Twin-Cholesterol — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

Trades

460

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 07-24 17:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$42

Crypto

23% 42% $-111

Other

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$5.1K	2,874	2,874	+0	open	—	05-26 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$2.0K	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	05-23 18:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	9	$1.1K	1,077	1,077	+0	open	—	05-22 22:15
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	10	$726	1,529	9,929	-8,400	open	—	07-16 13:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	9	$657	9,413	600	+8,812	open	—	05-26 18:59
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	6	$620	1,458	3,036	-1,577	open	—	07-14 13:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$445	244,255	0	+244,255	open	—	06-17 21:10
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$442	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$42	05-10 15:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$390	246	246	+0	open	—	05-17 11:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$386	268	268	+0	open	—	06-20 11:33
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	2	$350	312	312	+0	open	—	05-25 23:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$343	808	808	+0	open	—	07-16 13:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	4	$339	310	310	+0	open	—	06-20 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	3	$312	269	145	+124	open	—	05-25 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	6	$309	198	198	+0	Down	+$9	05-11 05:08
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	3	$296	712	712	+0	open	—	05-31 17:22
iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	3	$293	812	812	+0	open	—	07-14 09:30
iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	4	$271	998	998	+0	open	—	07-13 18:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	3	$247	1,075	100	+975	open	—	07-24 17:31
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	2	$238	426	0	+426	open	—	06-14 21:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	8	$216	902	649	+254	open	—	05-20 09:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$204	108	108	+0	Up	+$4	05-11 05:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$191	189	189	+0	open	—	05-25 19:22
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	2	$188	242	242	+0	open	—	06-16 21:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	5	$182	228	228	+0	Up	$-68	05-11 06:04
israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	1	$180	227	0	+227	open	—	07-16 19:27
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$163	135	135	+0	open	—	05-11 05:31
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	8	$118	117	117	+0	open	—	06-20 18:26
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	4	$90	1,977	1,977	+0	open	—	05-25 23:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	4	$90	97	97	+0	Down	$-10	05-11 06:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 17:31:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	975	20¢	$193	0x9b2417…
07-20 13:32:16	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	156	10¢	$16	0xea3f84…
07-20 13:31:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	250	6¢	$16	0x3d5051…
07-18 22:42:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	250	26¢	$65	0x1db7ed…
07-18 22:41:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	715	4¢	$29	0x785c91…
07-18 22:40:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	362	10¢	$37	0x960292…
07-18 18:27:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	112	26¢	$29	0xd7bdab…
07-18 13:45:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x3da8d3…
07-17 17:57:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x3c56e9…
07-17 17:57:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xd5d5bb…
07-17 17:55:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	9¢	$6	0xaaabbe…
07-17 17:55:37	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0xfc62a1…
07-17 17:52:09	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	173	0¢	$1	0x0102d3…
07-17 09:30:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x614f2d…
07-16 19:27:11	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	BUY	227	79¢	$180	0xb69689…
07-16 13:34:08	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	333	7¢	$25	0xfe29c5…
07-16 13:32:22	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,501	5¢	$71	0x68d4e5…
07-16 13:31:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	600	23¢	$138	0x4b535e…
07-14 20:45:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	20¢	$120	0xddb43b…
07-14 20:35:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	181	25¢	$45	0xe061b5…
07-14 15:58:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	715	3¢	$25	0x8dab10…
07-14 13:53:40	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xcb486b…
07-14 13:52:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0x733aff…
07-14 13:47:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	181	14¢	$25	0x1328ca…
07-14 09:30:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	812	18¢	$150	0x983b1b…
07-13 21:00:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	173	20¢	$34	0xa215d7…
07-13 18:51:43	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,501	7¢	$101	0x87d02d…
07-13 18:50:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	SELL	907	18¢	$159	0x778026…
07-12 05:00:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	377	25¢	$93	0xb356bf…
07-11 23:24:59	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x965819…
07-11 22:52:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	SELL	41	12¢	$5	0x7b79ab…
07-11 22:49:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	998	10¢	$100	0x90c6c4…
07-11 22:45:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	435	12¢	$50	0x2e4826…
