Tight-Alpenhorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$343

Unrealized P&L

-$115

Hit rate

88.6%

Resolved

299

Trades

734

lifetime

Volume

$47.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$36

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-03 02:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 87% -$146

Politics

31% 86% -$344

Other

27% 82% +$92

Sports

1% 95% +$52

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-03).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+200	$150	8¢	$17	-$133	06-05 18:30
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$1	06-26 18:48
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-100	-$17	8¢	$-8	+$9	06-25 20:39
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-100	-$10	2¢	$-2	+$8	06-25 20:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$3	01-22 19:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	8	$1.5K	800	800	+0	No	+$64	02-01 01:52
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	21	$1.4K	774	774	+0	No	-$58	01-29 21:06
will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	3	$1.3K	672	672	+0	No	+$7	03-08 19:19
will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	3	$1.0K	522	522	+0	No	+$10	01-23 20:03
will bitcoin reach 95k in february 2026	8	$839	440	440	+0	No	+$36	02-21 18:36
megaquake by march 31	7	$819	444	444	-0	No	+$67	03-31 19:37
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	9	$812	418	418	+0	No	+$21	02-20 22:04
will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	2	$794	500	300	+200	No	+$3	01-22 01:03
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	4	$789	400	400	+0	No	+$10	01-25 04:49
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	5	$754	384	384	+0	No	+$13	02-25 05:04
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	6	$739	378	378	+0	No	+$15	02-24 06:16
cl above 75 jan 2026	1	$712	724	0	+724	No	+$12	01-29 21:12
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	11	$651	350	350	+0	No	+$47	01-29 05:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	11	$600	637	637	+0	Yes	-$590	03-01 01:33
will bitcoin reach 115k in january 2026	2	$594	300	300	+0	No	+$2	01-22 20:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	14	$557	660	100	+560	No	+$71	01-26 21:03
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	13	$556	573	0	+573	No	+$17	04-15 13:48
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	9	$534	360	200	+160	No	+$23	01-16 21:10
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?	5	$505	521	0	+521	Yes	+$16	03-24 07:29
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	3	$503	256	256	+0	No	+$8	01-28 18:21
will bitcoin dip to 86k december 29 january 4	1	$495	500	0	+500	No	+$5	01-04 20:45
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	7	$466	259	259	+0	No	+$51	02-24 06:16
Iran leadership change by March 13?	7	$462	237	237	+0	No	+$10	03-14 03:40
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	3	$445	226	226	+0	No	+$5	03-05 05:37
will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	2	$444	224	224	+0	No	+$2	01-22 18:55
us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	4	$427	450	0	+450	No	+$23	01-25 05:08
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	3	$423	426	0	+426	No	+$3	02-01 04:55
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	1	$419	420	0	+420	Yes	+$1	06-08 07:26
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	4	$395	200	200	+0	No	+$4	02-24 06:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 02:00:47	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x8d520c…
08-03 02:00:30	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x0d3296…
06-30 17:03:56	will bitcoin reach 62k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x010775…
06-30 16:14:10	will bitcoin reach 66k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb05590…
06-30 16:13:50	will bitcoin reach 66k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5867d7…
06-30 16:12:34	will bitcoin reach 64k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x4f8327…
06-26 18:48:22	Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xf4e0a6…
06-26 11:00:10	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x204f1e…
06-26 07:29:23	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x01ddb9…
06-25 20:40:10	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xe3f6e3…
06-25 20:39:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x301e82…
06-23 08:47:04	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x54b4da…
06-23 02:53:11	will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x5e97fa…
06-23 02:49:47	will czechia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120738	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xb70c98…
06-23 02:47:59	will paraguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120749	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3d125c…
06-23 02:45:31	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x9f5140…
06-23 02:44:58	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xec5171…
06-23 02:44:29	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x6b50bd…
06-10 16:10:18	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x978118…
06-10 16:09:45	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x1504c5…
06-09 22:33:25	will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 nba finals be by 25 or more points 20260603223720646	No	BUY	29	88¢	$26	0xf60983…
06-09 19:25:28	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x6fb44e…
06-09 19:25:15	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x2b52ef…
06-09 19:24:55	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x58c430…
06-09 19:24:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x1e88cb…
06-09 19:23:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6e621f…
06-09 19:23:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8e6f5b…
06-09 19:23:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x71ca78…
06-09 19:22:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xd82db9…
