Neighboring-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

Trades

316

lifetime

Volume

$1.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-22 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

45% 33% $-3

Other

41% 100% +$0

Crypto

11% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30?	No		-4	$-3	99¢	$-4	$-0	05-29 15:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	5	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	04-26 20:39
will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	2	$76	40	40	+0	open	—	04-15 08:20
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	3	$62	35	35	+0	open	—	03-23 18:40
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$59	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	04-13 20:14
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	3	$59	32	32	+0	open	—	03-23 18:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$55	35	35	+0	open	—	03-20 19:12
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	8	$46	65	0	+65	open	—	04-20 11:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$42	35	35	+0	open	—	04-05 06:27
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	2	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	04-07 22:06
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	4	$34	41	41	+0	open	—	03-20 21:35
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	2	$32	18	18	+0	open	—	06-22 16:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	04-13 23:50
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?	3	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	04-09 14:13
Will Trump say "America Last" in April?	3	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	04-26 08:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	04-07 23:08
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	5	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	05-10 11:21
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$24	18	18	+0	open	—	04-07 21:53
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	4	$22	19	19	+0	open	—	03-23 11:08
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	3	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	04-26 08:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$21	14	14	+0	open	—	04-12 07:24
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-25 19:51
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	5	$19	30	30	+0	open	—	06-22 18:06
will silver si hit low 50 by end of march	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-22 22:37
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-16 18:10
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve on january 29 2026	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	01-29 17:18
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-02 20:08
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 23:08
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	04-05 16:45
highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 14c	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	03-22 23:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 10	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 23:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 18:07:49	btc updown 5m 1782151500	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x42af5b…
06-22 18:06:58	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	SELL	17	20¢	$3	0x1fadd5…
06-22 17:03:50	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xc4d120…
06-22 16:48:02	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x41c77d…
06-22 16:46:08	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc5ee46…
06-22 16:44:05	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xe24db2…
06-22 16:43:49	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x237ee9…
06-22 16:43:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0xfe5d58…
06-20 09:27:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x2b088d…
06-06 14:42:15	ethereum up or down on june 6 2026	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xa31b6b…
06-02 20:02:29	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	No	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x9e8a14…
05-31 20:30:58	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x8358ee…
05-30 15:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xe9b895…
05-30 15:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfdfc20…
05-30 06:25:28	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xda79b9…
05-30 04:10:35	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xbe7f35…
05-30 03:29:41	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x5e9a37…
05-29 15:56:10	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0xbf0236…
05-29 15:40:09	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd1ef7d…
05-29 15:36:30	Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x5a45fa…
05-29 15:36:20	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc8d353…
05-18 19:33:10	Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" during Healthcare Affordability Events?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7dabed…
05-18 18:41:26	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xdeffd3…
05-17 19:43:08	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xcbb78e…
05-14 20:48:40	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x865ef5…
05-13 18:39:48	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x344ded…
05-10 11:21:07	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x0187f0…
05-09 13:37:09	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xc51a86…
05-09 04:08:38	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x24c7ca…
05-08 18:52:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x115160…
05-06 20:32:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf151ef…
05-06 20:31:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1d04f1…
05-06 20:03:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x4a8086…
05-05 07:07:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xc18d14…
05-05 07:07:52	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xf86653…
05-04 15:56:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xde6dab…
05-04 15:56:32	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x404b6e…
05-04 08:50:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xf606d8…
05-04 08:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc9499b…
05-04 08:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x41f3bb…
04-26 20:39:40	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x779e92…
04-26 20:39:18	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xe47c54…
04-26 20:39:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x6d268e…
04-26 08:04:16	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x63b6a7…
04-26 08:03:58	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xa79fde…
04-26 08:03:48	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x38df62…
04-26 08:03:38	Will Trump say "America Last" in April?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xf9f845…
04-25 19:41:28	Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x702a12…
04-24 19:46:06	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x408c04…
04-24 19:45:56	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x4295cf…
04-24 19:39:50	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x8d9e33…
04-24 19:01:00	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xea47c9…
04-24 19:00:54	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xc65b1c…
04-24 19:00:44	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa9fe04…
04-22 20:09:50	highest temperature in toronto on april 22 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc55618…
04-22 19:19:36	highest temperature in toronto on april 22 2026 19corhigher	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x9c36e3…
04-22 12:03:02	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xb704d3…
04-22 12:00:58	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf858b8…
04-22 12:00:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x6d7973…
04-21 22:23:20	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9f6772…
04-20 16:29:02	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x57ec28…
04-20 11:25:54	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd30998…
04-20 10:08:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x10b141…
04-20 10:04:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x19d4c7…
04-20 10:04:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x71dbe8…
04-20 10:04:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xa94c1e…
04-20 10:03:42	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x5799e7…
04-20 07:22:04	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x29b2df…
04-18 13:03:40	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x4ebf86…
04-18 13:03:30	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xbf84a9…
04-18 13:03:22	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x10bb88…
04-18 13:02:38	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc420af…
04-17 22:27:28	Will Trump say "Reverse Migration" in April?	No	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x8b4767…
04-16 20:59:52	bitcoin above 72k on april 23	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xabb262…
04-16 20:45:24	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 18corhigher	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x1cbcca…
04-16 20:42:28	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xdfd15a…
04-16 19:03:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x21ea75…
04-16 18:10:16	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa6c93d…
04-16 15:42:02	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x7ed044…
04-16 15:40:08	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x238e61…
04-15 22:03:12	bitcoin above 72k on april 16	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x0dc0be…
04-15 21:04:28	will trump say blockade during fox interview on wednesday	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe42f7c…
04-15 20:28:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7ea6aa…
04-15 08:28:26	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9563d7…
04-15 08:20:52	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf4d5c1…
04-15 08:20:42	will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x3e55c8…
04-14 20:21:38	will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x050533…
04-14 07:04:55	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa1101c…
04-14 06:15:41	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x110b89…
04-13 23:50:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$15	0x5b49de…
04-13 23:49:37	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x113b44…
04-13 23:31:35	btc updown 5m 1776123000	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x87f569…
04-13 23:31:35	btc updown 5m 1776123000	Down	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x53bc6a…
04-13 23:30:23	btc updown 5m 1776123000	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x23c7d8…
04-13 22:23:07	will bitcoin reach 76k april 13 19	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x48104c…
04-13 22:08:19	will trump say amsterdam during dinner with dutch royals	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xaa8a17…
04-13 22:05:25	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xc5b460…
04-13 21:49:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x624a93…
04-13 21:47:23	will trumps remarks not air 652	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xb4026c…
04-13 21:43:57	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x723032…