Anguished-Fear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

Trades

114

lifetime

Volume

$203

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 10-05 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

68% 59% -$3

Politics

30% 75% +$25

Tech

2% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No		+2	$1	74¢	$1	+$0	05-26 05:24
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Yes		+4	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-18 08:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$31	30	30	+0	No	+$29	05-18 03:51
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	2	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$2	05-26 02:32
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?	2	$11	7	7	+0	No	+$1	05-22 12:12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-01 04:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-02 04:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-18 03:51
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$6	30	0	+30	No	-$6	05-15 04:07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$2	05-27 07:14
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	06-03 07:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$3	71	54	+17	No	+$1	05-26 05:22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?	4	$3	5	2	+3	Yes	-$1	05-13 07:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	05-12 06:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	06-02 06:03
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?	3	$3	7	1	+6	No	-$1	05-26 07:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$3	9	9	+0	No	+$1	05-21 06:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	05-27 06:10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	05-21 06:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 08:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-01 03:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$2	2	2	+0	No	+$0	06-04 03:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$2	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-19 05:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-01 03:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-18 03:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-15 03:39
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-20 13:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-01 04:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-29 03:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-30 07:51
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$2	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-20 04:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-15 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 04:00:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc95516…
10-05 03:58:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x87cb2b…
07-20 13:15:48	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xc8e1d3…
06-30 07:52:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa4c433…
06-30 07:52:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc0cb8d…
06-30 07:51:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdab669…
06-24 03:20:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x085913…
06-24 03:19:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe2e7eb…
06-24 03:17:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x94d98e…
06-15 03:41:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xba32fe…
06-15 03:39:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x64bc69…
06-15 03:39:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x260668…
06-05 08:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x3c5773…
06-05 08:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc59e09…
06-04 08:53:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2da783…
06-04 03:48:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0xbe66e3…
06-04 03:47:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9e67d9…
06-04 03:46:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x063ff8…
06-04 03:46:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xed8cd4…
06-04 03:46:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x4dc351…
06-03 07:59:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xbfd0e4…
06-03 07:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf63de3…
06-03 03:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0ff18f…
06-02 08:44:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x03d9b8…
06-02 08:44:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x82d820…
06-02 06:03:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?	Yes	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x88a216…
06-02 04:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4151a4…
06-01 04:42:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xabb539…
06-01 04:42:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8b8df9…
06-01 03:53:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbc2e3f…
06-01 03:53:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc74a58…
06-01 03:49:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x4522f5…
06-01 03:46:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xddf5f6…
06-01 03:45:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9a6408…
06-01 03:40:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdd91c5…
06-01 03:39:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x81e5da…
06-01 03:39:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x56299b…
05-29 06:18:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf50b12…
05-29 06:18:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x603b21…
05-29 03:38:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9b7432…
05-29 03:22:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd39fc8…
05-29 03:15:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb3d70e…
05-29 03:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa21690…
05-29 03:14:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x274d31…
05-29 03:12:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xeee347…
05-28 03:27:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x988dd4…
05-28 03:27:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7d473c…
05-28 03:25:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0402d5…
05-28 03:25:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb396ae…
05-27 07:22:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x41260f…
05-27 07:21:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xbe3dd1…
05-27 07:21:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb7d74e…
05-27 07:20:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd9fc3e…
05-27 07:20:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0056c9…
05-27 07:20:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x51fd45…
05-27 07:20:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd4b5e1…
05-27 07:20:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1651da…
05-27 07:20:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x65eeba…
05-27 07:14:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x7459e4…
05-27 06:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd657b4…
05-26 07:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa347dd…
05-26 07:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x37d3a1…
05-26 05:27:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe9c9c7…
05-26 05:26:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x68d367…
05-26 05:24:24	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x19e84e…
05-26 05:22:15	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xc5a64e…
05-26 05:21:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x3e89f3…
05-26 05:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6915df…
05-26 05:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2de0db…
05-26 05:14:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1817b9…
05-26 02:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8388c6…
05-22 12:12:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0xfd744a…
05-22 06:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x8401ec…
05-22 04:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x8814f6…
05-21 10:11:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0xca3f4d…
05-21 08:32:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb12d8e…
05-21 08:13:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4d7742…
05-21 06:59:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x01187c…
05-21 06:58:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd9dd21…
05-21 06:58:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xd44cec…
05-21 03:29:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x0b994a…
05-21 03:26:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x3c2288…
05-20 08:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x18aa99…
05-20 08:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	390	0¢	$1	0x6acefc…
05-20 04:04:15	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xe6cc5e…
05-20 04:03:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe79523…
05-20 04:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1857e4…
05-19 05:14:57	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0xc25aba…
05-18 10:44:10	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x18ceac…
05-18 10:44:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xba2a7a…
05-18 10:43:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9240cc…
05-18 10:43:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x011d21…
05-18 08:16:55	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x71ba25…
05-18 03:51:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7f13ce…
05-18 03:51:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb33c5f…
05-18 03:51:30	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x522a40…
05-15 04:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb0400e…
05-15 04:10:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb10e15…
05-15 04:08:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x641933…
05-15 04:07:59	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x1697d9…