Intent-Fortnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved

Trades

108

lifetime

Volume

$9.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

$86

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 07-22 08:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

58% — —

Other

33% 60% $-24

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-58	$-49	94¢	$-55	$-6	06-04 12:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No		-32	$-29	97¢	$-31	$-2	05-31 09:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	2	$804	405	405	+0	open	—	06-30 13:38
iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	4	$684	605	95	+510	open	—	07-19 13:11
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	5	$663	377	377	+0	open	—	07-12 04:30
iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	7	$646	532	133	+399	open	—	07-15 13:06
iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	2	$552	558	0	+558	open	—	07-17 01:30
iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	3	$464	479	0	+479	open	—	07-10 03:02
iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	4	$458	235	235	+0	open	—	07-18 13:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$447	232	232	+0	open	—	06-06 05:34
iran successfully targets shipping on july 13	1	$400	423	0	+423	open	—	07-15 15:42
iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	2	$392	213	213	+0	open	—	07-13 12:45
will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	1	$365	388	0	+388	open	—	07-03 21:58
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	4	$356	180	180	+0	open	—	07-13 01:47
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	1	$310	425	0	+425	open	—	06-16 11:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$250	128	128	+0	open	—	06-01 03:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$233	554	0	+554	open	—	06-16 11:45
iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	1	$215	229	0	+229	open	—	07-07 12:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	7	$210	124	124	+0	open	—	05-23 22:46
iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	2	$210	232	0	+232	open	—	07-20 22:05
will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	07-02 07:27
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	2	$200	224	0	+224	open	—	07-18 01:48
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	1	$200	203	0	+203	open	—	07-06 22:13
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	1	$195	211	0	+211	open	—	07-22 08:54
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	3	$191	100	100	+0	open	—	07-10 02:23
iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	1	$182	198	0	+198	open	—	07-21 22:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$164	88	88	+0	open	—	05-30 01:10
iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	1	$97	109	0	+109	open	—	07-19 13:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$93	51	51	+0	open	—	05-23 09:21
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	06-28 00:42
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	3	$71	50	29	+21	Yes	$-19	05-07 14:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	2	$71	64	64	+0	open	—	06-01 13:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 08:54:40	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	211	93¢	$195	0xa49579…
07-21 22:14:04	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	198	92¢	$182	0xcfd3c7…
07-20 22:05:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xca41b2…
07-20 07:06:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	BUY	121	91¢	$110	0x3eb250…
07-19 13:12:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	No	BUY	109	89¢	$97	0xf58cd3…
07-19 13:11:33	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0xd00911…
07-18 13:14:04	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	236	98¢	$230	0x23662d…
07-18 13:08:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x37b39c…
07-18 13:08:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x0c6772…
07-18 13:08:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	176	99¢	$175	0xe05495…
07-18 06:54:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	BUY	235	96¢	$225	0x0403f5…
07-18 01:48:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa43994…
07-18 01:07:15	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	328	98¢	$320	0x294294…
07-18 01:05:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x374bf8…
07-17 23:25:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x801b34…
07-17 01:30:26	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	Yes	BUY	425	99¢	$420	0x5f7002…
07-15 15:42:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 13	No	BUY	423	95¢	$400	0xf74574…
07-15 13:07:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xf715ff…
07-15 13:06:29	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x64d2cc…
07-13 21:45:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	219	97¢	$211	0xd0bf52…
07-13 12:45:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	SELL	213	99¢	$211	0xddd09f…
07-13 01:49:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	187	96¢	$180	0x4cb200…
07-13 01:47:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0x86e566…
07-12 04:30:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x6396ad…
07-12 04:30:07	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	92	95¢	$87	0xd3af58…
07-12 00:55:13	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xaba1e7…
07-12 00:47:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb866de…
07-12 00:46:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x05987d…
07-12 00:45:23	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0xc45238…
07-12 00:15:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	BUY	213	85¢	$181	0x5dda6b…
07-11 05:47:34	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	130	94¢	$122	0x411349…
07-10 22:20:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x43d808…
07-10 22:20:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd5d01a…
07-10 22:14:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x9d6462…
07-10 03:02:28	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xe50fde…
07-10 02:23:40	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	100	97¢	$96	0x5bd0b4…
07-10 02:20:25	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x3a9207…
07-09 12:37:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	235	97¢	$229	0x62be9e…
07-08 22:02:44	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	144	96¢	$138	0x87854d…
07-08 11:31:55	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xb135fe…
07-08 11:02:07	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	247	95¢	$233	0xdfd802…
07-07 12:00:43	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	BUY	229	94¢	$215	0xbec71b…
07-06 22:13:25	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xc64cb9…
07-04 04:17:32	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	247	75¢	$186	0x9dac48…
07-03 21:58:49	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	388	94¢	$365	0x18008e…
07-02 07:27:50	will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xe467f6…
07-01 11:03:46	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x3f8907…
06-30 13:38:35	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	405	100¢	$404	0xaf2d1a…
06-28 00:51:07	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x1e8e8f…
06-28 00:42:40	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x593ea4…
06-26 22:30:52	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x660c18…
06-25 12:04:43	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0x53efef…
06-16 11:45:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	308	1¢	$4	0x097110…
06-16 11:44:40	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	425	73¢	$310	0x8262d6…
06-06 05:35:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	246	93¢	$229	0xa462f0…
06-06 05:34:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	232	99¢	$229	0x7390da…
06-04 12:28:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	51	95¢	$49	0x228d19…
06-04 12:25:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	58	85¢	$49	0x4cbc8f…
06-01 13:46:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0xd99ff9…
06-01 13:45:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	64	65¢	$42	0xc0de8f…
06-01 03:15:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	138	93¢	$128	0x5dc99c…
06-01 03:08:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xf412bc…
05-31 09:42:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	64	46¢	$29	0x90cfdb…
05-31 09:41:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	32	91¢	$29	0x6f39d8…
05-30 01:13:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	95¢	$122	0x9f6400…
05-30 01:10:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0xcb984c…
05-30 01:10:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x46704f…
05-25 03:06:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	88	86¢	$76	0x8ee606…
05-23 22:46:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	79	96¢	$76	0x868f18…
05-23 09:21:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	51	95¢	$48	0xd9b58a…
05-22 13:12:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x155ff4…
05-22 11:46:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	26	89¢	$24	0xf7507d…
05-21 11:31:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$4	0x409193…
05-21 11:27:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x575988…
05-15 13:33:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0xc62dc6…
05-11 08:09:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0xbda1e9…
05-10 02:44:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	46	74¢	$34	0x7203e8…
05-09 23:08:02	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x46a4ed…
05-08 12:53:28	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xe5a9c9…
05-08 12:20:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0x24a34c…
05-08 11:49:14	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xa565b5…
05-08 07:49:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x2516e7…
05-07 21:36:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x577f8b…
05-07 16:44:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	36	24¢	$9	0x7c4f87…
05-07 14:23:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa4b036…
05-07 14:06:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$20	0xb8d971…
05-07 13:10:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x0a0689…
05-07 12:26:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x420a16…
05-07 06:55:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0xab5a7c…
05-04 00:30:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x25c2cc…
05-03 23:09:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x446b92…
05-03 13:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x00568f…
05-03 12:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb479b1…
05-03 12:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xbd4519…
05-03 11:16:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc44e9c…
05-03 11:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4246e8…
05-03 10:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x4e23de…
05-03 10:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1a7882…
05-03 10:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xcfd848…
05-03 09:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xee111d…