Intent-Fortnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$184

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.5%

Resolved

Trades

143

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 07-30 23:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

50% 88% -$23

Other

41% 92% -$215

Sports

7% 100% +$39

Crypto

1% 82% +$14

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-30).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	4	$1.0K	535	535	+0	No	+$26	07-30 23:30
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$811	409	409	+0	Yes	+$1	07-30 23:30
will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	2	$804	405	405	+0	No	+$4	06-30 13:38
iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	4	$684	605	95	+510	No	+$14	07-19 13:11
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	5	$663	377	377	+0	No	+$49	07-12 04:30
iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	7	$646	532	133	+399	Yes	+$18	07-15 13:06
iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	2	$552	558	0	+558	Yes	+$6	07-17 01:30
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026?	2	$506	408	102	+306	No	+$4	07-01 21:28
iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	3	$464	479	0	+479	No	+$15	07-10 03:02
iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	4	$458	235	235	+0	Yes	+$8	07-18 13:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$447	232	232	+0	No	+$11	06-06 05:34
iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	7	$417	232	232	+0	No	-$3	07-25 06:22
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$413	213	213	+0	No	+$13	07-06 22:12
iran successfully targets shipping on july 13	1	$400	423	0	+423	No	+$23	07-15 15:42
iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	2	$392	213	213	+0	No	+$30	07-13 12:45
will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	1	$365	388	0	+388	Yes	+$23	07-03 21:58
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	4	$356	180	180	+0	No	+$4	07-13 01:47
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	1	$310	425	0	+425	Yes	-$310	06-16 11:44
iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	1	$280	283	0	+283	No	+$3	07-28 03:02
iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	1	$280	282	0	+282	Yes	+$2	07-30 09:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$250	128	128	+0	No	+$6	06-01 03:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$233	554	0	+554	Yes	-$233	06-16 11:45
iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	1	$215	229	0	+229	Yes	+$14	07-07 12:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	7	$210	124	124	+0	No	+$19	05-23 22:46
will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	1	$200	213	0	+213	No	+$13	07-02 07:27
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	2	$200	224	0	+224	No	+$24	07-18 01:48
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	1	$200	203	0	+203	Yes	+$3	07-06 22:13
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	3	$191	100	100	+0	No	+$2	07-10 02:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$187	104	104	+0	No	+$4	05-31 09:41
iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	1	$182	198	0	+198	Yes	+$16	07-21 22:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-30 23:30:39	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	SELL	268	100¢	$267	0x734cc5…
07-30 23:30:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	409	99¢	$406	0xeb3d33…
07-30 12:47:54	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	287	99¢	$285	0x3f4e96…
07-30 09:09:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	282	99¢	$280	0x7f39b2…
07-29 11:16:14	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x229d79…
07-28 03:02:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	No	BUY	283	99¢	$280	0x088583…
07-27 11:25:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xcbbf26…
07-27 03:25:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	145	93¢	$135	0x6c3e34…
07-27 03:24:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xb90ef3…
07-27 03:03:45	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	SELL	268	98¢	$262	0x35c3f2…
07-26 03:10:28	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 24 2026 20260714212508552	No	BUY	142	97¢	$138	0x93b96a…
07-25 11:01:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	138	97¢	$134	0x273807…
07-25 09:31:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x06cd08…
07-25 06:22:09	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xb355ed…
07-25 06:21:09	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf4793e…
07-25 06:21:09	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6d0c8d…
07-22 08:54:40	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	211	93¢	$195	0xa49579…
07-21 22:14:04	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	198	92¢	$182	0xcfd3c7…
07-21 12:41:07	Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?	Yes	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xb53beb…
07-21 12:39:40	Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?	No	SELL	44	75¢	$33	0x6cf5a5…
07-21 12:38:34	Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?	Yes	BUY	145	97¢	$140	0xd4ea79…
07-21 12:38:06	Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?	No	SELL	58	76¢	$44	0x835517…
07-21 08:21:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	No	BUY	325	95¢	$308	0x671767…
07-20 22:05:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xca41b2…
07-20 07:06:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	No	BUY	121	91¢	$110	0x3eb250…
07-19 13:12:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	No	BUY	109	89¢	$97	0xf58cd3…
07-19 13:11:33	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0xd00911…
07-18 13:14:04	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	236	98¢	$230	0x23662d…
07-18 13:08:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x37b39c…
07-18 13:08:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x0c6772…
