Outlying-Advantage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.2%

Resolved

Trades

550

lifetime

Volume

$858

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 05-17 01:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 84% $-1

Sports

6% 100% +$1

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba bkn phi 2026 03 14	4	$26	250	188	+62	open	—	03-14 19:11
nba det was 2026 03 17	4	$13	450	0	+450	open	—	03-18 00:49
btc updown 5m 1773426600	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-13 18:34
btc updown 5m 1773359400	2	$8	11	10	+0	open	—	03-12 23:54
btc updown 5m 1776578700	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-19 06:09
btc updown 5m 1776573600	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-19 04:40
btc updown 5m 1776574800	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-19 05:02
btc updown 5m 1776565200	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-19 02:24
btc updown 5m 1773425700	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	03-13 18:19
btc updown 5m 1776562800	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-19 01:44
btc updown 5m 1776579300	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-19 06:18
btc updown 5m 1773422400	1	$5	45	0	+45	open	—	03-13 17:22
btc updown 5m 1773359700	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	03-12 23:59
btc updown 5m 1773426900	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	03-13 18:40
btc updown 5m 1776563400	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-19 01:54
btc updown 5m 1776573900	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-19 04:49
nba ind nyk 2026 03 17	1	$5	80	0	+80	open	—	03-18 00:47
btc updown 5m 1773358800	3	$3	7	2	+5	open	—	03-12 23:43
Thunder vs. Lakers	3	$3	6	6	+0	Thunder	+$1	05-12 04:47
btc updown 5m 1776842400	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 07:22
btc updown 5m 1776861900	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 12:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-30 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 02:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-29 12:21
btc updown 5m 1776842100	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 07:17
btc updown 5m 1776751200	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-21 06:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-24 22:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-27 17:00
btc updown 5m 1776688800	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-20 12:44
btc updown 5m 1776860700	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 12:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 01:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x7bfda1…
05-17 00:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf85957…
05-17 00:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xc7dbc3…
05-17 00:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0x847088…
05-16 23:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x285928…
05-15 05:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd7083c…
05-15 05:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x30c489…
05-15 05:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0x8af1b8…
05-15 02:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3ff75c…
05-15 02:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xe356ce…
05-15 00:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa75c25…
05-14 23:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xee3ad9…
05-14 22:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x610117…
05-14 22:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x285d71…
05-14 13:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x26b3be…
05-14 13:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa69374…
05-14 13:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb49b7e…
05-14 10:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe5f1b2…
05-14 10:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcaad43…
05-14 10:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2a6087…
05-14 07:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xef7dac…
05-14 07:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x36a0e3…
05-14 07:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xddb201…
05-14 06:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x420184…
05-14 05:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4f5007…
05-14 05:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x222f9f…
05-14 03:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x629c08…
05-14 03:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf20068…
05-14 02:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xed2fb3…
05-14 02:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa425d1…
05-13 02:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2053af…
05-13 01:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0xa56035…
05-13 01:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbe12f8…
05-13 00:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x04234c…
05-13 00:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xaa0c74…
05-13 00:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x78793c…
05-13 00:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2d14cb…
05-13 00:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x99a100…
05-12 23:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0x2b2363…
05-12 23:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x353a35…
05-12 22:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x47d151…
05-12 20:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd251cc…
05-12 20:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0x68c0db…
05-12 04:47:04	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xc8d048…
05-12 04:45:42	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x51ac1f…
05-12 04:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x46da50…
05-12 03:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x066768…
05-12 01:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xd9fbfb…
05-12 01:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xce4377…
05-12 01:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x5c8508…
05-12 01:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$1	0xfed08c…
05-12 01:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x2658c0…
05-12 01:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0xa831a7…
05-12 00:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe9a8b1…
05-12 00:39:48	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x83300c…
05-12 00:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x7959e7…
05-12 00:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1db41e…
05-12 00:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d3bf0…
05-12 00:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x32f17d…
05-11 23:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf91141…
05-11 22:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf64dc2…
05-11 21:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7fc226…
05-11 20:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfe2606…
05-01 00:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0x570d9d…
04-30 22:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xfefbb1…
04-30 22:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x140b08…
04-30 22:03:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x1e5f44…
04-30 22:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0x533fc3…
04-30 20:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xbb22af…
04-30 20:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcbf964…
04-30 18:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x95a3ec…
04-30 18:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xaf0b40…
04-30 18:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x82eb41…
04-30 18:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x93c575…
04-30 16:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x3680c4…
04-30 16:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0x76c4b3…
04-30 15:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x726516…
04-30 15:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0x05427a…
04-30 15:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x5ef17a…
04-30 15:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x11e019…
04-30 14:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4b5623…
04-30 13:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x84c74f…
04-30 13:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6b5a84…
04-30 13:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1db9a5…
04-30 11:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x0c47b8…
04-30 09:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf93579…
04-30 09:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x768141…
04-30 09:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x6fcd2a…
04-30 09:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x63b737…
04-30 09:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x65eac6…
04-30 08:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8cf0a4…
04-30 08:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xadbd76…
04-30 08:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xa46b95…
04-30 08:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0xa7f89c…
04-30 05:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xfe91ba…
04-30 04:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x72a5fe…
04-30 04:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x6ef4a5…
04-30 04:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x85dabc…
04-30 00:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1208e5…
04-29 23:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd103aa…