Double-Exaggeration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

1,037

Trades

1,381

lifetime

Volume

$53.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$368

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 10-26 13:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Sports

43% 56% -$17

Other

34% 43% -$574

Crypto

13% 42% -$1,304

Politics

9% 74% +$633

Tech

0% 100% +$25

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+672	$200	28¢	$188	-$12	10-08 21:16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+413	$100	17¢	$70	-$30	05-23 22:26
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	+172	$10	22¢	$38	+$28	06-01 14:52
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	+336	$50	11¢	$37	-$13	10-08 21:17
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+158	$30	22¢	$36	+$6	09-09 04:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles	3	$4.7K	2,343	2,343	+0	Baltimore Orioles	+$1	05-13 19:55
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	3	$4.0K	2,002	2,002	+0	No	+$0	05-12 19:39
Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	2	$3.4K	1,702	1,702	+0	No	+$0	05-23 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	4	$1.9K	1,644	1,644	+0	Down	+$276	05-27 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	5	$1.3K	1,562	1,562	+0	Up	+$84	05-27 00:28
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	1	$1000	1,062	0	+1,062	No	+$62	05-19 17:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$1000	1,113	0	+1,113	Down	-$1,000	05-27 00:04
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	4	$821	421	421	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$21	05-14 21:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$807	517	517	+0	No	+$207	06-05 07:27
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13?	3	$782	399	399	+0	Yes	+$14	05-13 20:57
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$722	498	498	+0	open	—	09-07 16:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$623	426	426	+0	No	+$223	05-31 20:00
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers	2	$603	303	303	+0	Milwaukee Brewers	+$3	05-14 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$600	2,333	0	+2,333	Up	-$600	05-27 00:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$589	423	423	+0	No	+$189	05-25 01:21
Will Racing de Santander achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season?	2	$560	280	280	+0	Yes	+$0	05-17 19:15
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16?	1	$500	503	0	+503	Yes	+$3	05-16 21:16
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$406	207	207	+0	No	+$6	06-02 15:29
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins	2	$403	203	203	+0	Minnesota Twins	+$3	05-14 20:20
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	1	$400	400	0	+400	Yes	+$0	06-20 01:43
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	4	$343	173	173	+0	Atlanta Braves	+$3	05-10 03:48
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?	3	$302	172	172	+0	Yes	+$42	06-01 18:13
Will Liam Lawson win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	2	$300	150	150	+0	No	+$0	05-23 20:08
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	1	$300	301	0	+301	Pittsburgh Pirates	+$1	05-21 19:43
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants	3	$244	124	124	+0	Pittsburgh Pirates	+$4	05-10 03:48
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$241	182	182	+0	Yes	+$41	06-06 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$231	147	147	+0	Down	+$31	05-26 23:59
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles	2	$215	115	115	+0	Baltimore Orioles	+$15	05-28 01:02
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$211	151	151	+0	Yes	+$91	07-07 00:17
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs	2	$209	109	109	+0	Cincinnati Reds	+$9	08-28 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 13:46:17	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x0d5066…
10-26 13:46:03	Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x70b764…
10-26 13:45:42	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1e44dc…
10-26 13:45:26	Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x8857ce…
10-26 13:45:18	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xb10abb…
10-26 13:45:03	Will FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x949105…
10-26 13:44:51	Will Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x76b5d1…
10-24 11:57:24	Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf82d62…
10-24 11:57:06	Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcaed47…
10-24 11:56:50	Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x40fc82…
10-24 11:56:09	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xf539cd…
10-24 11:55:45	Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x3d7541…
10-22 11:46:12	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xf72003…
10-22 11:45:50	Will Coventry City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x230b91…
10-22 11:44:48	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x3a0a22…
10-22 11:44:03	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xba83be…
10-22 11:43:54	Will Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x989dec…
10-22 11:43:39	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xb0d373…
10-22 11:43:26	Will Valencia CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xd8c17a…
10-22 11:43:09	Will Real Racing Club vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x2d3f7a…
10-22 11:43:02	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf16eed…
10-22 11:42:50	Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Málaga CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x964313…
10-13 22:30:27	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x363954…
10-13 22:30:10	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2a5706…
10-13 22:30:01	Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x635918…
10-13 22:29:52	Will Valencia CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc94335…
10-13 22:29:30	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x24fe4d…
10-13 22:29:21	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-10-16?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7cd7df…
10-13 22:10:49	Will Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Porto end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xcebe6a…
10-13 22:10:37	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x619633…
10-13 22:10:31	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x9702c1…
