Realized P&L
+$78.9K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.97K
Hit rate
72.4%
Resolved
487
Trades
6,759
lifetime
Volume
$1.42M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$211
Open exposure
$15.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-25
last 11-12 00:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 102 days
Categories
Other
52% 54% +$66,717
Tech
28% 52% +$12,748
Politics
18% 32% -$3,704
Crypto
2% 52% +$490
Sports
1% 50% +$2,628
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,124 -$27 80¢ $1.7K +$1,716 11-11 19:24
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? Yes +1,945 $746 66¢ $1.3K +$548 11-11 13:37
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,636 $911 49¢ $1.3K +$376 11-09 20:14
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +10,074 $1,959 11¢ $1.1K -$851 11-10 12:40
jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026 Yes +1,499 $586 68¢ $1.0K +$441 11-11 22:56
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,567 $939 12¢ $870 -$68 11-10 12:40
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? Yes +2,003 $703 40¢ $791 +$88 11-12 00:16
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? Yes +1,200 $420 66¢ $786 +$366 11-11 23:11
Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day? Yes +729 $610 88¢ $638 +$28 11-11 13:39
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? No +3,783 $678 16¢ $605 -$73 11-12 01:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +5,424 $1,233 11¢ $570 -$664 11-10 12:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +17,665 $2,664 3¢ $503 -$2,160 11-09 20:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +499 $148 88¢ $438 +$290 10-01 01:56
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +1,160 $478 38¢ $435 -$43 11-11 02:02
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Yes +20,000 $925 2¢ $420 -$505 11-09 19:40
will the openai spy be accused of working for saudi arabia by december 31 20261014120000000 Yes +1,590 -$187 21¢ $334 +$521 11-04 16:08
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? No +298 $170 98¢ $292 +$122 08-31 20:06
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,340 $1,337 8¢ $281 -$1,056 11-04 16:36
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes +711 $113 38¢ $267 +$154 10-14 01:17
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +2,031 $357 12¢ $254 -$103 11-09 18:00
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,796 $1,239 3¢ $253 -$986 10-16 18:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +5,000 $351 5¢ $240 -$111 11-09 18:02
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +3,500 $300 7¢ $234 -$66 11-09 18:03
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +705 $173 29¢ $204 +$32 10-24 03:07
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +2,197 $453 8¢ $176 -$277 11-10 11:38
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? No +450 $213 38¢ $169 -$44 10-28 22:49
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,271 $193 10¢ $133 -$59 11-04 16:11
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,250 $578 1¢ $98 -$480 09-20 18:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +5,000 $250 2¢ $93 -$158 11-04 17:01
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +124 $42 74¢ $91 +$49 10-24 02:53