Bare-Battalion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$113

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,217

lifetime

Volume

$7.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 05-19 22:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

51% 85% +$68

Other

38% 52% $-234

Tech

7% 75% +$53

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	5	$208	300	129	+171	open	—	05-18 17:19
will anthropic be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 417	4	$160	186	0	+186	open	—	04-24 18:39
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	4	$142	100	100	+0	Yes	+$12	05-03 14:06
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Powell" this week?	4	$139	220	40	+180	open	—	04-27 18:34
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	5	$135	222	45	+177	open	—	05-06 17:31
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	4	$133	100	100	+0	open	—	05-01 12:49
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	4	$130	100	70	+30	open	—	04-28 19:34
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	8	$123	390	390	+0	open	—	04-27 02:27
Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	3	$111	160	0	+160	Yes	+$49	05-12 21:13
Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	5	$103	156	0	+156	Yes	$-83	05-12 21:15
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	8	$96	413	413	+0	open	—	05-12 09:47
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	4	$94	118	118	+0	open	—	05-13 03:05
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	7	$88	212	212	+0	No	$-52	05-10 08:16
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$86	95	95	+0	open	—	05-13 03:08
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	10	$82	368	226	+142	open	—	04-18 11:50
will trump say jesus this week april 19	16	$77	108	70	+38	open	—	04-18 19:11
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Warsh" this week?	5	$74	260	200	+60	open	—	05-02 22:20
will trump say make america great again this week april 19	9	$73	50	40	+9	open	—	04-13 19:28
will anthropic be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 828	3	$73	111	0	+111	open	—	04-15 15:49
will trump say sleepy joe this week april 19	5	$72	50	47	+3	open	—	04-13 10:40
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	8	$72	49	49	+0	open	—	04-23 09:00
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (April 20 - 26)	8	$71	260	175	+85	open	—	04-26 18:53
Will Trump say "Midterm" this week?	2	$69	48	48	+0	Yes	+$7	05-04 03:51
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	3	$67	100	16	+84	open	—	05-01 09:26
will trump say negotiator during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	4	$67	60	52	+8	open	—	04-21 09:22
will trump say farmer during the white house easter egg roll	9	$65	84	68	+16	open	—	04-05 18:55
will trump say jesus christ during the white house easter egg roll	3	$64	100	100	+0	open	—	04-03 21:40
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	5	$63	300	300	+0	No	$-57	05-13 04:56
Will Trump say "Daddy" this week?	2	$62	50	50	+0	No	+$7	05-03 16:28
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 20 - 26)	4	$62	45	38	+7	open	—	04-19 17:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 22:37:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	61	2¢	$1	0xdbb788…
05-19 19:24:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	435	2¢	$8	0xf2d8ec…
05-19 17:30:31	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x1a870c…
05-19 14:12:04	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x7cc2c6…
05-19 10:22:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	BUY	496	2¢	$10	0xa8d940…
05-18 21:23:46	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x9185f3…
05-18 19:02:20	Will "Honestly" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb1fe41…
05-18 18:56:04	Will "Honestly" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x670bc3…
05-18 18:53:37	Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1ed5ab…
05-18 18:52:46	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x7b6ff6…
05-18 18:51:24	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9e2513…
05-18 18:51:17	Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x80a679…
05-18 18:51:07	Will "Patreon" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x57e4a1…
05-18 18:49:41	Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	26	83¢	$22	0x3c4a67…
05-18 17:19:16	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x44f6f8…
05-18 17:13:50	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x3f8d29…
05-17 19:21:05	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x01fcb1…
05-14 17:51:26	Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xff9376…
05-13 14:25:54	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x3640ef…
05-13 09:10:14	Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x9d9623…
05-13 08:40:57	Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xce23bf…
05-13 08:37:50	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xf509cb…
05-13 08:35:37	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x1f7d18…
05-13 05:06:41	Will "People" be said 111+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	SELL	59	1¢	$1	0xa9ba28…
05-13 04:56:10	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	112	1¢	$1	0xa2065b…
05-13 04:52:15	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xb5cc1d…
05-13 04:17:45	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0xe149fc…
05-13 04:07:55	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	149	1¢	$2	0xb1192e…
05-13 03:30:16	Will "People" be said 111+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x463e88…
05-13 03:28:34	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	280	20¢	$56	0xa2f27e…
05-13 03:18:22	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc5bec1…
