Watery-Monsoon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.10K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

65.3%

Resolved

Trades

484

lifetime

Volume

$79.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

$79

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-25 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Politics

66% 65% +$3,041

Other

33% 39% +$224

Sports

1% 50% -$160

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No		-80	-$76	98¢	$-79	-$3	06-25 11:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	170	$15.9K	57,239	57,239	+0	No	-$1,823	05-13 01:36
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$11.4K	7,411	7,411	+0	Yes	+$488	02-18 22:12
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	10	$9.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$75	02-19 18:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	14	$5.6K	6,200	6,200	+0	No	+$761	04-01 11:14
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	48	$4.0K	19,500	22,500	-3,000	No	-$793	04-14 00:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$3.4K	1,992	1,992	+0	No	+$550	06-02 09:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$3.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	10-16 02:46
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	30	$2.9K	4,900	0	+4,900	Yes	+$1,960	09-12 15:24
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$2.1K	1,149	1,149	+0	No	+$132	03-06 16:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$2.1K	3,240	0	+3,240	No	+$1,140	03-24 01:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.0K	1,045	1,045	+0	Yes	+$43	03-01 13:19
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	17	$2.0K	14,452	14,452	+0	No	-$95	04-18 04:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	6	$1.9K	1,326	1,326	-0	No	+$178	03-01 20:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.7K	1,029	1,029	+0	No	+$328	07-06 23:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	11	$1.2K	2,250	0	+2,250	No	+$1,045	03-10 10:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$932	800	800	+0	No	+$212	05-24 21:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	2	$871	4,510	4,510	+0	No	-$329	05-26 21:00
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	32	$717	640	640	+0	Yes	-$59	03-06 17:01
will france strike iran by march 31	16	$715	400	400	+0	No	+$75	03-24 01:56
iran strike on us military by february 28	2	$596	10,036	2,509	+7,527	Yes	-$124	03-01 02:08
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	18	$596	430	430	+0	No	+$230	03-06 20:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$580	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	10-25 21:50
us evacuates baghdad embassy by march 31	5	$539	300	300	+0	No	+$59	04-01 03:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	3	$504	2,800	0	+2,800	Yes	-$504	10-02 13:24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	1	$500	1,016	0	+1,016	Yes	-$500	05-13 01:44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$450	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$550	03-18 15:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$390	500	0	+500	No	+$110	04-24 19:54
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$370	500	0	+500	No	+$130	03-05 11:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$311	200	200	+0	No	+$83	03-29 03:26
us evacuates beirut embassy by march 31	4	$264	150	150	+0	No	+$33	03-26 12:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 21:51:21	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xaae6b8…
10-25 21:51:14	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	588	0¢	$1	0xeecbe8…
10-25 21:50:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	2,000	14¢	$280	0xa1b6a3…
10-16 02:46:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5,000	21¢	$1,050	0x4a3d55…
10-05 09:49:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2,000	15¢	$300	0x2c791a…
10-02 13:24:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	2,138	18¢	$385	0x778847…
10-02 13:23:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	84	18¢	$15	0x38d2b7…
10-02 09:15:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	577	18¢	$104	0xfecd22…
10-02 00:46:47	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	5,000	41¢	$2,050	0xcd5382…
09-12 15:24:42	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	134	60¢	$80	0x04ef2b…
09-12 09:52:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	750	60¢	$450	0x3c0ef0…
09-12 09:52:12	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	750	60¢	$450	0x76fc4f…
09-12 09:08:18	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x6994c6…
09-12 08:05:55	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xf9d581…
09-11 21:37:16	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xcd7c81…
09-11 19:15:52	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xadb011…
09-11 19:15:51	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0x456e0a…
09-10 13:19:34	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xf258ba…
09-10 11:31:21	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x5cd1d2…
09-10 11:10:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0xc520d8…
09-10 11:10:49	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x5f01d1…
09-10 02:03:27	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	158	60¢	$95	0xc06a46…
09-10 00:29:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0xc576be…
09-09 13:39:51	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x03a0d2…
09-09 09:44:07	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0xdf8450…
09-09 09:41:21	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x158848…
09-09 09:37:18	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xba56f1…
09-08 19:46:28	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xc35c9a…
09-06 14:27:33	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0xe96302…
