First-Prison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$313

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.2%

Resolved

Trades

866

lifetime

Volume

$98.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$114

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-14 14:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

86% 50% $-25

Other

14% 0% $-288

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$8.9K	5,320	5,320	+0	open	—	05-31 14:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$5.8K	4,079	5,309	-1,231	open	—	06-14 23:27
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$4.8K	2,958	2,958	+0	open	—	05-28 17:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	9	$4.2K	3,975	6,149	-2,174	open	—	06-18 14:16
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	8	$4.0K	3,641	3,842	-201	open	—	05-26 00:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	7	$3.6K	3,414	3,614	-200	open	—	05-26 00:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	5	$3.5K	2,202	2,202	+0	open	—	06-01 04:11
iran closes its airspace by june 8	5	$3.2K	2,123	2,123	+0	open	—	06-07 21:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	15	$2.7K	6,100	2,064	+4,036	open	—	06-11 22:19
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	40	$2.7K	92,103	0	+92,103	open	—	08-14 08:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	06-07 20:10
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	6	$2.0K	2,540	0	+2,540	open	—	05-15 06:44
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	18	$1.8K	20,911	756	+20,155	open	—	08-14 08:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$1.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-01 04:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	10	$1.7K	1,482	1,482	+0	open	—	06-11 18:00
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$1.7K	1,004	1,004	+0	open	—	06-07 21:01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-07 07:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	6	$1.3K	845	845	+0	open	—	05-13 15:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	10	$1.3K	3,443	3,443	+0	open	—	06-14 23:31
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	6	$1.1K	845	845	+0	open	—	06-11 18:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	6	$1.1K	950	566	+385	open	—	05-28 19:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	2	$1.1K	0	1,190	-1,190	open	—	06-07 20:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	7	$1.1K	5,420	5,420	+0	open	—	06-15 14:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	3	$1.1K	825	658	+167	open	—	05-28 15:00
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	3	$1.1K	618	618	+0	open	—	04-12 19:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$1.0K	856	856	+0	open	—	03-01 04:21
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	3	$1.0K	911	1,011	-100	open	—	05-26 00:22
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	4	$944	950	950	+0	Yes	$-286	05-04 17:01
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	7	$921	592	592	+0	open	—	05-20 03:04
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?	7	$828	1,980	0	+1,980	open	—	05-15 06:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 14:54:40	will tsla reach 405 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	137	7¢	$10	0x49144f…
08-14 08:20:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xd8a60d…
08-14 08:20:30	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	4,696	2¢	$100	0x0894b3…
08-14 08:20:18	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,857	7¢	$200	0x529e29…
08-14 07:44:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	571	7¢	$40	0x5143b0…
08-14 07:43:30	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	3,347	2¢	$65	0xc07cfd…
08-14 07:42:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	247	10¢	$25	0x6c01e0…
08-14 07:14:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	391	17¢	$66	0x610185…
08-10 13:38:18	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	4,429	2¢	$93	0xec54cc…
08-07 16:59:00	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	4,488	2¢	$81	0x13ae56…
08-05 16:45:29	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	3,512	2¢	$63	0x926329…
08-05 15:56:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0x97d6ed…
08-05 15:56:38	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,787	2¢	$40	0xf36962…
08-05 15:56:30	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	468	2¢	$10	0x989b8b…
08-04 20:21:36	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,591	2¢	$35	0x90c39b…
08-04 20:21:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	227	6¢	$14	0x66a0fb…
08-04 20:21:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	87	14¢	$12	0x3397ad…
08-04 20:20:39	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by september 30 2026 20260709234123317	Yes	SELL	198	5¢	$10	0x30d90b…
08-04 18:05:42	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	436	2¢	$10	0x442b77…
08-04 18:05:41	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0x3df93a…
08-03 22:06:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	1,021	2¢	$22	0xfb367a…
08-03 22:06:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	227	10¢	$22	0x56fddf…
08-02 20:59:47	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe0b74b…
08-02 18:35:50	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x00b6d0…
08-02 18:34:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xf93a66…
08-02 18:34:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xd5e7e5…
08-02 18:32:51	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	10,209	3¢	$300	0x1230c4…
08-02 18:32:20	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x6cda8a…
08-02 18:32:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xd7e5ad…
08-02 18:32:05	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	2,462	3¢	$70	0x94b776…
08-02 18:31:47	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,825	3¢	$50	0x480ab4…
