Realized P&L
+$78.9K
Unrealized P&L
-$5.94K
Hit rate
72.4%
Resolved
487
Trades
6,724
lifetime
Volume
$1.41M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$210
Open exposure
$11.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-25
last 11-11 02:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 102 days
Categories
Other
51% 54% +$66,717
Tech
28% 52% +$12,748
Politics
18% 32% -$3,704
Crypto
2% 52% +$490
Sports
1% 50% +$2,628
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +10,074 $1,959 14¢ $1.4K -$599 11-10 12:40
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,932 $1,196 16¢ $1.2K +$34 11-10 20:05
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,636 $911 38¢ $992 +$81 11-09 20:14
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,567 $939 12¢ $946 +$7 11-10 12:40
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Yes +20,000 $925 4¢ $780 -$145 11-09 19:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +5,424 $1,233 14¢ $732 -$501 11-10 12:39
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +1,160 $478 50¢ $586 +$108 11-11 02:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +17,665 $2,664 3¢ $574 -$2,090 11-09 20:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +499 $148 88¢ $441 +$293 10-01 01:56
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +2,197 $453 20¢ $434 -$19 11-10 11:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +5,000 $351 8¢ $425 +$74 11-09 18:02
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +2,031 $357 19¢ $386 +$29 11-09 18:00
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? No +298 $170 98¢ $293 +$122 08-31 20:06
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,796 $1,239 4¢ $292 -$947 10-16 18:05
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,340 $1,337 9¢ $287 -$1,049 11-04 16:36
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +1,590 -$187 17¢ $270 +$458 11-04 16:08
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? Yes +927 $305 29¢ $270 -$35 11-10 02:15
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +705 $173 29¢ $204 +$32 10-24 03:07
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +3,500 $300 5¢ $168 -$132 11-09 18:03
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,271 $193 12¢ $153 -$40 11-04 16:11
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? No +450 $213 26¢ $117 -$96 10-28 22:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +5,000 $250 2¢ $110 -$140 11-04 17:01
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,250 $578 1¢ $105 -$473 09-20 18:11
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +6,012 $495 2¢ $90 -$405 11-05 23:38
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +124 $42 62¢ $77 +$35 10-24 02:53
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes +584 $184 12¢ $68 -$115 10-05 08:14
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? No +694 $155 9¢ $62 -$93 10-28 22:49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +337 $198 15¢ $51 -$147 11-09 19:09
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +976 $158 4¢ $40 -$118 09-02 17:30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,559 $104 1¢ $32 -$72 11-09 19:13