07-10 18:21:53	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,249	4¢	$130	0x260d13…
07-10 18:18:41	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,827	6¢	$101	0x0dd98c…
07-01 16:18:20	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	14¢	$9	0x1ac61f…
06-26 17:31:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,400	0¢	$19	0x9153e1…
06-26 17:31:19	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x8e3a10…
06-26 17:28:58	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,400	0¢	$30	0x56fa16…
06-20 18:26:43	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	13¢	$6	0xadef1d…
06-20 14:19:07	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0xd4cd45…
06-20 14:16:59	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x4ddab4…
06-20 14:16:19	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x878de1…
06-20 14:14:31	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x616bcb…
06-20 14:14:22	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x593ccd…
06-20 14:14:16	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0x4e8cf3…
06-20 14:13:10	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	68¢	$49	0xefe5b9…
06-20 14:12:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	57	85¢	$49	0x543d29…
06-20 14:08:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	57	82¢	$47	0x9b9aaa…
06-20 14:08:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x89b04d…
06-20 14:08:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	253	17¢	$43	0x987ced…
06-20 11:40:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x965d5a…
06-20 11:36:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xe79d82…
06-20 11:33:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	199	94¢	$187	0xbf63c2…
06-19 07:49:29	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	120	12¢	$15	0x819c41…
06-19 06:52:40	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x822b54…
06-18 23:04:38	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x428e94…
06-18 23:00:40	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x7108b1…
06-18 20:31:58	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Up	SELL	10	56¢	$5	0x28f40e…
06-18 20:31:37	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x416c58…
06-18 20:31:11	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$6	0xb74630…
06-18 20:30:41	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xac97e7…
06-18 20:25:14	btc updown 5m 1781814300	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x7062bd…
06-18 20:23:41	btc updown 5m 1781814000	Up	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0x1b693b…
06-18 20:22:56	btc updown 5m 1781814000	Up	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0x4be1a3…
06-18 20:21:35	btc updown 5m 1781814300	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6e1651…
06-18 20:21:34	btc updown 5m 1781814300	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc273fa…
06-18 13:26:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0x2ad530…
06-18 13:11:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	38	16¢	$6	0xb08450…
06-18 13:11:40	will vance shake hands with an iranian official by june 20 20260615195642306	No	SELL	30	61¢	$18	0x15214b…
06-18 10:01:25	will vance shake hands with an iranian official by june 20 20260615195642306	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xc11781…
06-18 09:55:23	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x39bb27…
06-17 21:10:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	43,755	0¢	$44	0x98a93b…
06-17 18:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100,000	0¢	$200	0x8eb2a2…
06-17 17:49:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x05de87…
06-17 17:37:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,890	13¢	$246	0x3495da…
06-17 14:01:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	75,000	0¢	$150	0x24d3e9…
06-17 14:01:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	387	13¢	$50	0x552df3…
06-17 14:01:07	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	759	13¢	$99	0x94177c…
06-17 13:40:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	15,000	0¢	$30	0x559754…
06-17 13:39:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	70	44¢	$31	0x32b3cb…
06-17 13:39:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	4,500	0¢	$9	0xac8fea…
06-17 13:38:52	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x39cf49…
06-17 13:35:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xe5cda5…
06-17 13:34:37	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	106	10¢	$11	0xf8bffa…
06-17 13:31:22	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	4,000	0¢	$8	0xaa8316…
06-17 13:30:49	Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0x338f6a…
06-16 21:29:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	268	63¢	$169	0x828615…
06-16 21:28:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	242	37¢	$88	0xd91dce…
06-16 21:25:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	242	41¢	$100	0x629786…
06-16 21:16:59	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$6	0x5c14a7…
06-16 16:35:59	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xadc4ab…
06-16 10:40:18	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	106	15¢	$16	0x516e61…
06-16 00:42:34	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x9d7436…
06-15 15:23:10	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xe9d326…
06-14 23:16:22	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x014222…
06-14 23:12:52	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	299	16¢	$48	0xbcaed9…
06-14 23:11:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	951	16¢	$152	0x10714b…
06-14 21:03:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	294	64¢	$188	0x637e63…
06-14 21:01:34	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,793	11¢	$189	0xfb2a71…