Cloudy-Calico — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$33

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

80.8%

Resolved (90d)

1,722

Trades (90d)

2,409

4,945 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.54K

$9.97K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-30 17:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 172 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 72% -$108

Other

4% 76% +$34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	—	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	10-30 17:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in chengdu on march 26 2026 23c	3	$58	31	31	+0	No	-$2	03-26 07:00
highest temperature in ankara on march 20 2026 7c	3	$43	24	24	+0	Yes	+$3	03-20 16:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	11	$37	80	0	+80	Down	-$37	10-21 14:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 14:00 UTC	5	$30	21	11	+10	Up	+$1	07-11 14:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-12 14:00 UTC	4	$26	16	11	+5	Down	+$0	07-12 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	6	$26	27	15	+13	Down	-$14	05-12 12:29
highest temperature in ankara on march 20 2026 8c	2	$24	14	14	+0	No	+$4	03-20 16:17
highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 16c	8	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$9	03-25 07:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 07:40 UTC	5	$22	22	6	+16	Up	$0	04-17 07:44
highest temperature in shanghai on march 23 2026 16c	3	$22	22	22	+0	Yes	+$12	03-23 03:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-17 11:15 UTC	4	$21	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	07-17 11:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-09 11:15 UTC	4	$20	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	07-09 11:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 03:00 UTC	3	$20	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	07-10 03:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 11:30 UTC	6	$20	54	2	+52	Down	+$1	02-19 11:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 03:45 UTC	3	$20	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	07-15 03:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 10:30 UTC	5	$20	23	0	+23	Up	-$2	07-10 10:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 04:30 UTC	2	$20	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	07-16 04:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 11:45 UTC	4	$20	13	11	+2	Down	-$2	07-16 11:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-10 11:30 UTC	6	$19	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	07-10 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	11	$19	33	0	+33	Up	+$15	10-21 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	9	$19	22	0	+22	Down	+$0	05-07 11:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	5	$18	27	0	+27	Down	-$2	05-07 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:25 UTC	4	$18	33	33	+0	Down	-$4	03-13 14:29
highest temperature in shanghai on march 23 2026 15c	3	$17	15	15	+0	No	+$3	03-23 04:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 14:30 UTC	4	$17	30	0	+30	Up	+$5	02-19 14:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	5	$17	11	6	+5	Down	+$0	05-07 08:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	4	$17	22	0	+22	Down	$0	07-21 10:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	11	$17	32	0	+32	Down	-$2	04-25 10:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 04:45 UTC	6	$16	16	9	+7	Up	-$8	07-16 04:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-09 12:00 UTC	6	$16	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	07-09 12:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 17:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x41a631…
10-30 17:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x70e9db…
10-30 16:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd89c2c…
10-30 16:40:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe2dca5…
10-30 16:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5bd01f…
10-30 16:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x6d6bd9…
10-30 16:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x40b3c7…
10-30 15:43:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xf7d444…
10-30 15:18:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x1fc6f1…
10-30 14:48:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0252a8…
10-30 14:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x209fa4…
10-30 13:46:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x90ce8f…
10-30 13:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1c6ddd…
10-30 13:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1c6df1…
10-30 13:14:18	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0f305d…
10-30 12:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$2	0x4f5b17…
10-30 11:59:19	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe1fc6e…
10-30 11:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc9ac1c…
10-30 11:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x85355f…
10-30 11:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x7370c7…
10-30 11:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x19f33e…
10-30 11:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xdbda30…
10-30 11:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcfd353…
10-30 11:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x87bab6…
10-30 11:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x208475…
10-30 10:29:45	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x936bb7…
10-30 08:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x02bfb3…
10-30 08:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xf78f61…
10-30 08:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7b4df8…
10-30 08:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xb961bb…
10-30 08:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa0fde1…
10-30 08:29:18	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x07ce69…
10-30 08:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x17efb8…
10-30 08:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd3b899…
10-30 08:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x0028d2…
10-30 08:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa7bf4d…
10-30 08:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xa64bb8…
10-30 08:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd27645…
10-30 07:59:31	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9818f0…
10-30 07:59:19	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x898063…
10-30 07:51:52	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaa403c…
10-30 07:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4d3722…
10-30 07:18:10	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x93fdd7…
10-30 07:15:37	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x460045…
10-30 07:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd4402f…
10-30 06:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x602dac…
10-30 06:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x20ba88…
10-30 04:46:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xabb16c…
10-30 03:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3d6f6f…
10-30 03:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x518639…
10-29 23:14:49	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0987a9…
10-29 22:29:19	XRP Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x04340e…
10-29 21:59:42	XRP Up or Down - October 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4a7299…
10-29 21:44:18	XRP Up or Down - October 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4c415f…
10-29 21:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf3c3ae…
10-29 19:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf28626…
10-29 17:29:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb0be2c…
10-29 17:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x647e45…
10-29 17:29:19	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2eabf2…
10-29 17:14:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0b212f…
10-29 16:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x357a5e…
10-29 15:46:47	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x17050c…
10-29 14:59:17	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xae391c…
10-29 14:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3ddb8d…
10-29 14:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x46d2b6…
10-29 12:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x393548…
10-29 12:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd91649…
10-29 11:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x424aa3…
10-29 11:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x436808…
10-29 10:59:25	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x75f570…
10-29 10:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x18d49b…
10-29 10:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf81711…
10-29 09:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x25abb4…
10-29 09:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x06a64b…
10-29 08:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x74fa8e…
10-29 08:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x5e2860…
10-29 08:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x21d10c…
10-29 08:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x083533…
10-29 08:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xd86a74…
10-29 08:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf791eb…
10-29 08:29:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x379ae8…
10-29 08:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x92352a…
10-29 08:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x7276ca…
10-29 08:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x1906af…
10-29 08:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xbfaee5…
10-29 08:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x84715d…
10-29 08:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xeea94d…
10-29 08:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x61bda0…
10-29 08:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7ab081…
10-29 08:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe89279…
10-29 08:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xdeb171…
10-29 08:12:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6853d7…
10-29 08:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x509f47…
10-29 07:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x490d2c…
10-29 07:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x2bb592…
10-29 07:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xcf371e…
10-29 07:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x75fc34…
10-29 07:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x60e42a…
10-29 06:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0x209bf0…
10-29 06:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe487d7…