Reliable-Nightlight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$622

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$21.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$163

Open exposure

$68

1 position

First seen

2026-03-06

last 10-24 00:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

52% 100% +$80

Crypto

30% 100% +$22

Politics

17% 75% -$736

Tech

2% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+71	$68	96¢	$68	$0	10-07 13:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$1.6K	818	818	+0	No	-$5	05-03 13:46
Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31?	3	$1.4K	713	713	-0	Yes	+$12	05-19 10:07
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	1	$818	820	0	+820	No	+$2	05-01 08:54
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	4	$818	820	0	+820	No	+$2	05-16 10:59
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $8.00?	1	$815	816	0	+816	No	+$1	05-06 05:11
will xrp reach 1pt65 on april 20	1	$803	804	0	+804	No	+$1	04-20 09:32
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 140 159	1	$802	803	0	+803	No	+$1	04-18 01:52
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	5	$751	834	0	+834	Yes	-$751	05-21 12:27
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$708	720	0	+720	No	+$12	05-19 13:13
will xrp dip to 1 april 6 12	1	$639	641	0	+641	No	+$2	04-10 05:37
will the price of xrp be greater than 1pt70 on april 9	3	$638	639	0	+639	No	+$1	04-07 05:55
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in April?	1	$576	582	0	+582	No	+$6	04-25 12:00
will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	3	$527	267	267	+0	No	+$2	03-12 02:24
trump out as president by march 31	8	$493	501	0	+501	No	+$8	03-09 11:37
will nvda close below 160 week april 17 2026	2	$492	497	0	+497	No	+$6	04-13 08:13
will xrp reach 1pt8 april 13 19	1	$475	475	0	+475	No	+$0	04-19 12:21
will ethereum reach 2700 march 2 8	1	$396	397	0	+397	No	+$1	03-06 07:50
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	2	$324	325	0	+325	No	+$1	05-09 17:30
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $140?	1	$295	295	0	+295	No	+$0	05-09 17:33
Will CZ post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$281	281	0	+281	No	+$0	08-05 08:41
will anthropic have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$275	286	0	+286	No	+$11	03-12 06:20
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	2	$274	143	143	+0	No	+$12	06-03 14:16
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	1	$268	270	0	+270	No	+$2	09-03 09:57
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?	2	$251	253	0	+253	No	+$2	05-23 12:41
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?	2	$248	254	0	+254	No	+$6	06-13 06:48
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?	1	$235	238	0	+238	No	+$3	04-21 11:17
will xrp reach 1pt7 april 13 19	1	$234	234	0	+234	No	+$0	04-19 12:21
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$232	232	0	+232	No	+$0	08-01 16:06
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?	1	$211	214	0	+214	No	+$2	04-22 07:38
nvda above 160 on june 30 2026	1	$208	210	0	+210	Yes	+$2	06-20 09:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 00:10:50	will open close between 4 and 5 week october 30 2026	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xc3491b…
10-23 22:36:23	will ng reach 3 70 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xcdf7da…
10-23 22:36:03	will ng reach 3 60 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0xf8b804…
10-23 22:35:45	will ng reach 3 60 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1c0a06…
10-23 22:35:32	will ng reach 3 60 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xadb7d4…
10-23 22:35:17	will ng reach 3 60 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdd9025…
10-23 22:35:03	will ng reach 3 60 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x782de1…
10-23 22:23:53	will open close between 5 and 6 week october 30 2026	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x84346b…
10-23 22:23:39	will open close between 6 and 7 week october 30 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xced918…
10-19 08:17:09	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 19 above $30?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x25155e…
10-19 08:12:24	Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 19 above $4.50?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf3046e…
10-19 08:12:14	Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 19 above $5.00?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x43e79e…
10-19 08:11:56	Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 19 above $0.50?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5f2935…
10-12 10:33:15	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $30?	Yes	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0x228926…
10-12 10:31:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x356a75…
10-12 10:31:30	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf66457…
10-08 04:23:05	Will XRP dip to $0.80 October 5-11?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x23d862…
10-08 04:22:41	Will XRP reach $2.20 October 5-11?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x831dd9…
10-08 04:22:07	Will Solana dip to $50 October 5-11?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xced349…
10-08 04:21:40	Will Solana reach $190 October 5-11?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xeea04c…
10-07 13:14:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	71	96¢	$68	0x139e1e…
09-03 09:57:40	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	270	99¢	$268	0xc28c33…
09-03 09:22:33	dtrump out as president by september 30	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x1246b7…
08-21 07:23:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x785232…
08-21 07:22:48	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	183	100¢	$182	0x7346b3…
08-18 06:36:12	Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on August 20?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x1a835b…
08-18 06:35:01	xrp above 1pt5 on august 20 2026	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x021034…
08-12 06:29:42	will open dip to 2 00 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0x993059…
08-12 06:28:49	will ng dip to 2 00 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdce93a…
08-05 08:41:02	Will CZ post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	281	100¢	$281	0x5cc8d0…
