First-Prison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.02K

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

340

Trades

1,248

lifetime

Volume

$128.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

$4.80K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-29 05:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Politics

78% 38% +$7,768

Other

19% 9% -$8,037

Sports

3% 7% -$832

Crypto

0% 29% -$107

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+92,213	$6,791	4¢	$4.1K	-$2,641	10-29 05:42
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,209	-$37	46¢	$550	+$587	10-29 05:42
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-2,897	-$111	2¢	$-65	+$46	05-24 09:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+1,000	$50	4¢	$35	-$15	10-28 15:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$8.9K	5,320	5,320	+0	No	+$731	05-31 14:03
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	45	$8.5K	110,312	18,099	+92,213	open	—	10-29 05:42
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$6.6K	5,309	5,309	+0	Yes	+$164	06-14 23:27
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$4.8K	2,958	2,958	+0	No	-$185	05-28 17:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	12	$4.7K	6,165	6,165	+0	Yes	+$133	06-18 14:16
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	36	$4.1K	7,195	7,195	+0	No	-$229	06-20 18:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	10	$4.1K	3,842	3,842	+0	No	+$3,328	05-26 00:22
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	62	$3.8K	137,278	125,211	+12,067	No	-$2,861	09-28 19:45
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	9	$3.6K	3,614	3,614	+0	No	+$3,343	05-26 00:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	5	$3.5K	2,202	2,202	+0	No	+$306	06-01 04:11
iran closes its airspace by june 8	5	$3.2K	2,123	2,123	+0	Yes	+$805	06-07 21:44
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	16	$2.9K	5,067	3,859	+1,209	open	—	10-29 05:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	15	$2.7K	6,100	2,064	+4,036	Yes	-$1,377	06-11 22:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,399	1,399	+0	Yes	+$287	06-07 20:10
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	6	$2.0K	2,540	0	+2,540	Yes	-$2,000	05-15 06:44
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$2.0K	2,733	2,649	+83	No	+$34	06-03 15:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$1.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$1,196	03-01 04:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	10	$1.7K	1,482	1,482	+0	Yes	-$155	06-11 18:00
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$1.7K	1,004	1,004	+0	Yes	+$244	06-07 21:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	3	$1.6K	1,190	1,190	+0	No	+$612	06-07 20:25
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$389	06-07 07:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	3	$1.5K	936	936	+0	No	+$304	06-02 07:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	2	$1.4K	800	800	+0	No	+$170	06-02 07:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	6	$1.3K	845	845	+0	No	+$326	05-13 15:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	10	$1.3K	3,443	3,443	+0	Yes	-$668	06-14 23:31
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	6	$1.1K	845	845	+0	Yes	-$52	06-11 18:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	6	$1.1K	950	566	+385	No	+$117	05-28 19:33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	7	$1.1K	5,420	5,420	+0	No	-$641	06-15 14:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	3	$1.1K	825	658	+167	No	+$46	05-28 15:00
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	3	$1.1K	618	618	+0	Yes	+$167	04-12 19:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 05:42:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0xb462e4…
10-29 05:42:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	403	44¢	$177	0xf7ff64…
10-28 17:37:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,667	6¢	$100	0xc0bf1b…
10-28 15:40:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xe6ff3d…
10-28 13:43:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	994	1¢	$7	0xf97544…
10-28 13:28:56	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5,000	6¢	$300	0x261462…
10-28 13:28:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	596	46¢	$274	0xc4e8d3…
10-28 10:49:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	736	44¢	$324	0x41c0cc…
10-27 20:11:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	162	8¢	$13	0xb4a86b…
10-27 20:11:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	26	50¢	$13	0xb9fd30…
10-27 20:01:11	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x901bd3…
10-27 20:00:54	Will RZP-Zehut win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$2	0x594069…
10-27 18:58:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x28d7e6…
10-27 16:42:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,292	24¢	$310	0x7ed402…
10-27 16:42:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5,333	6¢	$320	0x91e9b3…
10-26 22:23:09	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0xe5b193…
10-26 22:22:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	233	30¢	$70	0x9f8b78…
10-26 22:22:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	213	16¢	$35	0x10bb95…
10-26 22:22:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	154	9¢	$14	0x224781…
10-26 22:21:50	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	800	3¢	$26	0x8eac9b…
10-26 10:54:06	Will RZP-Zehut win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	49	15¢	$7	0xbd99f7…
10-26 10:53:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	430	0¢	$2	0x79ccf7…
10-26 10:53:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,636	0¢	$5	0xaef8d5…
10-24 17:22:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	169	83¢	$140	0xd63210…
10-24 17:21:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	149	80¢	$120	0x54fa7c…
10-23 14:40:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	430	9¢	$40	0x576d1d…
10-23 14:39:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	322	1¢	$5	0xcc474f…
10-22 21:00:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	800	6¢	$48	0x4a2b21…
