Wary-Notebook — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$11

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

48.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

6 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$78

$78 lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$41

1 position

First seen

2026-05-11

last 05-14 10:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

64% — —

Other

36% 75% $-11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down		+42	$25	99¢	$41	+$16	05-14 10:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	1	$25	56	0	+56	open	—	05-14 06:54
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	1	$15	0	39	-39	Yes	$-25	05-12 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?	1	$8	0	17	-17	No	+$8	05-12 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?	1	$4	0	10	-10	No	+$4	05-13 06:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	1	$2	0	75	-75	No	+$2	05-11 03:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 10:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x1bddc0…
05-14 06:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x443f82…
05-13 06:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xbcc26d…
05-12 03:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	SELL	39	37¢	$15	0x15b55d…
05-12 03:13:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0x9727dc…
05-11 03:23:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$2	0x73f501…