Sore-Ladle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$155

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved (90d)

188

Trades (90d)

510

10,315 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.93K

$869.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$70

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-25 10:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 175 days

Categories

Other

100% 79% -$1,953

Tech

0% 63% +$2

Politics

0% 54% -$13

Crypto

0% 60% -$9

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$15	94¢	$19	+$4	09-30 12:56
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+15	$14	96¢	$14	+$0	09-15 14:46
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$9	93¢	$9	+$0	09-30 12:31
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	+10	$8	93¢	$9	+$2	09-30 08:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+10	$9	82¢	$8	-$1	09-30 12:33
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	100¢	$5	+$1	10-06 18:45
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	09-15 15:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?	2	$11.6K	11,666	+11,666	No	+$54	04-30 16:40
highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 17c	2	$9.0K	9,045	+9,045	No	+$50	04-23 14:26
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 3?	18	$8.0K	8,000	+8,000	No	+$8	05-03 22:00
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?	3	$8.0K	8,000	+8,000	No	+$8	05-04 18:11
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3?	9	$8.0K	8,000	+8,000	No	+$8	05-04 00:10
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 4?	25	$7.9K	7,944	+7,944	No	+$8	05-04 14:42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 4?	12	$7.2K	7,234	+7,234	No	+$7	05-04 05:07
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30?	2	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	04-30 15:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?	10	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	05-01 07:12
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1?	5	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	05-01 14:14
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 30?	1	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	04-30 07:27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1?	6	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	05-01 14:54
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1?	2	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	Yes	+$7	05-01 18:14
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 30?	4	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	04-30 13:40
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 2?	8	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	05-03 00:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3?	19	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	No	+$7	05-03 15:46
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?	19	$7.0K	7,000	+7,000	Yes	+$7	05-01 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4?	1	$6.7K	6,710	+6,710	No	+$7	05-04 14:56
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 2?	20	$6.0K	6,050	+6,050	No	+$6	05-02 05:40
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26?	1	$6.0K	6,000	+6,000	No	+$6	04-26 18:59
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 26?	1	$6.0K	6,000	+6,000	No	+$6	04-26 21:00
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 26?	1	$6.0K	6,000	+6,000	No	+$6	04-26 14:58
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 27?	1	$6.0K	6,000	+6,000	No	+$6	04-27 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	1	$6.0K	6,000	+6,000	Yes	+$6	04-26 18:02
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2?	22	$5.1K	5,096	+5,096	No	+$5	05-02 20:58
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 3?	3	$5.0K	5,010	+5,010	No	+$5	05-03 07:43
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 25?	7	$5.0K	5,000	+5,000	No	+$5	04-25 23:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on April 29?	1	$5.0K	5,000	+5,000	No	+$5	04-28 17:54
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29?	18	$5.0K	5,000	+5,000	No	+$5	04-29 15:07
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?	9	$5.0K	5,000	+5,000	No	+$5	04-25 17:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 10:14:51	GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xdbdd7e…
10-22 11:56:27	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x9781a0…
10-22 10:44:38	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x88a97e…
10-21 21:03:09	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x938781…
10-19 08:20:30	Will Waymo launch in London, UK by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x8da542…
10-18 11:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x737b8b…
10-18 11:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf59b76…
10-18 11:25:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x644b05…
10-18 11:17:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0xa7b559…
10-18 11:13:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x3ac890…
10-18 10:54:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	93	91¢	$84	0x58d32c…
10-17 22:04:21	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xb2ab39…
10-17 16:48:44	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0x0e8e74…
10-17 15:21:45	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xcf7c90…
10-17 08:42:02	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x43e3bd…
10-17 03:34:36	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xe42a82…
10-17 00:13:24	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x603f37…
10-12 20:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 12?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x85d7fe…
10-11 16:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x1fc4a6…
10-11 15:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 11?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xf69745…
10-11 15:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x843c95…
10-11 15:03:49	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 11?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xdd8916…
10-11 14:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd2fae8…
10-11 14:51:43	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on October 11?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x966653…
10-11 14:50:16	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on October 11?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2e8b71…
10-09 20:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xfd7b2c…
10-09 20:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x96e75c…
10-09 20:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x56304d…
10-09 20:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xc647e4…
10-09 20:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x1db7ba…
10-09 18:46:05	Will Control Resonant win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xb91be5…
10-09 15:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc755c0…
10-09 15:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x952225…
10-09 15:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xbf63b6…
10-09 15:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x6501fd…
10-09 14:53:37	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x67385a…
10-09 14:42:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x6d252c…
10-09 14:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0x76e537…
10-09 14:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x1703a3…
10-09 13:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x3b7a0a…
10-09 13:37:15	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xed04e5…
10-09 13:19:27	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x0c094b…
10-09 13:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb9c293…
10-09 13:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x86501b…
10-09 13:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x23d4fc…
10-09 13:05:09	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x4ebf64…
10-09 12:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x1f6844…
10-09 12:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x7beeff…
10-09 12:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x855c3b…
10-09 12:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xf82496…
10-09 12:22:00	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x026dae…
10-09 12:16:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x70db47…
10-09 12:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x281626…
10-09 12:02:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x4ec353…
10-09 11:44:36	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf7dc4b…
10-09 11:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xccade3…
10-09 11:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x382ca4…
10-09 10:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xff500f…
10-09 09:51:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xfe5d4e…
10-09 09:51:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on October 9?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x268ed1…
10-09 09:49:37	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbff913…
10-09 09:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x4966e2…
10-09 09:23:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xd726e6…
10-09 09:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5a4704…
10-09 08:51:31	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x26c2d1…
10-09 08:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x130066…
10-09 08:42:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xe732f0…
10-09 08:28:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x024934…
10-09 08:20:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x811e6a…
10-09 08:17:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xa6f1d7…
10-09 08:16:36	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xbce3a6…
10-09 08:11:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xaed309…
10-09 08:06:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x1a0275…
10-09 07:36:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x6b0073…
10-09 07:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x63907d…
10-09 07:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x187f85…
10-09 07:08:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7bd740…
10-08 17:58:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5641c1…
10-08 17:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x149f69…
10-08 14:42:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x128405…
10-08 14:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x21098a…
10-08 14:16:53	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xc2f1b4…
10-08 13:48:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x589782…
10-08 13:48:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x3342eb…
10-08 13:08:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xd20797…
10-08 12:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xa2a847…
10-08 12:08:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x5ad81c…
10-08 12:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8c9880…
10-08 10:43:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 8?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x8a3736…
10-08 10:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 8?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2bd654…
10-08 10:25:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x3b47f9…
10-08 10:21:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x770be7…
10-08 10:20:17	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 8?	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x54a8ff…
10-08 10:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x49ba6a…
10-08 10:03:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x00b898…
10-08 09:54:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x5f5aca…
10-08 08:11:05	Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x38b6f8…
10-08 08:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc3cc55…
10-08 05:08:26	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x71e1cc…
10-08 04:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xf3e9ce…