Pastel-Riding — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$85

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

297

3,295 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.54K

$47.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$69

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 10-01 01:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 109 days

Categories

Other

65% 38% -$207

Politics

31% 41% -$1,457

Tech

2% 27% -$80

Crypto

1% 50% -$162

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$169

Sports

0% 25% -$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No		+40	$19	80¢	$32	+$13	09-19 10:01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+40	$13	40¢	$16	+$3	08-10 17:32
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes		+35	$20	40¢	$14	-$6	09-24 20:06
will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	—	+57	$20	7¢	$4	-$16	08-12 10:39
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+20	$8	11¢	$2	-$6	08-13 16:36
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+36	-$9	3¢	$1	+$10	09-14 13:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	3	$5.2K	2,700	2,700	+0	No	+$145	03-31 21:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	15	$4.2K	3,720	3,720	+0	Yes	-$869	04-13 08:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	17	$2.4K	2,491	2,491	+0	Yes	-$103	04-13 08:17
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$858	620	620	+0	No	+$158	03-17 23:33
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	35	$712	500	500	+0	Yes	+$287	06-10 17:26
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11?	49	$681	499	499	+0	Yes	+$315	06-11 22:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$603	16,750	16,750	+0	Yes	-$67	04-14 05:16
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	2	$600	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$192	04-11 17:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?	37	$569	500	500	+0	Yes	+$429	06-12 21:13
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?	5	$520	400	400	+0	Yes	+$248	05-17 23:21
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?	31	$513	500	500	-0	Yes	+$296	06-10 13:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	9	$481	1,266	1,266	+0	No	-$122	04-20 14:22
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	21	$462	350	350	+0	No	+$203	05-30 17:38
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9?	22	$420	300	300	+0	Yes	+$179	06-09 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?	16	$418	300	300	+0	Yes	+$175	07-16 13:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$406	571	571	+0	No	+$6	04-08 06:14
aws service disrupted by march 31 623	11	$384	744	744	+0	Yes	-$67	03-18 16:44
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	5	$348	410	410	+0	Yes	+$62	04-07 21:06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$344	2,370	0	+2,370	Yes	-$344	04-20 14:48
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?	31	$332	499	499	+0	No	-$42	06-15 15:17
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 9?	13	$321	200	200	+0	Yes	+$78	07-09 17:42
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 21?	44	$318	535	35	+500	Yes	+$220	07-21 08:36
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 8?	23	$310	200	200	+0	Yes	+$89	07-09 00:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?	13	$310	300	300	+0	No	+$52	08-04 11:30
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?	12	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$96	06-15 20:11
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	5	$304	200	200	+0	No	+$76	05-28 04:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$299	196	196	+0	No	+$79	05-29 21:47
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 9?	8	$295	200	200	+0	Yes	+$102	07-09 17:45
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9?	15	$287	201	201	+0	Yes	+$114	06-09 21:03
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?	15	$278	200	200	+0	Yes	+$122	05-30 18:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 01:30:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x590fc5…
09-30 20:08:27	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?	No	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x28e429…
09-30 19:30:33	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xe42149…
09-24 20:06:36	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$11	0x760d3d…
09-24 19:37:56	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x3b45d8…
09-23 15:00:55	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x90cb71…
09-22 16:24:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	4¢	$2	0xb6c0a7…
09-22 16:24:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0x77d424…
09-22 16:21:10	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xe17d46…
09-22 16:21:09	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x34987a…
09-22 16:19:58	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xd44c88…
09-22 16:15:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x389f4a…
09-19 10:01:29	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0xa367ec…
09-17 17:13:12	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xfe1494…
09-17 17:13:12	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd568fa…
09-17 17:01:52	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	170	3¢	$5	0x355969…
09-17 16:55:48	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0xeb6d7b…
09-14 13:12:04	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0x90dfdd…
09-13 15:06:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xf9e40a…
09-13 11:39:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xd4de85…
09-04 16:25:18	will gpt 6 be released by september 15 2026	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7a03db…
09-04 06:26:48	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xcdd317…
09-02 06:52:43	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0x78fc4b…
09-01 19:21:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xe37775…
09-01 14:41:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x9963b4…
08-29 10:59:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xc6ffbe…
08-29 10:56:12	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x25503d…
08-26 10:08:25	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x1852ea…
08-20 20:19:00	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x573ae5…
08-20 16:18:03	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 31 2026 20260807172323134	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xf6be73…
08-20 14:39:43	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 31 2026 20260807172323134	No	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xc9f270…
08-17 12:15:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x55901a…
08-15 17:36:18	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0xe77f69…
08-14 04:36:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	19	45¢	$8	0x3fcaa6…
08-14 04:29:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0xa92a8b…
08-13 17:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf47e1f…
08-13 16:36:28	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x9569fd…
08-13 15:45:06	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x2b4558…
08-13 14:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x325ccc…
08-13 14:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0xbed411…
08-13 14:32:48	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x80f448…
08-13 14:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0xd9fb1b…
08-13 14:29:55	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4db734…
08-13 14:29:55	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x2df162…
08-13 14:29:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x4ff36a…
08-13 14:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x0bca6b…
08-13 14:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x1a9d9b…
08-13 10:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xf1e527…
08-13 10:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	38	28¢	$11	0xa0ce25…
08-13 10:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x94aaf5…
08-13 09:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x46cdb4…
08-13 09:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x15403a…
08-13 08:35:45	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x89cff3…
08-13 07:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x4aa46e…
08-13 06:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xf89b8f…
08-13 06:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	28	8¢	$2	0x8bb813…
08-13 06:31:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x22c310…
08-13 06:24:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x6bf682…
08-13 06:22:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xc1d144…
08-13 06:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	37	51¢	$19	0x707c04…
08-13 06:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa7d9f9…
08-13 06:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x55c1bb…
08-12 17:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x30fa12…
08-12 14:57:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xd12fac…
08-12 13:36:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xabd227…
08-12 10:39:36	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	42	35¢	$15	0xc23158…
08-12 07:01:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x6f99c6…
08-12 07:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x5f20c1…
08-12 07:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x8bdc2f…
08-12 06:58:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x0b45cd…
08-12 06:52:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xcfcf0c…
08-12 06:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x26a878…
08-11 16:54:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xd00957…
08-11 11:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x4fffa4…
08-11 11:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x9a0d40…
08-11 11:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0xc299ea…
08-11 11:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x824dfa…
08-11 11:16:48	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x8c9e5e…
08-11 11:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf91014…
08-11 10:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x535606…
08-11 09:20:34	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x2521ad…
08-11 09:20:31	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x0af315…
08-11 08:35:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0x0edb0a…
08-10 17:32:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0xa1fa6d…
08-10 16:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xf9d85b…
08-10 15:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x43ded3…
08-10 14:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x351709…
08-10 14:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x38bf11…
08-10 14:12:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	28¢	$20	0xe8cf5d…
08-10 13:42:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xa92f69…
08-10 13:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x99bb26…
08-10 13:40:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x62d5d7…
08-10 13:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xf75480…
08-10 13:27:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x59b39a…
08-10 13:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xadc987…
08-10 11:33:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x520cbe…
08-10 10:02:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xeb394d…
08-10 09:23:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x54148c…
08-10 09:23:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xea0d56…
08-10 09:23:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xba3df1…