Merry-Check — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$421

Unrealized P&L

+$74

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$1.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$93

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-29 19:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Sports

44% 50% +$428

Other

43% 17% -$23

Politics

13% 14% +$18

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+1,667	$5	5¢	$78	+$73	09-25 18:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+34	$10	30¢	$10	+$0	09-24 17:19
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	+98	$2	2¢	$2	+$0	09-10 19:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+120	$2	2¢	$2	$0	08-10 10:54
Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	-96	-$3	1¢	$-1	+$2	07-06 21:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$408	803	350	+453	Yes	+$407	07-14 20:26
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	10	$120	413	132	+281	Yes	+$49	05-11 06:38
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$114	200	200	+0	No	+$44	07-10 19:54
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$90	38	86	-48	Yes	+$0	09-11 12:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$52	41	41	+0	No	+$22	10-26 19:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$49	182	150	+32	No	+$16	07-20 20:54
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?	3	$25	47	0	+47	Yes	+$22	09-11 12:27
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in february 763 544 382 181	1	$22	59	0	+59	Yes	+$36	03-01 21:52
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	1	$20	43	0	+43	No	-$20	09-24 17:14
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	2	$19	29	29	+0	open	—	10-29 19:38
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$19	136	0	+136	No	-$19	07-15 20:17
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	3	$18	261	0	+261	No	-$18	07-25 11:17
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$16	56	56	+0	open	—	10-28 15:26
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	1	$15	150	0	+150	open	—	10-28 15:19
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	1	$15	39	0	+39	Yes	+$24	09-24 17:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$15	43	0	+43	Yes	+$28	08-10 10:53
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	7	$15	150	0	+150	open	—	10-28 15:26
us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	3	$11	110	0	+110	Yes	-$11	02-14 13:06
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	9	$10	77	0	+77	No	-$10	09-10 21:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	1	$10	34	0	+34	open	—	09-24 17:19
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	1	$10	48	0	+48	No	-$10	09-25 18:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$10	125	0	+125	Yes	-$10	04-20 19:15
will annual inflation increase by 2pt5 in january 758	1	$10	27	0	+27	No	-$10	01-18 17:41
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?	3	$7	501	0	+501	No	-$7	07-03 12:29
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June?	3	$7	575	0	+575	No	-$7	07-06 21:07
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	4	$6	479	0	+479	No	-$6	08-10 10:51
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in September?	1	$5	67	0	+67	No	-$5	09-24 17:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	714	0	+714	No	-$5	04-14 09:13
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	1	$5	556	0	+556	No	-$5	01-18 17:50
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$5	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	09-25 18:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:38:09	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	30¢	$9	0x3daa2d…
10-29 12:42:22	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc0526d…
10-28 18:03:13	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6b2312…
10-28 15:26:44	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	56	20¢	$11	0xea5d82…
10-28 15:26:10	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xe7dd6f…
10-28 15:21:47	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x5b70ff…
10-28 15:21:07	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x763102…
10-28 15:20:17	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	213	1¢	$3	0x780c72…
10-28 15:19:59	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xcfa962…
10-26 19:33:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	41	92¢	$37	0xcf520b…
10-22 15:29:06	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x368f27…
10-22 15:29:06	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x0c6ec4…
10-22 08:06:51	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xd69db2…
10-20 06:53:43	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xec2c8e…
10-14 02:53:52	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4d22e6…
10-14 02:52:35	Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xfc19ef…
09-25 19:01:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xcaeb9b…
09-25 19:00:39	Exact Score: Italy 1 - 0 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xfe4588…
09-25 18:58:32	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xb2ab23…
09-25 18:51:12	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x32c18c…
09-24 17:22:15	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x4b2f46…
09-24 17:19:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x3996d1…
09-24 17:17:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0x33685b…
09-24 17:16:32	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0x869ecd…
09-24 17:15:20	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x0e3325…
09-24 17:14:48	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x439be9…
09-11 12:41:39	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x8339ed…
09-11 12:39:06	Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in September?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0x82c371…
