Firm-Lemonade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

Trades

317

lifetime

Volume

$21.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-19 18:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Tech

46% — —

Politics

34% — —

Other

16% — —

Crypto

3% 30% $-17

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	7	$4.5K	2,827	2,827	+0	open	—	06-12 16:58
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	9	$4.5K	4,509	5,144	-636	open	—	06-12 19:25
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	13	$2.2K	1,764	1,764	+0	open	—	05-15 02:42
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	25	$2.0K	27,819	22,819	+5,000	open	—	05-21 05:33
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	58	$1.3K	44,217	18,120	+26,097	open	—	05-20 02:01
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	60	$1.1K	36,724	20,024	+16,700	open	—	05-20 22:44
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	6	$597	832	832	+0	open	—	05-15 18:10
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	16	$577	2,318	2,318	+0	open	—	05-17 08:55
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	5	$559	1,171	1,171	+0	open	—	06-12 17:33
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	2	$532	462	462	+0	open	—	05-18 12:58
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$459	368	368	+0	open	—	05-15 04:06
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$394	384	384	+0	open	—	05-15 04:06
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	3	$270	200	200	+0	open	—	05-17 07:21
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$248	389	389	+0	open	—	05-14 07:44
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	2	$195	154	154	+0	open	—	05-20 02:00
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	3	$191	196	196	+0	open	—	06-12 15:35
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$147	119	119	+0	open	—	05-15 04:17
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$132	223	71	+152	open	—	05-15 04:18
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$123	83	83	+0	open	—	05-15 04:08
will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	3	$116	234	234	+0	open	—	06-12 15:55
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$116	76	76	+0	open	—	05-15 04:07
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$100	203	0	+203	open	—	05-14 10:13
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	2	$98	375	375	+0	open	—	06-12 15:54
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	24	$88	54,229	0	+54,229	open	—	05-17 00:54
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$86	52	52	+0	open	—	05-14 10:58
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$70	204	204	+0	open	—	05-14 10:34
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt25t by june 30	3	$68	39	39	+0	open	—	06-12 17:30
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	2	$64	440	440	+0	open	—	06-12 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	4	$60	49	49	+0	Up	+$30	05-11 07:09
spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	1	$50	250	0	+250	open	—	06-12 10:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 18:08:22	cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19	G2	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0x4e95a6…
06-19 18:05:50	cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19	G2	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x320dc4…
06-19 17:55:41	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xaec12e…
06-12 19:25:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	2,958	12¢	$346	0xda8b11…
06-12 17:37:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	645	62¢	$400	0x616c10…
06-12 17:33:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	658	15¢	$99	0xef29f6…
06-12 17:32:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	1,678	56¢	$945	0x9ba599…
06-12 17:30:31	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt25t by june 30	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x1a0196…
06-12 17:09:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	135	72¢	$97	0xbdd51f…
06-12 17:09:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	250	30¢	$75	0x6ffc55…
06-12 17:06:49	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	408	29¢	$118	0x219bfc…
06-12 17:06:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	1,014	69¢	$700	0x324f38…
06-12 16:59:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	2,205	68¢	$1,500	0xf2ed51…
06-12 16:58:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	2,827	90¢	$2,535	0xa3f627…
06-12 16:12:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	918	68¢	$624	0x8f1c58…
06-12 16:08:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	618	63¢	$390	0x23c748…
06-12 15:56:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	101	73¢	$74	0xccff77…
06-12 15:55:27	will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	Yes	SELL	234	16¢	$38	0x86c65a…
06-12 15:54:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	375	6¢	$23	0x00c940…
06-12 15:54:22	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	SELL	440	4¢	$16	0xf01917…
06-12 15:52:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	491	69¢	$337	0x272fd6…
06-12 15:52:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	508	33¢	$167	0x3c942a…
06-12 15:52:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	513	13¢	$67	0xfd4a6c…
06-12 15:35:06	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	196	48¢	$93	0x0fa32f…
06-12 11:42:45	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	761	1¢	$11	0x3e0bea…
06-12 11:39:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	171	50¢	$86	0x1590da…
06-12 11:39:21	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	236	1¢	$3	0xe32215…
06-12 11:39:18	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x046cc1…
06-12 11:39:03	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x5fe0d8…
