Sarcastic-Sake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$104

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

113

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$469

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-05

last 11-01 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Politics

41% 85% -$104

Other

37% 98% -$1

Pop-Culture

11% 100% +$0

Sports

10% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+2	$2	97¢	$2	$0	10-26 21:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1	$50	2,500	0	+2,500	No	-$50	02-05 22:50
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	13	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-02 16:09
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	1	$47	1,208	0	+1,208	No	-$47	02-05 22:51
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	10	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	04-29 21:43
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-26 11:09
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	3	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	08-02 16:08
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-12 23:56
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-27 20:28
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-12 06:10
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-04 03:38
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-11 14:56
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 00:17
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-03 05:00
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-12 01:10
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	-$5	06-01 08:04
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-13 00:59
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	06-04 21:08
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	-$5	05-14 01:02
will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-10 16:13
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	06-01 04:00
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-27 20:28
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	06-14 22:00
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-14 23:36
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-03 06:05
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-27 20:28
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-31 17:08
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-13 12:06
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-01 04:00
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	05-12 06:40
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	08-29 01:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 08:22:01	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x935a90…
11-01 00:13:28	Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x13974e…
10-31 03:21:37	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x47321a…
10-26 21:32:20	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7eebaf…
10-25 00:03:48	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x32138c…
10-08 00:13:28	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x857a9b…
10-08 00:13:26	Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc8459a…
10-08 00:13:25	Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3f0e42…
10-08 00:13:23	Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x83d303…
10-08 00:13:23	Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6d49bb…
10-08 00:13:22	Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdb51f1…
10-08 00:13:20	Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x555c8c…
10-08 00:13:19	Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b620a…
10-08 00:13:17	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd51fd7…
10-04 22:17:38	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfa623b…
10-04 03:30:22	Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6111bf…
10-04 01:43:44	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xfdffc3…
10-03 20:54:14	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x603a6e…
10-03 20:54:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x758b14…
09-30 15:12:11	Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2c052c…
09-29 21:43:29	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x62befd…
09-29 00:18:44	Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbdc9c8…
09-29 00:18:24	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf1eefb…
09-29 00:03:21	Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x24923f…
09-29 00:03:18	Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf34334…
09-18 04:50:01	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4e064a…
09-18 04:50:00	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0e1d6e…
09-18 01:25:06	Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x70d016…
09-18 00:24:03	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8662ef…
09-12 13:10:48	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa2bc8f…
09-12 13:10:34	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc9608e…
09-11 20:39:01	Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x884376…
09-11 20:23:45	Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc917de…
09-09 20:05:46	Will Justin Fields start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xba33bf…
09-07 00:34:42	Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd6894e…
09-06 00:19:03	Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb26d55…
08-31 14:40:07	Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7efd0a…
08-30 18:48:21	Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 24?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x127a2b…
08-30 17:31:45	Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x712c97…
08-30 13:26:19	Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8afb38…
08-29 01:49:43	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xef4ac2…
08-09 04:59:40	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x9d78e9…
08-09 04:59:39	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x410d84…
08-09 03:12:37	Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x60aebb…
08-09 02:42:01	Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x41686b…
08-03 09:16:48	Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc24520…
08-03 06:58:27	Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc1361f…
08-02 20:44:45	Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x006227…
08-02 16:08:27	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xfc7fa1…
08-02 16:08:23	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5ae042…
08-02 10:00:15	Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1d7d3d…
08-02 01:49:45	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd6b7a3…
08-02 01:03:44	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe3eef0…
06-28 03:20:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc80ba1…
06-28 02:49:50	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x4086a5…
06-28 02:49:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x45b5e4…
06-28 02:19:08	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x33d970…
06-28 00:47:17	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7af4e8…
06-26 11:09:17	Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xce4508…
06-26 09:37:43	Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf02f2b…
06-26 08:06:10	Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xaa1e33…
06-26 07:35:37	Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x70e670…
06-26 00:13:16	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x52f624…
06-26 00:13:01	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x709421…
06-25 22:10:47	Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9671b0…
06-22 00:20:52	Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x801b0e…
06-18 11:59:53	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x95f3ee…
06-18 11:59:52	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x851cb3…
06-18 04:06:32	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xda007f…
06-16 19:48:38	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb491c7…
06-14 23:36:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe23644…
06-14 22:00:31	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xea3e04…
06-12 01:10:22	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcdf6eb…
06-04 21:08:18	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb581b5…
06-04 03:38:13	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd1e932…
06-03 06:05:32	Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfd083c…
06-03 05:00:50	Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbbb4fe…
06-01 08:04:53	Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3ec867…
06-01 04:00:12	Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf4939c…
06-01 04:00:10	Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf4530b…
05-31 17:08:30	Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcb7ba8…
05-28 00:17:39	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6fe0c2…
05-27 20:28:57	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4e874d…
05-27 20:28:52	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2c2667…
05-27 20:28:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x53c73f…
05-14 01:02:23	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x789889…
05-13 12:06:57	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7486d3…
05-13 00:59:00	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x90495f…
05-12 23:56:16	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfe1cff…
05-12 06:40:55	Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xc87898…
05-12 06:10:22	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x850d02…
05-11 14:56:47	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd6e932…
05-10 07:07:25	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1775a9…
05-10 00:16:14	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5516fe…
05-04 10:03:54	Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xb96d06…
05-03 15:34:24	Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x04320b…
05-02 16:09:08	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x48aa75…
05-01 04:38:12	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xaff78a…
05-01 04:38:12	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x926d89…
05-01 04:23:00	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xed521a…