09-11 12:36:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0xee58f3…
09-11 12:32:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	82¢	$24	0x7b27d8…
09-11 12:27:28	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x79d076…
09-11 12:24:51	Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0x0a95f6…
09-11 12:22:07	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1ec219…
09-11 12:22:00	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x574305…
09-10 21:22:27	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0xed40ad…
09-10 21:22:27	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xaa5a6c…
09-10 21:22:27	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x9d1bc9…
09-10 21:22:27	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x1a0194…
09-10 21:18:40	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x10daea…
09-10 21:18:00	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa6b3ac…
09-10 21:18:00	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x400da6…
09-10 21:18:00	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x28f936…
09-10 20:12:58	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x32a131…
09-10 19:51:10	Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	153	1¢	$1	0xcfcc0f…
09-10 19:50:48	Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August?	Yes	BUY	193	2¢	$3	0x536a0a…
09-10 19:40:46	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xfe419c…
09-10 19:38:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xa6ab76…
09-04 10:11:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	80¢	$45	0x63d23f…
08-10 10:58:34	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xa85f25…
08-10 10:54:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xe01032…
08-10 10:54:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x8f9a63…
08-10 10:53:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xaf15eb…
08-10 10:51:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x603326…
08-10 10:51:10	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	157	1¢	$1	0x14e237…
08-01 18:12:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x1909ce…
08-01 18:11:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x46617c…
08-01 17:58:38	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	154	0¢	$1	0x6ec38d…
07-25 11:18:33	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x5708d7…
07-25 11:17:49	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x10f3a0…
07-25 11:17:07	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xde1b1b…
07-25 11:16:52	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?	Yes	BUY	281	0¢	$1	0x03a32f…
07-25 11:16:39	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xafc6cd…
07-22 14:12:58	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$2	0xc2f1f9…
07-22 14:12:46	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?	Yes	BUY	239	1¢	$2	0x305c22…
07-22 14:11:40	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	BUY	64	3¢	$2	0xbf4ae9…
07-20 21:14:34	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$1	0x001420…
07-20 21:14:16	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xbbaf65…
07-20 21:14:03	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1d9f96…
07-20 21:13:52	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	490	0¢	$1	0x0c8d35…
07-20 21:03:13	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$1	0x6c471c…
07-20 21:03:07	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0x525fd2…
07-20 21:03:00	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x24e849…
07-20 21:02:43	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xdb6db1…
07-20 20:55:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xc368d3…
07-20 20:55:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xb43f1b…
07-20 20:54:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	137	7¢	$10	0x3af0eb…
07-20 20:53:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xd7d492…
07-15 20:17:49	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xd36f2a…
07-15 20:15:32	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	15¢	$5	0x7c31db…
07-14 20:26:08	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x8a772e…
07-14 20:25:19	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x6aa453…
07-14 20:24:58	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x98015d…
07-14 20:24:40	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0xe36183…
07-14 20:24:17	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xfad1b5…
07-14 20:24:02	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	70	54¢	$38	0xb9384b…
07-14 20:24:02	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x7580f0…
07-14 20:23:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	24	54¢	$13	0x6aa14d…
07-12 02:31:01	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x309eb8…
07-12 02:30:37	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xb37e90…
07-12 02:30:37	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x661c42…
07-11 21:55:04	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x9d40f5…
07-11 20:50:38	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x8b25df…
07-11 20:50:22	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd4c8d3…
07-11 20:50:14	Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x46bd9a…
07-11 19:37:14	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xe1d121…
07-10 19:54:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	39¢	$79	0xd238aa…
07-09 21:48:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x13c34b…
07-09 21:35:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x8ee8dd…
07-08 20:15:10	Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd2ef9e…
07-08 20:04:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	150	22¢	$32	0xa3238f…