Crowded-Shrine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,893

lifetime

Volume

$62.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 08-22 08:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

70% 67% $-13

Other

27% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	46	$4.4K	3,429	2,577	+852	open	—	06-16 05:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	118	$3.4K	3,198	2,327	+871	open	—	08-22 04:39
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	59	$2.9K	2,435	1,773	+662	open	—	03-28 14:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	26	$2.7K	1,544	1,544	+0	open	—	06-17 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	34	$2.3K	1,360	1,670	-310	open	—	06-15 05:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	26	$2.1K	1,187	1,187	+0	open	—	06-16 15:46
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	23	$1.6K	931	901	+30	open	—	05-12 10:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	30	$1.5K	1,064	1,096	-32	open	—	04-05 07:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	64	$1.3K	1,444	2,073	-630	open	—	07-07 02:26
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	63	$1.3K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	04-08 00:04
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	39	$1.3K	712	856	-144	open	—	06-18 20:48
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	57	$1.2K	741	751	-11	open	—	07-27 13:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	15	$1.2K	773	841	-69	open	—	06-19 14:37
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	24	$1.1K	610	610	+0	open	—	04-07 12:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	11	$1.1K	1,792	1,792	+0	open	—	06-16 07:07
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	55	$1.0K	1,548	2,626	-1,078	open	—	07-21 15:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	14	$924	1,232	359	+873	open	—	04-08 15:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	29	$913	1,463	1,463	+0	open	—	03-01 07:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	40	$906	599	599	+0	open	—	06-20 03:07
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	17	$903	500	500	+0	open	—	05-16 00:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$856	503	503	+0	open	—	03-25 14:51
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	31	$781	685	685	+0	open	—	03-30 07:05
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	31	$730	721	721	+0	open	—	04-08 00:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$710	482	387	+95	open	—	05-27 11:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	9	$680	541	541	-0	open	—	06-14 23:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	12	$677	312	486	-174	open	—	06-14 23:28
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	80	$610	1,056	108	+948	open	—	08-22 08:29
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	34	$601	401	401	+0	open	—	06-25 08:07
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	4	$600	332	332	+0	open	—	06-19 15:42
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	41	$587	327	327	+0	open	—	06-20 13:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 08:29:27	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9cb107…
08-22 04:39:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6423e2…
08-22 03:08:22	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x022518…
08-21 16:31:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf2cf67…
08-21 15:39:49	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb197d2…
08-21 14:28:54	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe58116…
08-21 04:29:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x99e092…
08-20 14:31:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x3852c2…
08-20 14:25:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xabc5e1…
08-20 11:51:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5fe315…
08-20 09:03:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xeef17f…
08-20 04:40:54	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2a0368…
08-19 12:58:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x550d49…
08-19 07:16:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xf15fdc…
08-18 15:05:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x960c9b…
08-18 14:50:07	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x618b54…
08-18 10:36:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x2f04c0…
08-18 03:33:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xc592ec…
08-18 03:33:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa41033…
08-18 00:59:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x4a07e1…
08-18 00:58:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd22ebd…
08-17 21:15:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xf6ffab…
08-17 12:56:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe9b382…
08-17 05:39:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xfe0a28…
08-17 01:59:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x69d51b…
08-16 14:21:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x031f31…
08-16 05:24:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa66a38…
08-16 05:23:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe3d43e…
08-15 14:06:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0c32e7…
08-15 06:31:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb793a7…
08-14 09:30:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x6516cb…
08-14 09:29:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd4d8bf…
08-14 09:29:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb946a6…
08-14 00:58:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x53d74e…
08-13 11:02:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xbb6444…
08-12 14:47:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3fb3a0…
08-12 14:47:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	Yes	BUY	98	31¢	$30	0xeddd62…
08-12 12:42:40	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbc40e6…
08-12 12:42:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0x6e8bf4…
08-12 12:39:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf47c2f…
08-12 09:39:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xd6f171…
08-12 09:39:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x332573…
08-12 05:05:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x2f1899…
08-12 05:04:58	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x8b1bd8…
08-11 14:54:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x5691d9…
08-11 13:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x7c5568…
08-11 09:21:18	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xae6552…
08-11 09:20:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x92fd35…
08-11 04:12:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x448f42…
08-11 04:12:00	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xf92554…
08-10 16:46:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	49	60¢	$29	0xf4f701…
08-10 16:45:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x2e2145…
08-10 14:26:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb2986c…
08-10 14:05:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x810272…
08-10 14:05:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xcb6838…
08-10 14:01:06	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x543077…
08-10 12:58:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe2d2ff…
08-10 08:21:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x421695…
08-10 08:21:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9fb099…
08-10 00:27:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x82354f…
08-08 19:16:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0832fb…
08-08 15:17:42	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x16a3b5…
08-08 14:54:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x77f9ab…
08-07 13:15:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x69c823…
08-07 12:55:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xa67971…
08-07 07:23:19	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc2e244…
08-06 21:59:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	103	59¢	$61	0x470ff7…
08-05 16:01:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	61¢	$8	0xa89b9a…
08-05 16:00:41	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	50	53¢	$27	0x3f514d…
08-05 10:24:21	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x6c2439…
08-04 15:07:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	61¢	$8	0x58fe39…
08-04 14:34:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x3017c2…
08-04 06:17:41	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x6b5b7d…
08-04 06:17:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	52	58¢	$30	0xf09940…
08-02 13:30:09	btc updown 5m 1785677100	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdb535f…
08-02 13:21:02	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x676e05…
08-02 13:14:45	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x6f1bdb…
08-02 07:10:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	517	58¢	$300	0xc555fe…
08-02 07:09:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	757	57¢	$432	0x71bd36…
08-02 03:18:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	56¢	$9	0xb9b581…
08-02 02:21:56	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe6ce0e…
08-01 15:14:18	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x03cc67…
08-01 15:14:14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x17977e…
08-01 13:22:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xc76ead…
08-01 05:37:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe99a3c…
07-31 10:56:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xef8ed9…
07-31 03:36:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x82375d…
07-30 15:57:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x1f7b0d…
07-30 06:26:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x3ac921…
07-30 02:34:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xe20afe…
07-30 02:22:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	370	54¢	$200	0xfb59a8…
07-29 23:04:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x6da455…
07-28 16:17:14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x84e260…
07-28 15:17:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x16f53e…
07-28 15:17:19	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4ee934…
07-28 13:49:35	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6d4c61…
07-28 13:49:26	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x24d770…
07-28 13:01:16	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb03cf3…
07-28 13:01:10	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2aec99…
07-28 05:32:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x547245…