Bare-Battalion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$318

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

448

Trades

1,327

lifetime

Volume

$8.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$29

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-06 15:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Other

46% 54% -$82

Politics

43% 68% +$328

Tech

7% 50% +$46

Crypto

1% 70% -$4

Sports

1% 62% +$19

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No		+29	$26	92¢	$27	+$1	05-12 15:57
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes		+29	$4	8¢	$2	-$1	05-04 16:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	8	$247	1,265	1,265	+0	No	-$67	05-19 17:40
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	5	$208	300	129	+171	No	-$17	05-18 17:19
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	7	$196	252	252	+0	open	—	04-29 11:44
will anthropic be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 417	4	$160	186	0	+186	Yes	+$26	04-24 18:39
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	4	$142	100	100	+0	Yes	+$12	05-03 14:06
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Powell" this week?	4	$139	220	40	+180	Yes	+$90	04-27 18:34
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	5	$135	222	45	+177	No	-$60	05-06 17:31
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	6	$133	119	61	+58	open	—	05-12 15:57
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	4	$133	100	100	+0	Yes	+$7	05-01 12:49
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	4	$130	100	70	+30	No	+$30	04-28 19:34
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	8	$123	390	390	+0	Yes	+$9	04-27 02:27
Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	3	$111	160	0	+160	Yes	+$49	05-12 21:13
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$109	100	100	+0	No	-$1	05-06 22:48
Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	5	$103	156	0	+156	Yes	-$83	05-12 21:15
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	8	$96	413	413	+0	No	-$65	05-12 09:47
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	4	$94	118	118	+0	No	-$11	05-13 03:05
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?	7	$88	212	212	+0	No	-$52	05-10 08:16
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$86	95	95	+0	No	-$3	05-13 03:08
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	10	$82	368	226	+142	Yes	+$3	04-18 11:50
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?	2	$78	100	0	+100	No	+$22	05-14 16:40
will trump say jesus this week april 19	16	$77	108	70	+38	No	-$22	04-18 19:11
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	4	$77	79	79	+0	Yes	+$62	05-12 17:03
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	3	$74	100	100	+0	open	—	10-06 15:42
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Warsh" this week?	5	$74	260	200	+60	No	+$18	05-02 22:20
will trump say make america great again this week april 19	9	$73	50	40	+9	Yes	+$9	04-13 19:28
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	5	$73	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 19:29
will anthropic be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 828	3	$73	111	0	+111	Yes	+$7	04-15 15:49
will trump say sleepy joe this week april 19	5	$72	50	47	+3	Yes	+$2	04-13 10:40
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	8	$72	49	49	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 09:00
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (April 20 - 26)	8	$71	260	175	+85	No	+$4	04-26 18:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 15:43:20	Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xf34722…
10-06 15:42:39	Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	92	22¢	$20	0x840a9e…
05-20 15:11:12	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0xf70f22…
05-20 09:02:41	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x559d8d…
05-19 22:37:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	61	2¢	$1	0xdbb788…
05-19 19:24:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	435	2¢	$8	0xf2d8ec…
05-19 17:43:56	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xa6cfea…
05-19 17:42:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	2¢	$2	0x373d67…
05-19 17:41:51	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	7¢	$14	0x44a461…
05-19 17:40:29	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	532	6¢	$32	0xd5d517…
05-19 17:40:08	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	7¢	$5	0x4d56a7…
05-19 17:40:03	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	8¢	$4	0xc24021…
05-19 17:39:31	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	622	8¢	$50	0x8080a1…
05-19 17:30:31	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x1a870c…
05-19 14:12:04	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x7cc2c6…
05-19 10:22:24	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	BUY	496	2¢	$10	0xa8d940…
05-19 10:15:40	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0xb8a420…
05-19 10:15:19	Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	237	1¢	$2	0x6be414…
05-18 21:23:46	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x9185f3…
05-18 21:06:53	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x429838…
05-18 21:05:10	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 18?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xc83afd…
05-18 19:02:20	Will "Honestly" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb1fe41…
05-18 18:56:04	Will "Honestly" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x670bc3…
05-18 18:53:37	Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1ed5ab…
05-18 18:52:46	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x7b6ff6…
05-18 18:51:24	Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9e2513…
05-18 18:51:17	Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x80a679…
05-18 18:51:07	Will "Patreon" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x57e4a1…
