Crowded-Shrine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,816

lifetime

Volume

$62.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 08-02 07:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

71% 67% $-13

Other

26% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	46	$4.4K	3,429	2,577	+852	open	—	06-16 05:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	66	$3.0K	2,613	2,130	+483	open	—	08-02 07:10
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	59	$2.9K	2,435	1,773	+662	open	—	03-28 14:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	26	$2.7K	1,544	1,544	+0	open	—	06-17 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	34	$2.3K	1,360	1,670	-310	open	—	06-15 05:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	26	$2.1K	1,187	1,187	+0	open	—	06-16 15:46
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	23	$1.6K	931	901	+30	open	—	05-12 10:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	30	$1.5K	1,064	1,096	-32	open	—	04-05 07:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	64	$1.3K	1,444	2,073	-630	open	—	07-07 02:26
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	63	$1.3K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	04-08 00:04
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	39	$1.3K	712	856	-144	open	—	06-18 20:48
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	57	$1.2K	741	751	-11	open	—	07-27 13:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	15	$1.2K	773	841	-69	open	—	06-19 14:37
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	24	$1.1K	610	610	+0	open	—	04-07 12:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	11	$1.1K	1,792	1,792	+0	open	—	06-16 07:07
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	55	$1.0K	1,548	2,626	-1,078	open	—	07-21 15:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	14	$924	1,232	359	+873	open	—	04-08 15:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	29	$913	1,463	1,463	+0	open	—	03-01 07:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	40	$906	599	599	+0	open	—	06-20 03:07
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	17	$903	500	500	+0	open	—	05-16 00:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$856	503	503	+0	open	—	03-25 14:51
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	31	$781	685	685	+0	open	—	03-30 07:05
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	31	$730	721	721	+0	open	—	04-08 00:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$710	482	387	+95	open	—	05-27 11:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	9	$680	541	541	-0	open	—	06-14 23:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	12	$677	312	486	-174	open	—	06-14 23:28
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	34	$601	401	401	+0	open	—	06-25 08:07
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	4	$600	332	332	+0	open	—	06-19 15:42
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	41	$587	327	327	+0	open	—	06-20 13:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	11	$582	528	179	+349	open	—	04-01 00:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 13:30:09	btc updown 5m 1785677100	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdb535f…
08-02 13:21:02	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x676e05…
08-02 13:14:45	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x6f1bdb…
08-02 07:10:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	517	58¢	$300	0xc555fe…
08-02 07:09:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	757	57¢	$432	0x71bd36…
08-02 03:18:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	56¢	$9	0xb9b581…
08-02 02:21:56	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe6ce0e…
08-01 15:14:18	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x03cc67…
08-01 15:14:14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x17977e…
08-01 13:22:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xc76ead…
08-01 05:37:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe99a3c…
07-31 10:56:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xef8ed9…
07-31 03:36:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x82375d…
07-30 15:57:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x1f7b0d…
07-30 06:26:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x3ac921…
07-30 02:34:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xe20afe…
07-30 02:22:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	370	54¢	$200	0xfb59a8…
07-29 23:04:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x6da455…
07-28 16:17:14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x84e260…
07-28 15:17:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x16f53e…
07-28 15:17:19	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4ee934…
07-28 13:49:35	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6d4c61…
07-28 13:49:26	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x24d770…
07-28 13:01:16	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb03cf3…
07-28 13:01:10	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2aec99…
07-28 05:32:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x547245…
07-28 05:32:03	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x1000ff…
07-28 05:31:55	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x9fd2d7…
07-28 02:53:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	57	53¢	$30	0xb5763f…
07-28 01:52:34	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x5e441b…
07-28 01:52:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x87a586…
07-27 15:10:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	46	44¢	$20	0x9ba44e…
07-27 15:03:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xca5cd6…
07-27 13:06:54	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	121	81¢	$97	0x0070fd…
07-27 01:07:30	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	121	79¢	$95	0xfbf717…
07-25 07:45:40	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xedb937…
07-25 07:39:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	45	71¢	$32	0xa6541d…
07-24 00:59:46	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf1ed8c…
07-23 15:58:46	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc73761…
07-23 15:04:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	87	70¢	$61	0x7e274b…
07-23 08:30:24	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x18e30f…
07-22 15:43:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x125f62…
07-22 15:42:40	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xbec39b…
07-22 15:42:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	194	51¢	$99	0xd13091…
07-22 15:12:18	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb843b9…
07-22 15:10:06	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xd76f69…
07-22 15:09:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xaac7d0…
07-22 15:09:18	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb0d8b5…
07-22 15:07:27	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x89f291…
07-22 15:06:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0x01d074…
07-22 15:04:15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x31b754…
07-22 15:02:15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc91752…
07-22 14:45:55	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb86248…
07-22 14:29:13	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x97a603…
07-22 14:28:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	59	52¢	$31	0xcf12ce…
07-22 14:25:00	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x79afee…
07-22 14:14:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf7729c…
07-22 14:13:25	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	196	83¢	$162	0xa9edf3…
07-22 14:04:54	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe35373…
07-22 14:04:33	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xbd6905…
07-22 14:03:24	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x30b4ef…
07-22 12:11:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	53¢	$9	0xbd61bf…
07-22 12:11:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	53¢	$10	0x939dfc…
07-22 02:11:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	53¢	$31	0x68fcb5…
07-22 02:09:55	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x37d920…
07-22 01:29:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcd3f1a…
07-22 01:28:06	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	433	86¢	$374	0x149c09…
07-22 01:27:12	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe0fb2e…
07-21 23:41:34	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x8211bc…
07-21 23:41:25	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x9b164a…
07-21 23:40:42	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x62bf2a…
07-21 15:35:49	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x60b71a…
07-21 15:33:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0x44b0d7…
07-21 15:21:36	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd870ed…
07-21 15:20:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	86	21¢	$18	0x46ad71…
07-21 15:12:58	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x37a493…
07-21 14:42:13	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf4075d…
07-21 14:40:09	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	87	100¢	$87	0x4940e9…
07-21 14:39:21	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x40d7dc…
07-21 14:23:34	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7bc51e…
07-21 14:23:30	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x716efb…
07-21 14:22:25	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xfbd502…
07-21 14:16:04	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x78239c…
07-21 14:14:58	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x925d25…
07-21 14:14:33	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1030cc…
07-21 14:12:57	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xaa8a10…
07-21 14:12:30	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x4060ee…
07-21 14:12:07	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x390003…
07-21 10:30:16	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x46c57e…
07-21 08:06:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf79509…
07-20 16:31:48	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4c996d…
07-20 16:30:39	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xda8a95…
07-20 16:29:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3e5730…
07-20 11:00:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	42	49¢	$20	0x2c7226…
07-19 15:55:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf8dfe0…
07-19 15:45:49	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	73	84¢	$62	0x4dcfc3…
07-18 15:40:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x54cb3d…
07-18 15:38:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x63d831…
07-18 11:53:51	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x8aade7…
07-18 11:28:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xd6d3e8…