Identical-Thrush — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

44.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$590

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$63

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-05 08:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Tech

35% 50% -$4

Other

26% 100% +$2

Crypto

23% 100% +$0

Sports

16% 0% —

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+64	$63	100¢	$63	+$0	06-03 07:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	5	$198	127	127	+0	Yes	-$4	04-21 15:02
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$92	46,200	46,200	+0	No	+$0	07-01 18:24
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$63	64	0	+64	open	—	06-03 07:05
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-09 14:54
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 2?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-02 12:23
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-06 10:42
Will Solana dip to $65 on May 2?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-02 12:23
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-06 10:41
Will Solana reach $100 on May 2?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-02 12:23
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-09 14:54
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-06 10:41
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-06 10:42
will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 9	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-09 14:55
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 3?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-02 12:24
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-09 14:54
Will Solana reach $95 on May 2?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-02 12:23
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-06 10:42
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	02-04 09:41
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-06 10:43
Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-04 09:41
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-06 10:41
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-06 10:41
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-06 10:41
will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-09 14:54
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-04 09:42
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	02-04 09:41
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 3?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-02 12:23
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-04 09:42
Over $150M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-04 09:41
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 9	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	01-09 14:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 08:50:30	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe8eefe…
07-07 06:34:04	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 9?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbe57fa…
07-01 18:24:41	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	46,200	0¢	$46	0x949828…
07-01 09:27:56	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	46,200	0¢	$46	0xe06952…
06-03 07:05:32	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x1bee9e…
05-06 10:43:08	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcaa712…
05-06 10:42:48	Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa4daff…
05-06 10:42:42	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9c92df…
05-06 10:42:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xf58fb8…
05-06 10:41:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x366044…
05-06 10:41:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x0f4c75…
05-06 10:41:32	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x93eb78…
05-06 10:41:24	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdfba6b…
05-06 10:41:16	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x95196c…
05-02 12:24:38	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3e8a86…
05-02 12:24:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 3?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x40c5f6…
05-02 12:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 3?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf582f5…
05-02 12:23:54	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 3?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x71dbc9…
05-02 12:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 3?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9445a8…
05-02 12:23:36	Will Solana dip to $75 on May 2?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5d2458…
05-02 12:23:28	Will Solana dip to $65 on May 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa93fa4…
05-02 12:23:24	Will Solana dip to $70 on May 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc82aaf…
05-02 12:23:14	Will Solana reach $90 on May 2?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x47244b…
05-02 12:23:06	Will Solana reach $95 on May 2?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5e9d7d…
05-02 12:23:00	Will Solana reach $100 on May 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ae30d…
04-21 15:02:46	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	77¢	$51	0xa73664…
04-21 11:39:52	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xad8edf…
04-21 11:34:54	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	83¢	$54	0xefb076…
04-21 07:01:20	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	76¢	$46	0xca66cb…
04-20 23:41:10	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	76¢	$46	0x535858…
03-13 09:23:15	dota2 heroic vg 2026 03 13	Heroic	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xa748ac…
02-04 09:42:26	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in february 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x03673c…
02-04 09:42:16	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in february 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfcefc4…
02-04 09:42:08	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xd780fb…
02-04 09:42:00	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5233e4…
02-04 09:41:48	Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa5c770…
02-04 09:41:38	Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9347cd…
02-04 09:41:26	Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0ec540…
02-04 09:41:18	Over $150M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xfca57b…
02-04 09:41:12	Over $120M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x77873e…
02-04 09:41:00	Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x00c805…
01-09 14:55:32	will tesla be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb0ca75…
01-09 14:55:24	will threads be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xddb113…
01-09 14:55:14	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 9	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8e0806…
01-09 14:55:08	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 9	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb00dca…
01-09 14:55:00	will skyview be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on january 9	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x376524…
01-09 14:54:48	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xafc470…
01-09 14:54:36	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x699592…
01-09 14:54:30	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x127047…
01-09 14:54:22	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2d012b…