Realized P&L
+$78.5K
Unrealized P&L
-$4.71K
Hit rate
72.3%
Resolved
479
Trades
6,715
lifetime
Volume
$1.41M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$210
Open exposure
$12.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-25
last 11-10 02:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 101 days
Categories
Other
51% 52% +$66,035
Tech
28% 52% +$12,748
Politics
18% 33% -$3,589
Crypto
2% 55% +$649
Sports
1% 50% +$2,628
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +9,595 $1,878 16¢ $1.5K -$343 11-09 21:40
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +7,197 $1,254 18¢ $1.3K +$5 11-09 18:08
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,636 $911 47¢ $1.2K +$334 11-09 20:14
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? Yes +8,061 $1,183 15¢ $1.2K -$14 11-09 14:47
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Yes +20,000 $925 4¢ $890 -$35 11-09 19:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? Yes +17,665 $2,664 5¢ $839 -$1,825 11-09 20:45
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,567 $549 12¢ $571 +$22 11-09 20:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +3,000 $821 18¢ $525 -$296 11-09 21:39
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +499 $148 89¢ $446 +$298 10-01 01:56
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +2,031 $357 18¢ $376 +$18 11-09 18:00
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +3,500 $300 10¢ $336 +$36 11-09 18:03
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? No +322 $221 100¢ $321 +$100 10-30 19:45
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? No +298 $170 98¢ $293 +$123 08-31 20:06
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,340 $1,337 8¢ $272 -$1,064 11-04 16:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +5,000 $351 5¢ $262 -$88 11-09 18:02
will the openai spy be accused of working for saudi arabia by december 31 20261014120000000 Yes +1,590 -$187 16¢ $262 +$450 11-04 16:08
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? Yes +927 $305 26¢ $246 -$59 11-10 02:15
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,796 $1,239 3¢ $230 -$1,009 10-16 18:05
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +705 $173 29¢ $204 +$32 10-24 03:07
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,271 $193 15¢ $191 -$2 11-04 16:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +5,000 $250 4¢ $188 -$62 11-04 17:01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +424 $145 32¢ $138 -$8 10-12 20:36
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? No +450 $213 26¢ $115 -$98 10-28 22:49
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +7,250 $578 1¢ $91 -$487 09-20 18:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +337 $198 26¢ $88 -$110 11-09 19:09
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +124 $42 65¢ $81 +$38 10-24 02:53
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +2,559 $104 3¢ $75 -$29 11-09 19:13
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +6,012 $495 1¢ $72 -$423 11-05 23:38
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes +584 $184 11¢ $62 -$121 10-05 08:14
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? No +694 $155 9¢ $62 -$93 10-28 22:49