Intent-Fortnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$85

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 07-02 07:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

65% 60% $-24

Politics

27% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-58	$-49	94¢	$-54	$-5	06-04 12:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No		-32	$-29	96¢	$-31	$-2	05-31 09:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	2	$804	405	405	+0	open	—	06-30 13:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$447	232	232	+0	open	—	06-06 05:34
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	1	$310	425	0	+425	open	—	06-16 11:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$250	128	128	+0	open	—	06-01 03:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$233	554	0	+554	open	—	06-16 11:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	7	$210	124	124	+0	open	—	05-23 22:46
will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	07-02 07:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$164	88	88	+0	open	—	05-30 01:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$93	51	51	+0	open	—	05-23 09:21
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	06-28 00:42
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	3	$71	50	29	+21	Yes	$-19	05-07 14:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	2	$71	64	64	+0	open	—	06-01 13:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	3	$61	36	36	+0	open	—	05-30 01:10
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	3	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$2	05-09 23:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$50	56	0	+56	open	—	05-03 09:12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$49	0	58	-58	open	—	06-04 12:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$45	57	0	+57	open	—	05-03 09:02
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	1	$44	44	0	+44	open	—	07-01 11:03
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	1	$40	41	0	+41	open	—	06-28 00:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$34	46	0	+46	Yes	+$12	05-10 02:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	5	$30	87	50	+37	No	+$8	05-08 12:20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$29	0	32	-32	open	—	05-31 09:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-29 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	05-03 08:37
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of April 27 2026?	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	04-29 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-03 10:38
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	1	$9	0	36	-36	Up	$-27	05-07 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-03 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-03 12:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-03 11:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 07:27:50	will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xe467f6…
07-01 11:03:46	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x3f8907…
06-30 13:38:35	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	405	100¢	$404	0xaf2d1a…
06-28 00:51:07	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x1e8e8f…
06-28 00:42:40	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x593ea4…
06-26 22:30:52	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x660c18…
06-25 12:04:43	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0x53efef…
06-16 11:45:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	308	1¢	$4	0x097110…
06-16 11:44:40	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	425	73¢	$310	0x8262d6…
06-06 05:35:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	246	93¢	$229	0xa462f0…
06-06 05:34:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	232	99¢	$229	0x7390da…
06-04 12:28:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	51	95¢	$49	0x228d19…
06-04 12:25:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	58	85¢	$49	0x4cbc8f…
06-01 13:46:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0xd99ff9…
06-01 13:45:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	64	65¢	$42	0xc0de8f…
06-01 03:15:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	138	93¢	$128	0x5dc99c…
06-01 03:08:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xf412bc…
05-31 09:42:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	64	46¢	$29	0x90cfdb…
05-31 09:41:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	32	91¢	$29	0x6f39d8…
05-30 01:13:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	95¢	$122	0x9f6400…
05-30 01:10:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0xcb984c…
05-30 01:10:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x46704f…
05-25 03:06:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	88	86¢	$76	0x8ee606…
05-23 22:46:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	79	96¢	$76	0x868f18…
05-23 09:21:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	51	95¢	$48	0xd9b58a…
05-22 13:12:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x155ff4…
05-22 11:46:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	26	89¢	$24	0xf7507d…
05-21 11:31:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$4	0x409193…
05-21 11:27:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x575988…
05-15 13:33:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0xc62dc6…
05-11 08:09:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0xbda1e9…
05-10 02:44:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	46	74¢	$34	0x7203e8…
05-09 23:08:02	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x46a4ed…
05-08 12:53:28	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xe5a9c9…
05-08 12:20:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0x24a34c…
05-08 11:49:14	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xa565b5…
05-08 07:49:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x2516e7…
05-07 21:36:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x577f8b…
05-07 16:44:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	36	24¢	$9	0x7c4f87…
05-07 14:23:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa4b036…
05-07 14:06:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$20	0xb8d971…
05-07 13:10:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x0a0689…
05-07 12:26:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x420a16…
05-07 06:55:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0xab5a7c…
05-04 00:30:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x25c2cc…
05-03 23:09:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x446b92…
05-03 13:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x00568f…
05-03 12:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb479b1…
05-03 12:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xbd4519…
05-03 11:16:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc44e9c…
05-03 11:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4246e8…
05-03 10:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x4e23de…
05-03 10:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1a7882…
05-03 10:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xcfd848…
05-03 09:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xee111d…
05-03 09:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0xc539e1…
05-03 08:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x434356…
05-03 08:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xe96016…
05-03 08:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3f702e…
05-02 02:44:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x28600d…
04-29 04:38:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x2bd371…
04-29 04:14:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x159b3c…
04-22 00:00:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x0117f2…