Separate-Posterior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$7.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 08-16 13:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

67% 100% +$11

Other

28% 50% +$8

Crypto

4% 100% +$9

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$215	134	134	+0	open	—	06-16 10:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$193	203	203	+0	open	—	04-21 13:55
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$182	190	190	+0	open	—	06-14 18:43
iran closes its airspace by june 8	5	$169	115	115	+0	open	—	06-08 02:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$165	123	123	+0	open	—	04-07 23:02
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$134	161	161	+0	open	—	04-15 12:59
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	7	$131	178	178	+0	open	—	07-14 09:54
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	4	$124	70	70	+0	open	—	08-15 22:20
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	6	$123	99	135	-35	open	—	08-04 15:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	4	$120	120	120	+0	open	—	04-08 23:05
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	6	$107	114	114	+0	open	—	07-27 15:58
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	5	$107	86	86	+0	open	—	07-29 13:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$103	49	73	-24	open	—	05-30 15:52
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	6	$97	109	109	+0	open	—	04-12 13:07
will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	5	$95	153	153	+0	open	—	06-14 21:28
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$86	54	54	+0	open	—	06-14 12:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$82	108	108	+0	open	—	06-20 12:20
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	3	$81	33	96	-63	open	—	08-07 12:53
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$80	72	72	+0	open	—	05-21 14:56
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	2	$79	50	50	+0	open	—	03-22 23:25
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	4	$77	50	50	+0	open	—	06-14 21:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$69	57	57	+0	open	—	05-16 23:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$67	45	45	+0	open	—	04-22 01:19
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$67	46	46	+0	open	—	03-20 16:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$66	36	36	+0	open	—	04-01 14:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$66	48	48	+0	open	—	04-07 23:02
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	2	$65	38	38	+0	open	—	07-27 15:58
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$65	37	37	+0	open	—	04-27 08:38
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$64	38	38	+0	open	—	04-28 22:09
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	4	$64	65	64	+0	open	—	04-07 22:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 13:16:45	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x532975…
08-16 13:15:00	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x4be110…
08-15 22:20:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0xf8a4a2…
08-14 16:18:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xd262f6…
08-14 16:18:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x3b10ff…
08-14 16:14:04	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xecd54e…
08-14 16:12:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	27	92¢	$25	0x3a1c87…
08-14 16:12:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf7cb43…
08-12 09:47:39	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x3bec04…
08-12 09:46:30	will spcx reach 140 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x3607b6…
08-07 12:59:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x78a5e9…
08-07 12:53:06	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	33	69¢	$23	0x6d62da…
08-07 12:52:37	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes	SELL	31	57¢	$18	0x77ab72…
08-05 08:18:39	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x171088…
08-05 08:15:36	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x7fb662…
08-04 15:18:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x060c45…
08-04 15:16:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	67	27¢	$18	0xb96d18…
08-03 16:39:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x252ae6…
08-02 05:55:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0x5b1982…
08-02 05:54:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	37	32¢	$12	0xbd9284…
08-01 22:44:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xb2f634…
08-01 09:08:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	15	55¢	$8	0xbc1cd9…
07-31 14:38:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0x8cbc68…
07-31 14:36:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x41d04b…
07-30 16:20:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xb2017b…
07-30 16:19:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0xa69892…
07-29 13:39:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	40	89¢	$35	0x7ebfcb…
07-27 21:48:01	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x4ed639…
07-27 21:45:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	32	54¢	$17	0xc41029…
07-27 19:37:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xd43469…
07-27 17:38:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x5d4125…
07-27 17:38:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	46	55¢	$26	0xb2d282…
07-27 17:36:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x74937e…
07-27 15:58:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x99f0ea…
07-27 15:58:51	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x73eea5…
07-27 15:58:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	SELL	38	93¢	$35	0xa263ef…
07-27 15:58:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x7ce348…
07-27 15:57:42	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	31	11¢	$3	0x1d514e…
07-27 12:45:24	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x21e2b9…
07-27 12:43:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x584711…
07-27 12:43:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x4d576a…
07-27 10:03:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x82ddd7…
07-27 10:03:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	36	55¢	$20	0x3f9898…
07-27 10:02:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x755ff5…
07-27 06:37:45	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x053cc2…
07-25 09:46:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x928812…
07-25 09:46:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xbef2ac…
07-25 09:44:37	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x3ff219…
07-25 08:53:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xa60220…
07-25 08:51:00	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	79	18¢	$14	0xd2253f…
07-24 09:17:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0xefe37b…
07-24 09:11:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x4c8b78…
07-24 09:03:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0xbe44f3…
07-24 09:01:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0x184c33…
07-24 09:01:42	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0x1da9bc…
07-24 09:00:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0xc492af…
07-23 23:27:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x280201…
07-23 23:19:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x2d670a…
07-23 23:18:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x9e6238…
07-20 00:09:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0xe57f9e…
07-20 00:05:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0xe7c67a…
07-18 23:29:45	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xfb1af6…
07-18 23:28:12	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	25	91¢	$22	0x43933a…
07-17 00:48:14	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x462e18…
07-16 14:00:25	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x2b963a…
07-14 10:00:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x9c662e…
07-14 09:56:25	will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x5f4254…
07-14 09:54:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x2ce330…
07-08 21:52:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x5b9a98…
07-08 21:46:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x5163b6…
07-08 21:45:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	138	21¢	$28	0x6d3013…
07-08 21:41:11	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	78	25¢	$20	0x4ce1a5…
07-08 13:34:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x237edf…
07-08 13:31:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x2889f1…
07-08 13:16:14	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x3fdbce…
07-04 13:06:23	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x374855…
07-04 13:05:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x67739b…
07-02 09:00:11	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x436058…
06-30 16:48:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x01cfe9…
06-29 15:12:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xa87fa4…
06-26 20:44:02	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	255	3¢	$7	0x06eb7e…
06-26 17:40:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	117	14¢	$17	0xf00369…
06-26 17:40:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	138	14¢	$20	0x368ca9…
06-26 17:24:10	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	SELL	26	94¢	$25	0x84ef41…
06-25 20:24:16	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xb355bb…
06-21 00:44:35	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x0c27b2…
06-21 00:39:47	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	24	83¢	$20	0x4233d3…
06-21 00:38:35	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0x3e219d…
06-20 17:04:05	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd8bc3d…
06-20 15:35:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x64aa88…
06-20 15:21:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	29	85¢	$24	0x35eb0f…
06-20 15:21:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0xcd57f9…
06-20 15:20:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x8278c5…
06-20 12:20:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	81	4¢	$3	0x46c618…
06-19 13:06:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x752901…
06-19 13:06:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xcb693f…
06-18 16:27:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x3788d0…
06-17 12:05:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xafbc74…
06-16 17:15:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xe6707f…
06-16 17:14:34	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x8716db…