08-01 16:06:30	Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	232	100¢	$232	0x363a65…
07-25 00:40:39	will ethena reach 0pt28 in july	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x85fac8…
07-25 00:39:49	will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x9f09a9…
07-18 09:51:13	Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $20-$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x61c4db…
07-18 09:50:39	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x248c1f…
07-18 09:50:21	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb43965…
07-16 06:41:19	nvda above 185 on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x5e110f…
07-16 06:40:56	open above 7pt5 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbd7a0d…
07-16 06:40:25	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at >$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x21b8bb…
07-16 06:39:17	spcx above 175 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xcf7f61…
07-13 07:13:05	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa38ec6…
07-13 07:12:47	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x7b1052…
07-13 07:11:20	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa68f8e…
07-13 07:09:23	Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xe95279…
07-06 07:47:04	Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xfebee1…
07-06 07:45:43	will xrp reach 1pt7 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x853fd8…
06-26 22:11:25	amzn above 280 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x36e7ec…
06-26 22:09:37	open above 2 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b3b44…
06-26 22:08:50	open above 1 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0e0aa8…
06-26 22:08:32	open above 8 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcf40d9…
06-26 22:08:14	open above 9 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xccb7e7…
06-26 22:07:58	open above 10 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x64e5de…
06-24 01:53:37	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	62	90¢	$56	0xb69a03…
06-23 05:51:55	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x5f6307…
06-23 05:51:32	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$41	0xbb13be…
06-20 09:18:35	xrp above 1pt6 on june 21 2026	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x2dd690…
06-20 09:17:28	nvda above 160 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0x376535…
06-13 06:48:43	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?	No	BUY	170	98¢	$167	0x313324…
06-13 06:48:15	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?	No	BUY	84	97¢	$81	0xad65e2…
06-07 05:40:43	nflx above 20 on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x25c078…
06-07 05:40:03	nvda above 245 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6375b3…
06-07 05:39:46	nvda above 250 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7a30cc…
06-04 12:03:51	Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 6?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xe9f138…
06-03 14:22:49	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	126	95¢	$119	0x5ea3c9…
06-03 14:16:49	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	143	100¢	$143	0xce2cd4…
06-02 10:06:19	Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on June 5?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xc8f15e…
06-02 10:04:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	143	91¢	$131	0x2d1eaf…
05-23 12:41:58	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xe551b7…
05-23 10:46:25	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x083b5a…
05-21 12:27:28	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xfe0de4…
05-21 11:42:54	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x241197…
05-21 10:40:57	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$25	0x17b47f…
05-21 10:40:03	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	157	90¢	$141	0x3acc42…
05-21 10:20:38	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x839dd3…
05-20 08:38:53	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x333b34…
05-19 13:13:10	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	658	98¢	$647	0xffdec3…
05-19 13:00:22	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$62	0xfef42e…
05-19 10:07:07	Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31?	Yes	SELL	713	100¢	$711	0xdb5004…
05-18 07:58:51	Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x3ce7da…
05-17 14:36:28	Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31?	Yes	BUY	620	98¢	$607	0x8f15bc…
05-17 14:35:41	Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31?	Yes	BUY	93	98¢	$91	0x1860a2…
05-16 10:59:52	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	182	100¢	$181	0x67427b…
05-16 10:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xea01f2…
05-16 10:15:51	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x9df63d…
05-16 10:13:10	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xa8d795…
05-09 17:33:30	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $140?	No	BUY	295	100¢	$295	0xdeee30…
05-09 17:32:27	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xab2a9b…
05-09 17:32:00	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf51fc1…
05-09 17:31:22	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x39febd…
05-09 17:30:59	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0xa1b564…
05-09 17:30:40	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x2016a5…
05-09 17:29:49	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x2e44a6…
05-06 05:11:26	Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $8.00?	No	BUY	816	100¢	$815	0x082399…
05-03 13:46:24	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	818	99¢	$812	0xe85357…
05-03 00:35:32	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	818	100¢	$817	0x7efa35…
05-01 08:54:46	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	820	100¢	$818	0xf01433…
04-25 12:00:52	Will Chainlink dip to $6 in April?	No	BUY	582	99¢	$576	0x71d827…
04-22 07:38:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?	No	BUY	214	99¢	$211	0x5fc150…
04-22 07:37:34	Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?	No	BUY	190	99¢	$188	0x6b152f…
04-22 07:35:36	Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 20 above $275?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x6acf3b…