08-02 10:59:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,500	8¢	$120	0xd7d1e5…
08-02 10:58:48	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	3,226	3¢	$100	0xa9c64e…
08-02 10:58:47	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	3,244	3¢	$100	0x834105…
08-02 02:18:08	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	SELL	302	23¢	$70	0x18218f…
08-01 22:13:50	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	4,705	4¢	$200	0x506a63…
08-01 22:11:48	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x66f995…
08-01 22:11:29	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0xa42037…
08-01 22:11:23	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0x8550c7…
08-01 22:03:56	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x047eec…
08-01 22:02:44	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	4,890	4¢	$200	0x0c7f7e…
07-29 22:19:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	667	9¢	$60	0x080ebd…
07-29 22:19:18	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	770	3¢	$25	0x371300…
07-29 22:18:57	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	476	3¢	$15	0xacf315…
07-29 22:11:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	322	9¢	$29	0xae010c…
07-29 20:43:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x74c7f8…
07-29 20:42:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	170	6¢	$10	0x22adcc…
07-29 16:32:48	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,237	3¢	$40	0x3fde1d…
07-29 16:32:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	93	57¢	$53	0x4f44a4…
07-29 16:32:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	45	77¢	$34	0x4fe046…
07-29 10:56:02	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	938	3¢	$30	0xc64b7d…
07-29 10:55:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x95a260…
07-29 10:55:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x81bf3a…
07-28 15:53:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x2fdd17…
07-28 15:50:01	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	185	3¢	$5	0x29d23f…
07-28 10:56:07	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1,440	0¢	$3	0xc202be…
07-28 10:56:04	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$2	0x2f1efe…
07-27 20:00:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0xda9c2c…
07-27 19:59:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0x5be27f…
07-27 19:59:33	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x41efef…
07-27 19:58:43	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,758	3¢	$50	0xa9a292…
07-27 19:52:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x83d5b4…
07-25 18:33:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0xacd74b…
07-25 18:32:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	638	8¢	$50	0xbf1b25…
07-25 18:32:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	5,761	2¢	$92	0xc6b269…
07-24 08:41:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbb5dd0…
07-24 06:36:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x12fa33…
07-24 06:36:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	227	23¢	$52	0x3320e5…
07-23 18:58:51	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$23	0x03497c…
07-23 18:58:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x081a72…
07-23 18:58:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	105	48¢	$50	0xcc9299…
07-23 18:57:15	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x9ec353…
07-23 15:19:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x28d774…
07-23 13:45:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xe9c85e…
07-22 12:56:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0xe1fe79…
07-22 12:56:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x8501b7…
07-20 15:13:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$14	0x6593c9…
07-20 12:14:16	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	168	3¢	$5	0x5d9c74…
07-20 12:14:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	SELL	47	40¢	$19	0xfc1a2a…
07-18 19:37:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	106	19¢	$20	0x0201da…
07-18 19:36:03	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0xa5aa69…
07-18 19:35:40	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	862	5¢	$40	0x07a75c…
07-16 18:33:31	btc updown 5m 1784226600	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x74c996…
07-16 18:18:16	btc updown 5m 1784225700	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xf89e69…
07-16 11:57:19	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	238	17¢	$40	0xbdd62e…
07-16 11:56:35	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	571	7¢	$40	0x9e764e…
07-16 10:21:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,375	2¢	$33	0x02e198…
07-16 09:45:10	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	5,090	4¢	$210	0x115583…
07-13 19:26:37	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$18	0xe218c6…
07-13 19:26:16	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1,440	2¢	$30	0xcc87df…
07-13 19:26:01	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	558	4¢	$20	0x928685…
07-13 19:25:50	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	573	3¢	$20	0x19d698…
07-13 15:34:35	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	968	3¢	$30	0xf4310a…
07-13 15:23:28	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by september 30 2026 20260709234123317	Yes	BUY	198	10¢	$20	0x7f57c2…
07-13 15:18:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	247	20¢	$50	0x4d0367…
07-11 22:48:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x6029ba…
07-11 22:48:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x488146…
07-11 22:48:29	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x27b261…
07-11 22:45:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x286f71…
07-11 22:45:25	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	1,507	3¢	$50	0x59faa2…