05-13 03:15:01	Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x71cd35…
05-13 03:08:48	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	95	44¢	$42	0xd4cdd3…
05-13 03:05:28	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0xd08e3b…
05-13 03:04:04	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	SELL	76	35¢	$27	0x2bf141…
05-13 03:02:51	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1f9608…
05-13 02:12:18	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0xfc9698…
05-13 00:32:33	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbc73ae…
05-13 00:29:42	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x5c6129…
05-12 21:15:04	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$10	0x4f0d85…
05-12 21:14:38	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	45	71¢	$32	0x5dc94c…
05-12 21:13:26	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x696257…
05-12 19:39:26	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xdce0c8…
05-12 16:41:22	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xaf5a6d…
05-12 16:41:22	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0x83b793…
05-12 16:26:26	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0xcc1530…
05-12 16:26:12	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0xb39326…
05-12 16:22:44	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x460cb3…
05-12 16:07:21	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	21	55¢	$11	0x1b8421…
05-12 15:26:02	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe96b82…
05-12 15:21:15	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x92950e…
05-12 14:46:18	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xe3daa9…
05-12 14:45:50	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	120	70¢	$84	0xe532c8…
05-12 14:19:25	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	358	1¢	$3	0x8af469…
05-12 13:04:25	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x482289…
05-12 13:02:39	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	142	0¢	$1	0xcfbde5…
05-12 12:01:15	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x1c7cda…
05-12 09:47:03	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$4	0x6f9203…
05-12 00:38:47	Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x662ca8…
05-11 23:14:40	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x06e210…
05-11 21:24:53	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	460	2¢	$7	0x17c12b…
05-11 21:22:43	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0x0de9d0…
05-11 21:06:14	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa31645…
05-11 20:41:36	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x743c64…
05-11 20:30:57	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	BUY	83	55¢	$46	0xf71500…
05-11 07:58:41	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xf6c81e…
05-10 18:26:36	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xf5b950…
05-10 08:16:57	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	Yes	SELL	112	0¢	$0	0x5e5521…
05-10 01:52:09	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	183	17¢	$31	0x0ead66…
05-10 00:25:09	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x18dfd6…
05-09 23:26:18	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x23e012…
05-09 22:33:14	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2ea9b7…
05-09 21:40:43	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xb4aa39…
05-09 20:36:33	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	146	17¢	$25	0x590412…
05-09 12:13:25	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Prediction" this week?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x3ccddd…
05-08 23:22:36	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x0de949…
05-08 22:48:46	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	Yes	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0x3d6526…
05-08 18:54:07	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x3f2953…
05-08 14:49:39	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xa039a9…
05-08 12:01:33	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x7def77…
05-08 05:53:45	Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfce08b…
05-08 04:56:02	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x1859db…
05-08 04:55:16	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xe7491d…
05-07 20:45:39	Will "Competent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xbb9e91…
05-07 20:15:14	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0xafc388…
05-07 19:39:35	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x5014ea…
05-07 19:29:33	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	31	13¢	$4	0x288a30…
05-07 19:28:44	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x4560e1…
05-07 19:03:03	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x15de99…
05-07 19:02:43	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x5e98ce…
05-07 15:41:20	Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x43ea5b…
05-07 15:35:03	Will "Mark Zuckerberg" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xa28f05…
05-07 09:23:06	Will Trump say "Ruckus" this week?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0xe967a7…
05-07 01:23:57	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0x6be3f9…
05-06 23:14:18	Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x5b54d3…
05-06 22:51:24	Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x189c35…
05-06 22:27:05	Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x2bbf24…
05-06 20:51:37	Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x32a9a3…
05-06 20:46:04	Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x9ab138…
05-06 17:38:20	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	74¢	$95	0xc07adb…