Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$101

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

43.7%

Resolved

106

Trades

632

lifetime

Volume

$4.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$126

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-31 18:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

79% 30% -$98

Politics

11% 25% -$6

Tech

9% 75% +$3

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 105 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-70	-$65	99¢	$-69	-$4	05-23 21:54
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	+40	$37	94¢	$37	+$0	10-28 01:47
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+20	$19	99¢	$20	+$1	10-26 19:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	2	$138	128	128	+0	Yes	+$38	06-24 20:04
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	11	$138	120	91	+29	No	+$2	10-27 14:49
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	5	$116	120	100	+20	Yes	+$2	10-30 01:08
Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	7	$112	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	10-29 02:25
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	12	$111	188	188	+0	Yes	-$3	10-25 21:01
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	22	$92	143	143	+0	No	$0	10-25 21:47
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	9	$88	120	120	+0	No	+$5	10-26 08:23
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	3	$77	50	50	+0	open	—	10-24 17:42
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	4	$71	40	40	+0	No	-$1	10-29 01:30
Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	4	$67	60	60	+0	Yes	-$3	10-26 08:26
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	6	$65	80	80	+0	Yes	-$10	10-28 20:08
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	1	$65	0	70	-70	open	—	05-23 21:54
Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?	11	$65	78	48	+30	open	—	10-28 09:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	3	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	10-25 21:56
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	5	$64	60	60	+0	open	—	10-30 10:44
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	5	$61	60	60	+0	open	—	10-31 17:10
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	4	$61	300	0	+300	Argentina	-$61	07-12 02:07
Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	6	$60	60	60	+0	open	—	10-30 17:22
Will "This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out)" from The Debut win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	10-26 07:15
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	6	$56	80	80	+0	open	—	10-29 07:26
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	7	$54	80	80	+0	open	—	10-30 09:20
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	4	$52	200	0	+200	No	-$52	07-04 20:38
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	1	$51	100	0	+100	Yes	+$49	06-28 15:10
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	8	$51	122	122	+0	No	-$6	10-26 01:52
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	8	$51	52	52	+0	open	—	10-29 14:26
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	3	$50	100	100	+0	open	—	10-25 19:49
Tusk out by December 31?	9	$49	74	60	+14	open	—	10-31 02:15
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	9	$45	87	87	+0	open	—	10-28 11:34
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	10	$45	80	80	+1	Yes	-$7	10-28 17:41
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	5	$44	60	60	+0	open	—	10-28 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 18:18:40	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x2e4d9c…
10-31 17:10:25	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	40	46¢	$18	0x4ad246…
10-31 13:06:27	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xfb53e1…
10-31 12:17:10	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xd9b9b9…
10-31 12:16:58	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe8f0f8…
10-31 11:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0x2b57e6…
10-31 10:04:46	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x7a37bd…
10-31 09:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xcb9772…
10-31 09:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0x721345…
10-31 09:39:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x1e16f1…
10-31 09:21:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	25	35¢	$9	0x3507bb…
10-31 08:30:36	Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xa6d7c3…
10-31 07:54:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x169165…
10-31 07:51:57	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	38	37¢	$14	0xf52392…
10-31 07:32:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	21	29¢	$6	0xdbc99c…
10-31 07:32:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xb7f59d…
10-31 07:32:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	19	29¢	$6	0x4fa600…
10-31 07:30:57	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x29f60a…
10-31 07:29:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x93a25c…
10-31 07:28:48	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x4345a9…
10-31 07:28:24	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x90e2d7…
10-31 07:23:13	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x082cc1…
10-31 06:44:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xc680a9…
10-31 06:43:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x551a7a…
10-31 06:29:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xe0971e…
10-31 05:07:30	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2f14ac…
10-31 04:55:10	will trump speak to friedrich merz by november 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x391e13…
10-31 04:52:48	will trump speak to friedrich merz by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x728628…
10-31 04:28:22	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by November 30?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x76fedf…
