:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc71a44…
10-15 16:05:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x2edc4b…
10-15 13:56:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	112	91¢	$102	0x8ef5e9…
10-15 13:56:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$8	0x7e1b17…
10-15 13:56:35	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0x5a324a…
10-15 13:22:22	Will FC Lugano vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?	No	BUY	188	74¢	$139	0x2d6ab8…
10-15 13:21:55	Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	241	70¢	$169	0x217cf1…
10-15 10:46:48	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1,101	9¢	$98	0x7386db…
10-15 10:17:46	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$13	0xd35b36…
10-15 09:21:44	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb66244…
10-15 09:20:49	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0x9c3efd…
10-15 09:20:11	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x29736f…
10-15 09:10:35	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	120	85¢	$102	0x3b1abe…
10-15 09:10:22	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xed2699…
10-15 09:09:28	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	222	86¢	$190	0x140149…
10-15 09:09:04	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	176	85¢	$150	0x84032b…
10-15 09:08:08	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x75638d…
10-14 20:57:28	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	No	SELL	872	100¢	$871	0x91853c…
10-14 20:18:52	Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	No	SELL	449	69¢	$310	0xc60198…
10-14 20:18:24	Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	No	SELL	253	71¢	$180	0xeefb45…
10-14 19:36:57	Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	No	BUY	702	71¢	$500	0x81f49a…
10-14 19:34:04	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	No	SELL	872	62¢	$541	0xbbabe5…
10-14 19:04:33	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	No	BUY	1,744	70¢	$1,221	0x514568…
10-14 18:55:52	Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	SELL	260	94¢	$243	0xefa6dc…
10-14 18:55:30	Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	SELL	710	94¢	$664	0xd1aec0…
10-14 18:51:49	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x4f13e5…
10-14 18:26:12	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	SELL	104	79¢	$82	0x7ee34e…
10-14 18:02:42	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	SELL	208	74¢	$154	0x34538e…
10-14 17:21:15	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	BUY	416	69¢	$287	0xa2f10d…
10-14 17:20:25	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	No	SELL	417	71¢	$296	0xdcc5c1…
10-14 17:01:28	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by october 310728191327780	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xdaf082…
10-14 15:18:21	Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK end in a draw?	No	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0xb58c84…
10-14 14:38:36	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by october 310728191327780	No	SELL	400	10¢	$39	0xf892d7…
10-14 13:00:45	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by october 310728191327780	No	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x395d81…
10-14 12:55:14	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x2e118b…
10-14 12:44:50	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	3,781	10¢	$378	0xaef07f…
10-14 08:35:55	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1,611	12¢	$193	0x7ab3fc…
10-13 20:34:10	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	256	4¢	$10	0x2762e7…