Giddy-Venison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$37

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$429

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-28 12:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

67% 53% +$15

Politics

29% 62% +$18

Crypto

3% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-15	-$14	97¢	$-15	-$1	05-04 11:11
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	+12	$5	12¢	$2	-$4	09-03 22:42
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+18	$3	8¢	$1	-$2	09-03 22:29
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	-20	-$1	2¢	$-0	+$1	05-04 11:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	3	$86	50	50	+0	No	-$4	07-12 15:01
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	2	$57	50	50	+0	No	+$35	07-03 11:39
will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	3	$28	18	18	+0	Yes	+$5	02-27 01:15
will pltr dip to 126 in february	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	-$6	02-24 04:20
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	2	$22	20	20	+0	Yes	+$18	08-14 10:15
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	1	$18	20	0	+20	No	+$2	05-23 04:58
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	1	$17	25	0	+25	Yes	+$8	05-23 04:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$16	10	10	+0	No	+$3	06-23 16:09
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	2	$16	10	10	+0	No	+$4	08-14 10:16
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$14	0	15	-15	open	—	05-04 11:11
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$14	10	10	+0	No	+$4	02-25 09:45
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	1	$10	50	0	+50	Yes	-$10	06-22 20:37
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$1	02-24 04:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$8	10	0	+10	No	+$2	05-04 11:16
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	1	$8	100	0	+100	No	-$8	07-10 11:30
will pltr dip to 111 in february	3	$7	25	25	+0	No	-$3	02-24 04:40
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	4	$7	28	0	+28	Yes	-$7	02-11 14:15
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	1	$7	10	0	+10	No	+$3	05-04 11:15
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	2	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	10-28 12:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	02-11 20:23
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?	1	$5	27	0	+27	open	—	10-10 14:19
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	09-03 22:29
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%?	1	$5	29	0	+29	No	-$5	10-08 18:03
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	09-03 22:42
peter mandelson charged by march 31	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	02-24 04:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$5	10	0	+10	No	-$5	05-04 11:12
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$4	10	0	+10	Yes	+$6	05-04 11:18
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$4	20	0	+20	Yes	-$4	01-25 20:33
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	18	0	+18	open	—	09-03 22:29
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	1	$2	10	0	+10	No	-$2	09-04 13:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:45:44	Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x08f75e…
10-26 23:58:24	Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x7d236e…
10-10 14:19:52	Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x30b32b…
10-08 18:03:20	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xbf13e7…
09-04 13:44:46	Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$2	0x242ae7…
09-03 22:42:31	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2225a5…
09-03 22:29:48	Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x695f25…
09-03 22:29:34	Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x3e7667…
08-14 10:16:01	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x044e03…
08-14 10:15:52	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x73eaed…
07-12 15:07:38	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xb57a93…
07-12 15:01:14	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xeab9ec…
07-10 13:46:11	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x614571…
07-10 11:47:16	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	No	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0x506ae0…
07-10 11:42:58	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x91e5ad…
07-10 11:30:44	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x790d7b…
07-03 11:39:26	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x5dfc9a…
06-23 16:09:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xff8a07…
06-22 20:37:28	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x775804…
06-22 20:29:04	Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x986488…
06-22 20:24:50	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x3b9e7b…
05-23 04:59:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xd9bdb3…
05-23 04:58:36	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0xcea028…
05-23 04:58:10	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x078cc0…
05-04 11:18:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xea84f2…
05-04 11:16:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe2e0e0…
05-04 11:15:48	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x58c767…
05-04 11:12:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xb4a90e…
05-04 11:11:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x1480f1…
05-04 11:11:16	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x1b8f20…
05-04 11:11:06	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x849fd3…
05-04 11:11:02	Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x362310…
05-04 11:10:56	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xd10a18…
02-27 01:15:26	will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	Yes	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0x599446…
02-25 09:45:38	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x2622eb…
02-24 04:40:54	will pltr dip to 111 in february	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x796048…
02-24 04:39:56	peter mandelson charged by march 31	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x45ad24…
02-24 04:33:04	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc0155d…
02-24 04:31:24	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xeb2e7d…
02-24 04:20:14	will pltr dip to 126 in february	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x51be65…
02-24 04:20:02	will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x08150b…
02-13 15:11:13	will pltr dip to 111 in february	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x47746d…
02-12 21:46:25	will pltr dip to 111 in february	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcebf5a…
02-12 19:54:33	will pltr dip to 126 in february	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xcb6e63…
02-11 20:23:43	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x5b38e5…
02-11 14:15:15	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x1c92ad…
02-11 14:12:09	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x866322…
02-11 01:54:37	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xafeb44…
02-11 01:47:01	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xe329cc…
02-07 00:40:29	will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x733c94…
01-25 20:33:36	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xf3b4f5…