10-31 03:30:10	republican house odds hit 8 by november 1	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x47bac5…
10-31 02:36:37	will trump speak to pope leo xiv by november 30 2026	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xb6b029…
10-31 02:33:52	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x11c25b…
10-31 02:15:28	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xeb5a7a…
10-31 02:15:28	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x041cb9…
10-31 01:09:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x72677e…
10-31 01:09:33	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x4f8493…
10-31 01:04:48	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xef0559…
10-31 00:57:54	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x36547e…
10-30 23:48:31	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xc4a0ea…
10-30 23:46:46	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xf576e0…
10-30 23:25:36	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x2db89d…
10-30 23:24:39	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x54cd98…
10-30 23:24:22	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x748930…
10-30 23:07:12	Tusk out by December 31?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xd1adc8…
10-30 23:00:36	Tusk out by December 31?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x5b8e11…
10-30 22:06:06	will perena launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe2ef7c…
10-30 20:38:45	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xdea1fc…
10-30 20:28:07	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xfe7cb5…
10-30 20:23:16	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x838419…
10-30 19:53:57	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc1af52…
10-30 17:53:24	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x914096…
10-30 17:22:00	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	SELL	28	61¢	$17	0x4b245b…
10-30 16:28:03	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xf7b6d2…
10-30 16:16:16	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0x70ab19…
10-30 16:16:16	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x5af36a…
10-30 15:57:12	will any country leave nato by december 31 2027	No	BUY	19	87¢	$17	0x27092f…
10-30 15:00:51	Will the next Israeli government hold between 64 and 66 seats?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x21f609…
10-30 14:14:52	Will the next Israeli government hold between 64 and 66 seats?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xdfd6ab…
10-30 13:10:39	Will the next Israeli government hold between 64 and 66 seats?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x5443cb…
10-30 12:31:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x4fc312…
10-30 12:16:16	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	23¢	$14	0x658da9…
10-30 12:11:12	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xbd2646…
10-30 12:10:24	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xb2e120…
10-30 11:54:39	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xe84203…
10-30 11:53:39	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xfac6a1…
10-30 10:44:15	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0xe46ca4…
10-30 09:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x1cb8ef…
10-30 09:50:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x71446d…
10-30 09:32:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x506c6c…
10-30 09:20:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x91803a…
10-30 09:20:13	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	29¢	$17	0x041461…
10-30 09:01:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xdbaec4…
10-30 09:00:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xcc38b5…
10-30 08:20:15	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xb5d704…
10-30 08:20:15	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xa196d5…
10-30 08:18:46	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x8a112d…
10-30 08:18:03	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x62e97e…
10-30 05:42:04	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xc5530b…
10-30 05:31:01	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x3015b7…
10-30 05:02:46	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x83f29a…
10-30 05:02:21	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x730aa6…
10-30 04:36:40	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x4fb0ee…
10-30 02:52:30	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xb9a6c0…
10-30 02:03:46	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Charizard?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x7ce8ec…
10-30 01:08:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7e27dd…
10-30 01:02:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x8811a5…
10-30 00:54:43	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x08f68c…
10-30 00:35:55	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3ce48c…
10-29 23:45:13	major airlines suspend ben gurion flights by january 31 2027	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x2e82ca…
10-29 23:38:31	major airlines suspend ben gurion flights by january 31 2027	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb58fc8…
10-29 23:07:21	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x7d9cde…
10-29 22:27:52	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x8385d6…
10-29 20:05:45	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xe31e0a…
10-29 19:07:19	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x5926bf…
10-29 19:07:19	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x05c27f…
10-29 17:31:02	Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x012376…
10-29 14:26:05	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	39¢	$10	0x7d23ae…
10-29 13:51:41	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xef7c5c…
10-29 09:10:22	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x8c93b6…
10-29 09:06:41	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x7a7859…