10-22 20:59:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	307	16¢	$48	0x0827f6…
10-21 19:30:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0xcaea34…
10-21 19:29:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x3ebdec…
10-21 19:28:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	149	33¢	$50	0x8b61a7…
10-21 18:51:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x630b3c…
10-20 12:52:59	Will RZP-Zehut win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xa59d92…
10-20 12:49:38	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	497	10¢	$50	0x2d14e2…
10-20 12:49:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0x36ca3f…
10-20 12:48:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12,011	4¢	$480	0xa50d6c…
10-15 20:49:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	212	3¢	$7	0xb0a822…
10-15 20:49:35	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0x27a2c6…
10-15 20:48:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0xb30038…
10-15 20:48:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	SELL	592	0¢	$3	0xf99f38…
10-14 16:20:07	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 22	No	BUY	322	9¢	$29	0x484829…
10-14 16:19:49	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 17	No	BUY	1,351	4¢	$50	0x621f5b…
10-14 16:19:25	will the iranian regime fall by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	480	17¢	$80	0x473d82…
10-12 16:49:51	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	160	12¢	$20	0x63ffce…
10-10 20:59:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0x862eb3…
10-10 20:57:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x968212…
10-10 20:57:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	417	5¢	$20	0x7e718e…
10-09 09:37:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0xb273f4…
10-08 06:15:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x48476a…
10-08 05:55:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x5cb1e9…
10-08 05:54:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30,000	6¢	$1,800	0x946894…
10-08 05:54:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,228	1¢	$40	0x2959f9…
10-02 11:22:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x9914bd…
10-02 11:22:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8,571	7¢	$600	0xb13952…
10-02 11:21:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,839	33¢	$607	0x5bac74…
10-01 10:43:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	162	0¢	$0	0xf78596…
09-29 21:47:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12,886	7¢	$902	0xfd2a91…
09-28 19:45:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	857	3¢	$30	0xdf7f30…
09-28 19:45:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	11,594	0¢	$12	0xde2def…
09-28 19:44:29	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0xd82cba…
09-28 13:28:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$33	0x474a6f…
09-27 19:02:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0xa81b83…
09-27 18:58:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0xf2fe3f…
09-27 08:49:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0x8e41ab…
09-27 08:49:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	23,661	0¢	$24	0xa99694…
09-24 18:45:57	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xf11f53…
09-24 18:41:08	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	386	7¢	$27	0x43b162…
09-24 18:39:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,562	0¢	$7	0xc073f6…
09-23 22:45:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	13,669	0¢	$34	0x8f1b08…
09-19 20:57:03	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	414	7¢	$29	0x2aa543…
09-19 20:56:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	9,674	0¢	$29	0x58cc9c…
09-17 17:09:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0xd534e8…
09-17 17:09:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5,201	0¢	$19	0xa97652…
09-17 12:33:00	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,571	7¢	$110	0x3126c4…
09-17 12:32:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	24,768	0¢	$101	0xa4b184…
09-15 13:36:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,812	8¢	$225	0x4e6bc7…
09-15 13:36:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	SELL	36,643	1¢	$239	0xe8d99b…
09-13 18:34:57	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,300	8¢	$104	0x106a30…
09-13 18:34:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	954	11¢	$105	0xd76db0…
09-10 15:03:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xdf2b58…
09-10 08:12:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0xa406c7…
09-08 11:40:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,000	1¢	$30	0xdfd978…
09-08 11:40:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,143	7¢	$150	0x3fb81e…
09-08 11:39:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	654	13¢	$85	0xf9f142…
09-03 10:53:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0xf00530…
09-02 18:20:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,702	1¢	$35	0x239d64…
09-02 10:29:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x0099ff…
09-02 10:29:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x1c6860…
09-02 10:28:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5,769	1¢	$75	0x9d8ee6…
09-02 10:28:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,041	1¢	$25	0x80f668…
09-01 19:02:19	Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xcebfed…
09-01 09:54:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,667	30¢	$500	0xe550f6…
08-31 14:52:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7,143	7¢	$500	0x44956c…
08-31 04:02:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	SELL	582	1¢	$8	0x7dff4c…
08-30 21:06:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0x58713a…
08-30 21:03:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	SELL	379	2¢	$6	0xdce068…
08-30 21:02:58	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 in August?	Yes	SELL	137	0¢	$0	0xe0ca51…
08-30 20:57:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	BUY	582	3¢	$20	0x6e8676…
08-27 08:21:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,933	1¢	$28	0xf4c9a2…