06-09 19:22:25	will wti crude oil wti hit high 125 in june	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x66c236…
06-09 19:03:40	will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 nba finals be by 30 or more points 20260603223720647	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x34df8a…
06-09 19:03:12	will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 nba finals be by 35 or more points 20260603223720648	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0xac25a1…
06-08 07:26:21	Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	BUY	420	100¢	$419	0x9ac575…
06-05 18:32:07	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	108	96¢	$103	0xf8f234…
06-05 18:30:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xcdf502…
05-31 05:18:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x85526f…
05-29 15:03:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x0c4917…
05-28 19:43:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x948039…
05-25 06:58:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	80	42¢	$34	0x248cc3…
05-24 03:11:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x0dbfbd…
05-24 03:06:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x98e6a8…
05-24 01:01:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xeb2914…
05-23 23:46:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	72	74¢	$53	0x6ed697…
05-07 01:52:21	Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x04b9fc…
05-07 01:52:00	Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x5f26e7…
05-07 01:50:17	Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xa93644…
05-07 01:47:06	Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xaf0e46…
05-07 01:33:36	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x005ba5…
05-07 01:33:20	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xa2783d…
05-07 01:31:33	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x682420…
05-07 01:30:01	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x5c0b31…
05-07 01:23:57	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x6be3f9…
05-06 22:41:22	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7fda51…
05-01 21:22:56	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$95	0x08f16c…
05-01 21:22:44	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x9f3307…
04-23 17:26:26	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	No	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x34aac9…
04-23 17:24:32	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x654709…
04-23 17:23:50	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xa7d637…
04-23 17:23:00	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x962583…
04-22 18:52:46	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x3c5a02…
04-22 18:23:34	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xd7a904…
04-22 18:19:48	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xc3da6d…
04-18 07:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0x355a30…
04-18 07:18:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	39	42¢	$16	0x149616…
04-18 07:17:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	39	76¢	$29	0x75d7a1…
04-18 07:14:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	70	42¢	$29	0xa86e4c…
04-17 15:11:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	69	53¢	$36	0xacc21d…
04-17 15:07:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x72bd27…
04-17 15:02:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xf56a37…
04-15 13:48:08	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xe353ce…
04-15 13:48:08	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xc74f51…
04-15 13:41:12	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf90326…
04-15 08:40:12	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0xfd2567…
04-15 08:08:18	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x9565a4…
04-14 20:46:02	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x09870a…
04-14 18:47:06	bitcoin above 82k on april 20	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xdf1cb7…
04-14 18:34:04	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xd24818…
04-14 15:26:07	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xcc5db3…
04-14 15:22:35	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xfe0f1e…
04-14 15:22:31	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x31180c…
04-14 13:42:15	bitcoin above 82k on april 20	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x7f9b11…
04-14 12:04:33	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x5f24bc…
04-14 10:56:39	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x25cc89…
04-14 10:01:33	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x4ed12c…
04-14 10:01:31	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbea714…
04-14 08:53:43	bitcoin above 82k on april 20	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x56490e…
04-14 06:22:47	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x00df54…
04-14 06:01:15	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0xcb4aee…
04-14 05:46:45	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x300d16…
04-14 05:40:57	bitcoin above 72k on april 15	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x248f67…
04-14 05:39:25	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xa460bb…
04-14 05:04:53	bitcoin above 78k on april 20	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf52015…
04-13 20:23:41	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0x4ad57f…
04-13 20:20:19	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0xa21375…
04-13 20:15:03	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	54	88¢	$48	0xc831a5…
04-13 19:07:09	bitcoin above 70k on april 14	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xd6cf78…
04-13 19:06:43	bitcoin above 70k on april 15	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x5d6a96…
04-13 19:06:13	bitcoin above 72k on april 14	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xff1625…
04-13 02:53:37	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x5b3c0f…
04-06 21:44:15	will bitcoin dip to 67k on april 6	No	BUY	18	96¢	$18	0xa4be02…