Severe-Parent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

3.3%

Resolved

Trades

221

lifetime

Volume

$15.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$68

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-25 21:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% 50% +$0

Politics

32% — —

Sports

13% 0% $-0

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No		+1	$-5	60¢	$0	+$5	06-04 19:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	11	$741	536	536	+0	open	—	04-24 19:38
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	11	$641	622	622	+0	open	—	06-23 15:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$623	407	407	+0	open	—	05-23 23:37
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$617	323	323	+0	open	—	05-19 07:24
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$608	310	310	+0	open	—	03-22 14:41
GTA VI released before June 2026?	4	$596	307	307	+0	open	—	03-17 05:14
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	18	$595	941	941	+0	open	—	05-26 08:07
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$586	319	319	+0	No	+$0	04-18 12:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$558	290	290	+0	open	—	04-25 21:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$436	322	170	+152	open	—	05-29 07:59
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	3	$345	175	175	+0	open	—	03-13 10:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	7	$342	514	514	+0	open	—	05-21 17:42
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	9	$326	308	307	+1	open	—	06-09 02:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$326	579	579	+0	open	—	05-20 23:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$318	167	167	+0	open	—	05-29 04:00
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$315	164	164	+0	open	—	05-22 01:36
will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$313	160	160	+0	open	—	03-15 01:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$312	188	188	+0	open	—	05-18 15:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$310	163	163	+0	open	—	04-07 18:18
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$306	156	156	+0	open	—	04-11 12:54
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	5	$303	457	457	+0	open	—	06-22 22:21
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	3	$300	152	152	+0	open	—	06-05 19:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$300	185	185	+0	open	—	06-08 05:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	3	$296	260	260	+0	open	—	05-30 01:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	3	$296	269	269	+0	open	—	05-29 18:48
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$293	150	150	+0	No	$-0	04-23 19:34
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$283	143	143	+0	open	—	04-07 23:18
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	2	$282	146	146	+0	open	—	03-20 11:34
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	4	$282	174	174	+0	open	—	06-24 20:13
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$281	147	147	+0	open	—	03-21 08:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 21:24:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	48	7¢	$4	0x5d5d85…
06-25 21:24:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	266	7¢	$19	0x200191…
06-25 19:51:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xab5a6d…
06-25 19:51:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	294	4¢	$12	0xa51c48…
06-24 20:13:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xb7ed6b…
06-24 20:13:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	35	81¢	$28	0x2f5c66…
06-24 20:13:11	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	137	81¢	$111	0x9d7dc3…
06-24 16:07:31	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	174	81¢	$141	0x2dbd4d…
06-24 06:14:32	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x897ac9…
06-24 06:14:32	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	115	98¢	$112	0x6f5e33…
06-24 03:02:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	143	97¢	$139	0x03e42b…
06-23 15:06:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0xa7daeb…
06-23 15:06:53	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	151	86¢	$130	0x1ab669…
06-23 12:37:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xf4d3df…
06-23 12:37:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	149	86¢	$128	0x1d4391…
06-23 09:40:44	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	98	86¢	$84	0x22be42…
06-23 09:40:44	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	64	86¢	$55	0x1a9fb9…
06-23 07:26:41	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	52	86¢	$45	0x7128b4…
06-23 07:26:41	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	110	86¢	$94	0x50cea2…
06-23 06:01:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	135	14¢	$19	0x24b4b5…
06-23 06:01:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	163	14¢	$23	0x1dc5c7…
06-23 03:22:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	298	14¢	$42	0xe23a1b…
06-22 22:21:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	140	99¢	$138	0x7d03b4…
06-22 20:41:32	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0x3c959d…
06-20 08:28:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	188	74¢	$139	0xad7438…
06-20 04:08:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	164	74¢	$121	0x48beae…
06-20 04:08:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0x43757e…
06-17 00:58:41	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	317	4¢	$13	0x775424…
06-17 00:57:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	4¢	$6	0xdd39ff…
06-17 00:57:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	4¢	$7	0x99af82…
06-13 07:33:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	36¢	$15	0xbf6814…
