Pale-Birdwatcher 0x84d7b7…26298f
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.25K
Unrealized P&L
+$10
Hit rate
53.0%
Resolved
135
Trades
74,254
lifetime
Volume
$1.87M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$922
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 00:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
63% 42% +$1,255
Sports
15% 37% $-16
Politics
13% 100% +$9
Crypto
9% — —
Tech
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 890 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +1,145 $464 46¢ $521 +$57 06-27 15:50
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No -157 $-168 100¢ $-157 +$11 06-17 18:15
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes -152 $-64 55¢ $-83 $-19 06-19 07:04
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes -149 $-76 44¢ $-65 +$11 06-16 12:14
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes -298 $-86 16¢ $-49 +$37 06-15 05:31
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No +42 $26 94¢ $39 +$13 05-31 22:17
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No +2 $-23 99¢ $2 +$25 06-13 23:42
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No +2 $1 99¢ $2 +$0 06-01 04:39
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +363 $37 0¢ $1 $-36 06-10 16:10
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes -24 $-2 4¢ $-1 +$1 06-08 22:47
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Yes +70 $10 1¢ $1 $-9 06-20 15:23
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes -53 $10 1¢ $-1 $-10 06-24 06:40
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes -162 $-42 0¢ $-0 +$42 06-16 15:50
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +0 $12 100¢ $0 $-12 06-09 23:55
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 05-30 04:03
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No +0 $-20 56¢ $0 +$20 06-11 16:54
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes -32 $-1 0¢ $-0 +$1 06-05 21:37
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes -38 $-1 0¢ $-0 +$1 06-10 17:35
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +0 $123 0¢ $0 $-123 06-26 00:51