06-12 11:34:36	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt25t by june 30	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xd75bec…
06-12 11:34:18	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt25t by june 30	Yes	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0x4749f8…
06-12 11:33:25	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x36d6a0…
06-12 11:32:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0xd87192…
06-12 11:31:16	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	62	1¢	$1	0x41a781…
06-12 10:30:40	will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	Yes	BUY	149	34¢	$51	0xeebbae…
06-12 10:18:13	will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 200 high 20260608191407796	Yes	BUY	85	32¢	$27	0xb2e7f2…
06-12 10:11:06	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x5212ca…
06-12 09:24:54	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	157	75¢	$118	0x415c9f…
06-12 09:12:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	170	60¢	$102	0x460453…
06-12 08:44:45	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	BUY	440	11¢	$48	0x690a0b…
06-12 08:44:34	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	375	20¢	$75	0xb43ad4…
06-12 08:44:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	513	39¢	$200	0x0217a3…
06-12 08:44:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	338	59¢	$200	0xf8349c…
06-12 08:43:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	541	74¢	$400	0x677789…
05-21 05:33:52	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x2d9e2c…
05-20 22:45:25	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	24,110	0¢	$24	0x76ea24…
05-20 22:44:57	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5,274	0¢	$26	0x8d27fc…
05-20 02:02:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	8,329	1¢	$75	0x9fcb49…
05-20 02:02:13	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	8,049	1¢	$72	0xc7e04e…
05-20 02:01:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	17,617	1¢	$159	0xe1e5a8…
05-20 02:00:50	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	154	84¢	$130	0xf99e1c…
05-19 16:54:14	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8,329	1¢	$108	0xf80050…
05-19 15:20:06	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$2	0x4bfb6f…
05-19 15:19:37	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x827e19…
05-19 15:11:51	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x6b82fc…
05-19 15:06:12	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xd3e85c…
05-19 14:46:11	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x2261e0…
05-19 14:44:49	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,511	1¢	$20	0xb89c31…
05-19 14:44:30	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4,376	1¢	$57	0x62c216…
05-19 14:31:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5,206	1¢	$68	0xa758cb…
05-19 11:04:59	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7,809	1¢	$94	0x8bb831…
05-19 11:03:40	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10,411	1¢	$125	0x7f4502…
05-19 06:30:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9,697	1¢	$136	0x0e8576…
05-18 18:22:47	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$1	0xfc4933…
05-18 18:20:17	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x745511…
05-18 18:03:04	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	175	2¢	$3	0x948cae…
05-18 18:02:19	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xec3264…
05-18 17:45:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x5d97c1…
05-18 17:22:41	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7,180	2¢	$129	0xb007fb…
05-18 16:14:40	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5,651	2¢	$86	0x47e9ae…
05-18 16:10:43	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	12,508	2¢	$203	0xb0057f…
05-18 15:38:12	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	611	2¢	$10	0x1cdd33…
05-18 15:37:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xba69f8…
05-18 15:32:43	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4,074	2¢	$65	0x494eab…
05-18 14:28:17	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0xa9349e…
05-18 14:28:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,082	2¢	$44	0x98e988…
05-18 14:27:34	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,130	2¢	$45	0x586551…
05-18 13:51:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	226	2¢	$5	0xe89f8d…
05-18 13:27:32	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	86	2¢	$2	0x593438…
05-18 13:20:57	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,213	2¢	$49	0x82ffe5…
05-18 13:20:41	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,120	2¢	$47	0x86719f…
05-18 13:12:20	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,596	2¢	$60	0x2bea54…
05-18 13:07:28	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x6764e0…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf7af83…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x89c71d…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x8780b7…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x6c22d6…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x6a5000…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x6530f6…
05-18 13:07:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x13a32b…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xef3eed…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xe87ebd…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xcf495f…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xbd3ec5…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x961699…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x70b715…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6974dc…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x65d31d…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x5bb3f3…
05-18 13:07:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x4e39fb…