07-18 13:08:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	176	99¢	$175	0xe05495…
07-18 06:54:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	BUY	235	96¢	$225	0x0403f5…
07-18 01:48:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa43994…
07-18 01:07:15	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	328	98¢	$320	0x294294…
07-18 01:05:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x374bf8…
07-17 23:25:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x801b34…
07-17 01:30:26	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	Yes	BUY	425	99¢	$420	0x5f7002…
07-15 15:42:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 13	No	BUY	423	95¢	$400	0xf74574…
07-15 13:07:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xf715ff…
07-15 13:06:29	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x64d2cc…
07-13 21:45:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	219	97¢	$211	0xd0bf52…
07-13 12:45:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	SELL	213	99¢	$211	0xddd09f…
07-13 01:49:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	187	96¢	$180	0x4cb200…
07-13 01:47:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0x86e566…
07-12 04:30:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x6396ad…
07-12 04:30:07	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	92	95¢	$87	0xd3af58…
07-12 00:55:13	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xaba1e7…
07-12 00:47:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb866de…
07-12 00:46:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x05987d…
07-12 00:45:23	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0xc45238…
07-12 00:15:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 11	No	BUY	213	85¢	$181	0x5dda6b…
07-11 05:47:34	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	130	94¢	$122	0x411349…
07-10 22:20:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x43d808…
07-10 22:20:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd5d01a…
07-10 22:14:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x9d6462…
07-10 03:02:28	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xe50fde…
07-10 02:23:40	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	100	97¢	$96	0x5bd0b4…
07-10 02:20:25	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x3a9207…
07-09 12:37:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	235	97¢	$229	0x62be9e…
07-08 22:02:44	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	144	96¢	$138	0x87854d…
07-08 11:31:55	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xb135fe…
07-08 11:02:07	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	247	95¢	$233	0xdfd802…
07-07 12:00:43	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	BUY	229	94¢	$215	0xbec71b…
07-06 22:13:25	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xc64cb9…
07-06 22:12:07	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	213	100¢	$213	0xc57d29…
07-04 04:17:32	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	247	75¢	$186	0x9dac48…
07-04 04:15:16	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x784f62…
07-03 21:58:49	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	388	94¢	$365	0x18008e…
07-02 07:27:50	will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xe467f6…
07-01 21:30:07	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x7fdb77…
07-01 21:28:31	Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x3c4219…
07-01 11:03:46	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x3f8907…
07-01 03:00:13	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0xfaac65…
06-30 13:40:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	408	99¢	$404	0xc254db…
06-30 13:38:35	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	405	100¢	$404	0xaf2d1a…
06-28 00:51:07	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x1e8e8f…
06-28 00:42:40	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x593ea4…
06-26 22:30:52	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x660c18…
06-25 12:04:43	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0x53efef…
06-16 11:45:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	308	1¢	$4	0x097110…
06-16 11:44:40	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	425	73¢	$310	0x8262d6…
06-06 05:35:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	246	93¢	$229	0xa462f0…
06-06 05:34:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	232	99¢	$229	0x7390da…
06-04 12:28:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	51	95¢	$49	0x228d19…
06-04 12:25:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	58	85¢	$49	0x4cbc8f…
06-01 13:46:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0xd99ff9…
06-01 13:45:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	64	65¢	$42	0xc0de8f…
06-01 03:15:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	138	93¢	$128	0x5dc99c…
06-01 03:08:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xf412bc…
05-31 09:42:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	64	46¢	$29	0x90cfdb…
05-31 09:41:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	32	91¢	$29	0x6f39d8…
05-30 01:13:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	95¢	$122	0x9f6400…
05-30 01:10:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0xcb984c…
05-30 01:10:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x46704f…
05-25 03:06:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	88	86¢	$76	0x8ee606…
05-23 22:46:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	79	96¢	$76	0x868f18…
05-23 09:52:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x104246…
05-23 09:21:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	51	95¢	$48	0xd9b58a…
05-22 13:12:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x155ff4…
05-22 11:46:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	26	89¢	$24	0xf7507d…