05-18 18:49:41	Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	26	83¢	$22	0x3c4a67…
05-18 17:19:16	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x44f6f8…
05-18 17:13:50	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x3f8d29…
05-18 15:07:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	4¢	$3	0xb7b379…
05-18 15:07:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x08a72c…
05-18 06:08:14	Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x4713be…
05-17 19:21:05	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x01fcb1…
05-16 19:29:22	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x966efa…
05-16 14:22:59	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	77	20¢	$15	0x81b591…
05-16 13:41:46	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xba239d…
05-14 21:12:37	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xb4145c…
05-14 20:50:31	Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x595c1d…
05-14 20:50:17	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5fed39…
05-14 19:32:49	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0x5ea25a…
05-14 17:51:26	Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xff9376…
05-14 16:40:45	Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xdfb4fa…
05-14 16:23:07	Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?	No	BUY	91	78¢	$71	0x804276…
05-14 15:05:35	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xf31f48…
05-14 14:59:45	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xd75c13…
05-14 14:59:43	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xc2dd5b…
05-14 14:59:43	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x81c70a…
05-14 14:57:36	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xcdae52…
05-14 14:57:13	Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	BUY	14	32¢	$5	0x219a2c…
05-13 14:25:54	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x3640ef…
05-13 12:51:57	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x630cce…
05-13 09:17:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x7b1820…
05-13 09:10:14	Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x9d9623…
05-13 08:40:57	Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xce23bf…
05-13 08:37:50	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xf509cb…
05-13 08:35:37	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x1f7d18…
05-13 07:15:54	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x3081d9…
05-13 05:06:41	Will "People" be said 111+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	SELL	59	1¢	$1	0xa9ba28…
05-13 04:56:10	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	112	1¢	$1	0xa2065b…
05-13 04:52:15	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xb5cc1d…
05-13 04:45:36	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcb9f40…
05-13 04:44:07	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x20a545…
05-13 04:24:10	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x296d8b…
05-13 04:17:45	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0xe149fc…
05-13 04:07:55	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	SELL	149	1¢	$2	0xb1192e…
05-13 03:30:16	Will "People" be said 111+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x463e88…
05-13 03:28:34	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	280	20¢	$56	0xa2f27e…
05-13 03:18:22	Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc5bec1…
05-13 03:15:01	Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x71cd35…
05-13 03:08:48	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	95	44¢	$42	0xd4cdd3…
05-13 03:05:28	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0xd08e3b…
05-13 03:04:04	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	SELL	76	35¢	$27	0x2bf141…
05-13 03:02:51	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1f9608…
05-13 02:12:18	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0xfc9698…
05-13 00:32:33	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbc73ae…
05-13 00:29:42	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x5c6129…
05-12 23:02:52	Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0xf31ffc…
05-12 23:02:52	Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xbd3001…
05-12 21:15:04	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$10	0x4f0d85…
05-12 21:14:38	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	45	71¢	$32	0x5dc94c…
05-12 21:13:26	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x696257…
05-12 19:39:26	Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xdce0c8…
05-12 17:48:39	Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$8	0xdebbd8…
05-12 17:03:44	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	Yes	SELL	27	88¢	$24	0xfd8491…
05-12 16:42:42	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	No	SELL	49	91¢	$45	0xc3042a…
05-12 16:41:22	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xaf5a6d…
05-12 16:41:22	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0x83b793…
05-12 16:26:26	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0xcc1530…
05-12 16:26:12	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0xb39326…
05-12 16:22:44	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x460cb3…
05-12 16:09:48	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	Yes	SELL	52	88¢	$46	0x22bec1…
05-12 16:07:21	Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	21	55¢	$11	0x1b8421…
05-12 15:57:23	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x4d9c9a…
05-12 15:27:57	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x8c9d02…
05-12 15:26:02	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe96b82…
05-12 15:21:15	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x92950e…
05-12 14:46:18	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xe3daa9…
05-12 14:45:50	Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	120	70¢	$84	0xe532c8…