Muted-Emergent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

144

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$2.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$33

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 01:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$5

Other

42% 100% +$4

Politics

5% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No		+34	$34	98¢	$33	-$1	09-12 02:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	2	$46	47	0	+47	No	+$0	07-16 22:25
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	2	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	07-22 08:18
will we continue the change democratic bulgaria ppdb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-20 11:49
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	05-27 13:40
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	09-12 02:58
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-24 03:20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	09-02 17:22
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	07-29 20:32
will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	2	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	07-04 04:38
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	05-14 12:24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-20 11:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 13?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-13 20:13
bitcoin above 80k on october 5 2026	1	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	10-05 06:10
highest temperature in hong kong on april 13 2026 27c	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-13 05:30
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-24 00:09
will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on april 21	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-21 07:02
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	2	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	05-06 03:27
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$28	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-20 13:34
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	08-10 21:45
bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-05 17:31
will bitcoin reach 72k july 13 19 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-17 10:28
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	08-15 07:47
ethereum above 2000 on august 6 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	08-06 13:44
ethereum above 2100 on july 28 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-27 20:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-18 12:16
ethereum above 2500 on april 21	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	04-21 03:37
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	06-01 06:14
will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	07-29 22:05
ethereum above 1600 on july 10 2026	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	07-09 23:59
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	05-30 06:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 01:27:37	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd85ff6…
10-26 18:37:17	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7ecd0e…
10-25 20:00:15	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5b1e24…
10-21 10:45:09	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x299583…
10-20 23:31:29	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xed0645…
10-17 07:39:41	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x761b56…
10-12 13:26:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x334811…
10-10 04:08:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2b4ef7…
10-05 18:06:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 7?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf51723…
10-05 06:10:25	bitcoin above 80k on october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x6ecfcf…
10-02 04:16:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xea2c6a…
09-30 00:03:47	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0ecdd9…
09-28 18:10:03	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x25cd67…
09-28 12:45:51	will ethereum dip to 2200 in september 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x809cba…
09-25 03:50:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 25?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x234c5f…
09-24 18:03:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe692d4…
09-21 03:08:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 21?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x604038…
09-12 02:58:07	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3f6fdb…
09-06 06:32:36	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa96ed5…
09-02 17:22:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x634f4e…
08-31 13:55:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xaa1397…
08-29 11:32:31	will ethereum reach 2800 august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x502761…
08-28 20:53:12	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb55d3b…
08-24 03:20:03	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x86451a…
08-21 06:19:22	bitcoin above 68k on august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x11fb1d…
08-20 06:32:30	ethereum above 2000 on august 20 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x63b9ca…
08-15 14:49:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 15?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x779388…
08-15 07:47:45	Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc43dca…
08-13 07:51:19	bitcoin above 60k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xbb5093…
08-10 21:45:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xc3488b…
08-09 01:50:34	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x65a20d…
08-06 13:44:24	ethereum above 2000 on august 6 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd421d6…
07-31 18:44:33	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0d6488…
07-29 22:05:51	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe4b835…
07-29 20:32:54	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0c1e49…
07-27 20:24:33	ethereum above 2100 on july 28 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7e5d75…
07-23 13:13:25	ethereum above 1800 on july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x75b730…
07-22 08:18:25	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xc37968…
07-21 00:21:40	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x77e2cc…
07-17 10:28:55	will bitcoin reach 72k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xeeed2d…
07-16 22:25:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe3ba57…
07-16 11:10:43	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0x87a543…
07-14 00:39:53	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xca2043…
07-12 20:41:47	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x56846c…
07-12 17:33:40	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbebe0e…
07-11 20:43:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7be771…
07-11 17:18:37	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x383379…
07-10 05:36:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 10?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa540d0…
07-09 23:59:56	ethereum above 1600 on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x13a09d…
07-06 00:40:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x181c0b…
07-05 17:31:55	bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x27cd4c…
07-04 04:38:10	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x15f75d…
07-04 01:22:40	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x56731d…
07-02 23:20:52	bitcoin above 66k on july 4 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd74f84…
07-02 03:30:43	ethereum above 1500 on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xfe5b14…
07-01 23:35:41	ethereum above 1800 on july 2 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x97c186…
07-01 09:45:40	bitcoin above 52k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8e7e0e…
07-01 02:05:11	will openais valuation hit low 800b by june 30	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2a4893…
06-24 09:24:53	ethereum above 1800 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x9c76eb…
06-21 14:19:05	bitcoin above 58k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8dbe48…
06-03 09:43:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x45832e…
06-02 11:54:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa56b49…
06-02 02:25:01	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xccaca4…
06-02 00:14:23	Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5eb2c4…
06-01 06:14:17	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x18b859…
05-31 14:00:33	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x02b799…
05-30 19:13:26	Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x24bd02…
05-30 06:51:42	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x22465c…
05-29 05:27:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0b5065…
05-28 20:23:03	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xfff56a…
05-27 22:32:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x6b57cf…
05-27 13:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xba265d…
05-27 12:16:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x08eb54…
05-26 23:23:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5bd9f8…
05-26 07:36:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x719b40…
05-26 04:26:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x9b1754…
05-25 22:14:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8211b0…
05-25 09:17:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaab318…
05-24 04:55:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x3d660d…
05-23 07:22:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x43269a…
05-22 21:18:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x4022c5…
05-22 14:17:09	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb6570b…
05-22 09:34:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b4c4b…
05-21 11:22:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xab1ae6…
05-21 08:51:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x69437e…
05-20 20:27:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc43856…
05-20 13:34:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0x919514…
05-19 19:56:00	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf32082…
05-19 04:57:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xafb7c9…
05-18 12:16:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xbc1e40…
05-17 12:51:28	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x874e1c…
05-17 10:59:14	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd96596…
05-16 20:16:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4f5b31…
05-16 00:42:15	Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 PGA Championship?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4e0ea9…
05-15 09:06:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdfe644…
05-15 07:02:12	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x041db0…
05-15 04:54:18	Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x62c559…
05-14 12:24:39	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcfbfa7…
05-13 20:13:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x05f039…
05-13 16:40:20	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd1cf4e…