Realized P&L
+$722
Unrealized P&L
+$3
Hit rate
79.6%
Resolved
480
Trades
4,591
lifetime
Volume
$71.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$669
26 positions
First seen
2026-04-27
last 10-26 23:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 138 days
Categories
Politics
74% 60% +$952
Other
25% 58% -$245
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Tech
0% 75% +$8
Sports
0% 43% +$4
Crypto
0% 67% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +350 $309 91¢ $319 +$10 10-22 19:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +161 $128 90¢ $146 +$17 10-26 23:13
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +110 $83 72¢ $79 -$4 10-23 15:39
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +30 $20 84¢ $25 +$6 10-14 15:30
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? No +26 -$2 92¢ $23 +$26 10-26 22:09
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +23 $9 80¢ $19 +$9 10-13 14:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +75 $17 14¢ $10 -$6 09-05 10:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +56 $26 16¢ $9 -$17 10-11 14:18
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? No +10 $10 86¢ $9 -$1 09-20 00:01
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +20 $18 33¢ $7 -$11 10-03 03:18
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +23 $13 26¢ $6 -$6 10-16 18:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes +10 $5 52¢ $5 $0 09-08 19:23
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes +100 $3 3¢ $3 +$0 06-05 15:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +25 -$1 8¢ $2 +$3 10-06 05:38
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 Yes +10 $7 14¢ $1 -$6 07-31 04:52
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 Yes +1 $1 77¢ $1 +$0 06-24 22:55
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +25 $2 4¢ $1 -$1 09-25 14:31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +5 $2 18¢ $1 -$1 05-31 14:37
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes +13 $35 6¢ $1 -$34 10-11 19:15
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +15 -$7 4¢ $1 +$8 07-23 13:56
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +5 $2 13¢ $1 -$2 09-03 19:43
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes +149 $1 0¢ $1 $0 06-12 15:57
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes +30 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 07-04 23:40
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? Yes +19 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 08-01 03:50
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes +40 $0 1¢ $0 $0 06-16 11:58
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +0 -$14 98¢ $0 +$14 10-26 09:25