09-06 14:27:30	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x42112b…
09-06 14:27:30	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x0c0db9…
09-06 14:27:28	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0x18913a…
09-06 14:27:27	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x208003…
09-06 14:27:27	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x2044ca…
09-06 14:27:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	16	60¢	$9	0xb84dd3…
09-06 14:27:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0xb5da3a…
09-06 03:48:52	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x815011…
09-05 21:57:04	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	60¢	$600	0xd38f2b…
09-05 19:02:57	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	60¢	$240	0xa666a1…
07-06 23:17:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,029	100¢	$1,028	0x75d316…
06-25 11:08:14	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x1e8f5b…
06-02 09:53:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xcf7bfd…
06-02 09:52:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x0db9db…
06-02 09:44:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,992	100¢	$1,988	0x1d51d9…
05-26 21:00:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4,510	6¢	$271	0xd1d61f…
05-24 21:56:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	800	72¢	$572	0x4aeabd…
05-24 00:09:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	592	84¢	$500	0xbc30e6…
05-18 23:29:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,029	68¢	$700	0x31db8f…
05-13 01:44:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,016	49¢	$500	0x537b10…
05-13 01:37:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,510	13¢	$600	0xab9ccb…
05-13 01:36:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10,000	6¢	$600	0x177170…
05-12 10:38:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xa9da99…
05-02 20:40:32	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	250	69¢	$173	0xc47513…
04-30 20:47:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20,000	9¢	$1,800	0xb22ba0…
04-26 19:45:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	800	45¢	$360	0x20fe3e…
04-26 19:45:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,400	67¢	$938	0x82c7f2…
04-26 03:49:14	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	16¢	$27	0x0c90ed…
04-24 19:54:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	97	78¢	$75	0xd0fbd4…
04-24 19:51:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	403	78¢	$315	0x2b333f…
04-21 19:48:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	553	17¢	$94	0x1cfec8…
04-21 19:47:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xec5653…
04-21 19:47:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x2f606b…
04-21 19:47:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x3a46f6…
04-21 19:46:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xa5693b…
04-21 19:44:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0x6c7672…
04-21 19:43:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xc3ab73…
04-21 19:36:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x214724…
04-21 18:39:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	202	17¢	$34	0x139665…
04-21 18:38:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x0086fc…
04-21 18:38:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x96e035…
04-18 06:02:20	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xf9b5c9…
04-18 04:06:52	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	94	7¢	$6	0xd98b6c…
04-18 03:27:04	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	215	7¢	$15	0x5562cf…
04-18 01:08:28	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,357	7¢	$92	0x0ffaef…
04-18 01:00:18	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,272	7¢	$87	0x892f1e…
04-17 22:46:58	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,471	7¢	$100	0x1c1bb7…
04-17 22:46:34	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,471	7¢	$100	0x419560…
04-17 22:38:26	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,002	7¢	$68	0x2b9844…
04-17 22:32:36	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	292	7¢	$20	0x561487…
04-17 00:17:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xa1abc6…
04-17 00:17:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x6e9492…
04-17 00:10:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	17¢	$9	0xb366b5…
04-17 00:04:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	203	17¢	$35	0x85909e…
04-16 23:59:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	203	17¢	$35	0xf99874…
04-16 23:58:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x90c4c7…
04-16 23:57:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	17¢	$8	0x519c6f…
04-16 23:55:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	17¢	$9	0xd57ddc…
04-16 23:46:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xe4ded9…
04-16 23:19:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0xf9fdec…
04-16 23:09:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	151	17¢	$26	0xa74dac…
04-16 23:08:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0xea67ab…
04-16 23:07:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	800	17¢	$136	0x3c06b9…
04-16 23:07:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x29cf98…
04-16 23:01:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x563cde…
04-16 22:55:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x5902bf…
04-16 22:47:52	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x536328…
04-16 22:47:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe2ded0…
04-16 22:43:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xeb1066…
04-16 22:43:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x3711ab…
04-16 22:43:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x595f54…