Realized P&L
+$93.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$47.6K
Hit rate
82.9%
Resolved
113
Trades
5,032
lifetime
Volume
$3.43M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$682
Open exposure
$302.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 10-26 17:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 51 days
Categories
Other
58% 55% +$54,635
Politics
34% 63% +$45,179
Tech
5% 60% -$72
Sports
3% 60% -$6,111
Crypto
0% 0% -$499
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 193 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -70,000 -$65,655 98¢ $-68285 -$2,630 06-13 12:43
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +60,625 $54,563 90¢ $54.9K +$303 10-05 14:21
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922 Yes +55,888 $7,194 68¢ $38.0K +$30,810 10-14 21:24
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +45,665 $3,746 82¢ $37.4K +$33,700 10-14 16:54
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +94,028 $44,544 39¢ $36.7K -$7,873 10-05 05:25
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +50,000 $24,000 45¢ $22.7K -$1,250 10-15 23:18
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +24,768 $7,416 33¢ $8.3K +$869 07-28 16:33
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +8,253 $7,225 98¢ $8.1K +$867 10-09 03:50
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +6,145 $5,210 97¢ $6.0K +$751 10-16 19:10
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +9,137 $4,014 55¢ $5.0K +$965 10-12 10:18
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +52,448 $7,054 6¢ $3.4K -$3,645 10-26 17:48
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +7,071 $3,406 36¢ $2.5K -$896 07-27 16:42
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes +13,679 $185 18¢ $2.4K +$2,209 08-21 16:00
will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31 Yes +54,008 $3,723 4¢ $2.3K -$1,374 08-19 14:44
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No -1,354 -$1,323 97¢ $-1318 +$5 10-08 05:40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes +15,400 $5,684 7¢ $1.1K -$4,606 07-27 21:48
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes +15,477 -$1,392 6¢ $929 +$2,321 09-09 20:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +13,654 $2,282 6¢ $888 -$1,394 09-21 16:39
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +11,600 $1,400 6¢ $638 -$762 09-29 11:43
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31 Yes +11,030 $1,111 5¢ $579 -$532 08-21 14:54
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +2,938 $339 7¢ $207 -$131 06-10 15:40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes +3,230 -$485 5¢ $157 +$641 09-03 20:42
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +4,605 $732 2¢ $94 -$638 09-06 22:13
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +2,628 $657 3¢ $91 -$566 06-08 21:25
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +80 $60 99¢ $79 +$19 10-01 21:37
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +395 -$970 14¢ $53 +$1,023 06-10 18:30
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +1,916 $611 2¢ $37 -$573 05-05 14:45
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,527 $29 1¢ $17 -$12 09-13 12:37
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes +824 $6 1¢ $7 +$1 05-20 16:54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +808 $40 0¢ $3 -$37 05-20 16:40