06-13 02:09:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	36¢	$30	0x8e645f…
06-13 02:09:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	93	36¢	$34	0x60cb4c…
06-12 19:36:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	338	19¢	$64	0x548693…
06-12 16:51:00	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	39	22¢	$9	0x8eb719…
06-12 16:50:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	299	22¢	$66	0x8e2aa4…
06-12 13:23:28	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	101	91¢	$92	0xf88246…
06-12 12:08:39	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	101	91¢	$92	0x1af86f…
06-11 01:55:48	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	319	18¢	$57	0xc9ecf9…
06-11 01:54:22	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	319	17¢	$54	0xd5d28d…
06-10 10:43:01	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x0255dc…
06-10 08:42:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	174	10¢	$17	0x9a8953…
06-10 08:42:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	435	10¢	$43	0x86564f…
06-10 07:34:45	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	634	10¢	$63	0x965b04…
06-09 02:33:58	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	39	39¢	$15	0x013498…
06-09 00:22:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x78f586…
06-08 05:40:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	185	81¢	$150	0x86ae00…
06-06 00:37:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0xb59dc6…
06-05 19:44:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0x0d3db3…
06-05 17:29:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf60e2b…
06-05 17:29:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$144	0xa45e6f…
06-04 19:31:07	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	176	56¢	$99	0x9b5c37…
06-04 18:29:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x3c29f4…
06-04 18:06:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0x573091…
06-04 16:25:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x92a720…
06-04 16:15:09	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0x78bfe5…
06-04 14:04:16	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	49	56¢	$28	0xcda953…
06-04 12:31:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	269	54¢	$145	0xf0dc55…
05-30 19:25:18	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0xac44d8…
05-30 17:10:49	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xaf577a…
05-30 14:43:59	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x578a08…
05-30 08:34:58	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0xf93e65…
05-30 04:55:49	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	295	4¢	$13	0x35e226…
05-30 01:08:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	260	57¢	$148	0xb9a514…
05-29 23:10:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	147	57¢	$84	0xe366dd…
05-29 23:10:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	57¢	$64	0x90d926…
05-29 18:48:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	223	55¢	$123	0x9612f2…
05-29 18:48:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	55¢	$25	0x448f30…
05-29 16:24:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	55¢	$148	0xe65096…
05-29 07:59:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	52	87¢	$46	0x9c2d32…
05-29 07:59:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	86	87¢	$75	0x02fa8f…
05-29 07:58:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	32	87¢	$28	0xede039…
05-29 04:25:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	170	85¢	$144	0x4f6bd0…
05-29 04:00:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	167	95¢	$159	0xad56bc…
05-29 02:44:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	167	95¢	$159	0x262b7b…
05-28 05:01:11	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0xa6eae6…
05-28 03:38:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xa2f4fa…
05-26 15:47:07	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	252	8¢	$21	0x1c5408…
05-26 13:44:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	13¢	$32	0x1e71cc…
05-26 08:07:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	262	4¢	$11	0xaf38cf…
05-26 08:07:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0xbfe735…
05-26 08:07:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0x93144e…
05-26 07:04:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xf186b2…
05-26 07:04:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0xde4544…
05-26 07:04:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	164	4¢	$7	0x7c4393…
05-26 07:04:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x1be57d…
05-23 23:37:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x98bc9f…
05-23 21:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xaf7bb9…
05-23 21:40:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	94	19¢	$18	0x6e294f…
05-23 06:58:32	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	152	94¢	$143	0x1ba421…
05-22 01:36:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	89	96¢	$85	0xc81ea6…
05-22 01:36:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x8bc416…
05-22 00:41:46	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	164	96¢	$157	0xaaf18e…
05-21 17:42:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	123	3¢	$4	0xdfea58…
05-21 15:59:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	123	3¢	$4	0x640839…
05-21 09:26:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	164	96¢	$158	0xe65e65…
05-21 07:55:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	164	96¢	$158	0x40b735…
05-20 23:16:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	111	5¢	$5	0x253089…
05-20 23:16:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xe8f4c6…
05-20 23:16:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$3	0xbadcfc…