10-13 22:10:16	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x3e7b1c…
10-13 22:09:58	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x125a17…
10-13 22:09:43	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x03809b…
10-08 21:17:24	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	336	15¢	$50	0x4b2c97…
10-08 21:16:54	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	672	30¢	$200	0x7a407d…
10-06 11:51:36	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x994925…
10-06 11:51:24	Will Real Racing Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x2e912d…
10-06 11:51:00	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x34c608…
10-06 11:50:49	Will Elche CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd0a886…
10-06 11:50:36	Will Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xc524bf…
10-06 11:50:21	Will FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x757730…
10-06 11:50:06	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x681db4…
10-06 11:49:57	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xcfdb9f…
10-06 11:49:28	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x0ce173…
10-06 11:39:22	Will Estonia vs. Iceland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb5930c…
10-06 11:39:16	Will Switzerland vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x743aff…
10-06 11:39:07	Will Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbf8a50…
10-06 11:39:00	Will Scotland vs. Slovenia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x6ac853…
10-06 11:38:54	Will Albania vs. San Marino end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x5af687…
10-06 11:38:39	Will Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x26b5aa…
10-03 01:33:54	Will Moldova vs. Slovakia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x218e16…
10-03 01:33:45	Will Belarus vs. Finland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x263c08…
10-03 01:33:32	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x581f07…
09-29 00:02:36	Will Montenegro vs. Armenia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x705d9e…
09-29 00:02:24	Will Northern Ireland vs. Georgia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0126a3…
09-29 00:02:14	Will Ukraine vs. Hungary end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x63e8d4…
09-29 00:02:02	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Poland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x33e9d5…
09-29 00:01:54	Will Romania vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x552ce1…
09-29 00:01:44	Will France vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x0b7c0c…
09-29 00:01:35	Will Italy vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x2ea08c…
09-29 00:01:27	Will Cyprus vs. Latvia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xfd3378…
09-29 00:01:18	Will Germany win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xac3640…
09-29 00:01:06	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Israel end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x0bf7cb…
09-29 00:00:57	Will Portugal vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	64	23¢	$15	0x8ed66c…
09-29 00:00:45	Will Netherlands vs. Serbia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc72986…
09-29 00:00:27	Will Wales vs. Denmark end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xbfc93e…
09-29 00:00:20	Will Malta vs. Andorra end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x26c2bf…
09-29 00:00:09	Will Kosovo vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1d0fe5…
09-29 00:00:00	Will Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd84bdf…
09-28 23:59:51	Will Switzerland vs. Slovenia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2940c7…
09-28 23:59:42	Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5507c0…
09-28 23:59:33	Will North Macedonia vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x06afbc…
09-28 23:59:24	Will Iceland vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xcbca27…
09-28 23:59:15	Will Estonia vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2fcb76…
09-28 23:59:05	Will Belarus vs. San Marino end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x8c4d1e…
09-28 23:58:56	Will Croatia vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x8438ef…
09-28 23:58:47	Will Finland vs. Albania end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x3db005…
09-28 23:58:36	Will Faroe Islands vs. Slovakia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc0bb66…
09-28 23:58:29	Will Poland vs. Romania end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xced45c…
09-28 23:58:15	Will Hungary vs. Georgia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x272382…
09-28 23:58:06	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xba61d9…
09-28 23:57:57	Will Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x683e43…
09-28 23:57:50	Will Belgium vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x99b1d0…
09-28 23:57:35	Will France vs. Italy end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x3c56e8…
09-28 23:57:26	Will Cyprus vs. Armenia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x710583…
09-28 23:57:18	Will Latvia vs. Montenegro end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x04d608…
09-28 23:57:06	Will Kazakhstan vs. Moldova end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1e1239…
09-28 23:56:57	Will Malta vs. Gibraltar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x244689…
09-28 23:56:48	Will Israel vs. Kosovo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x015326…
09-28 23:56:39	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xfb8342…
09-28 23:56:30	Will Germany win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x85b8ae…
09-28 23:56:20	Will Wales vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xd7694b…
09-28 23:56:11	Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x5a6261…
09-28 23:56:02	Will Denmark vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb894ae…
09-28 23:55:42	Will Azerbaijan vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4c4530…
09-28 23:55:32	Will Luxembourg vs. Iceland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x942725…
09-28 23:55:24	Will Slovakia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf3d26b…
09-28 23:55:14	Will England win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x0f561d…
09-28 23:54:59	Will Finland vs. Belarus end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x0ca7ae…