Virtual-Cell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$62

Unrealized P&L

+$57

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

106

Trades

417

lifetime

Volume

$7.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$188

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 09-24 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

58% 64% -$36

Other

30% 42% -$105

Tech

8% 83% +$103

Crypto

3% 75% +$93

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+100	$71	94¢	$94	+$23	05-04 14:17
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No		+100	$59	93¢	$93	+$34	05-15 19:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	12	$395	342	210	+132	Yes	-$31	04-02 01:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	7	$349	216	216	+0	Yes	+$57	04-03 22:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$346	275	200	+75	No	-$8	03-25 18:25
us mobileinternet outages caused by iran	3	$316	161	161	+0	No	+$3	01-17 01:48
internet access restored in iran by friday	17	$312	170	210	-40	No	+$42	01-14 20:45
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	6	$266	180	180	+0	No	+$40	03-14 15:18
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	9	$245	173	173	+0	Yes	+$31	05-28 07:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire before us x iran ceasefire	4	$237	140	140	+0	No	-$1	03-20 15:38
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	4	$204	112	112	+0	No	+$9	01-07 17:29
Iran leadership change by April 30?	7	$203	250	215	+35	No	+$23	03-14 15:55
will iranian officials visit the white house by january 31	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$4	01-25 17:40
internet access restored in iran by friday 972	10	$184	100	130	-30	Yes	+$37	01-21 06:51
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	4	$183	106	106	+0	No	+$4	04-13 12:59
will the us lift direct iran ofac sanctions by june 30 2026	4	$150	210	0	+210	Yes	-$150	06-05 07:28
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	3	$149	90	90	+0	Yes	-$4	04-01 15:41
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	3	$145	100	60	+40	No	+$5	04-01 11:41
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$143	80	80	+0	No	+$12	03-14 10:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	7	$138	0	144	-144	No	-$6	05-29 14:37
total internet blackout in iran by february 28 2026	7	$132	76	76	+0	Yes	+$12	02-25 12:38
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	7	$132	87	87	+0	No	+$6	01-25 17:38
will netanyahu tweet again by saturday	18	$128	152	139	+13	No	+$9	03-14 18:38
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$126	70	70	+0	No	+$8	03-11 13:11
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	8	$126	208	118	+90	Ceasefire	-$41	04-06 01:21
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$125	169	0	+169	Yes	-$54	05-26 13:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$121	72	72	+0	No	-$1	02-18 14:23
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	3	$117	68	68	+0	No	+$6	03-23 11:58
Will Trump say "Palestine" in April?	2	$116	76	76	+0	No	+$34	04-30 22:46
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	2	$110	200	200	+0	Yes	+$70	03-27 07:02
cz binance of tweets march 24 march 31 2026 0 19	11	$109	148	148	+0	Yes	+$24	03-28 17:40
will freecash get paid real money be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30	3	$109	85	85	+0	No	+$9	01-26 01:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 01:59:13	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x55eea3…
09-14 12:46:49	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$25	0x16c028…
09-09 00:46:06	Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe64a26…
08-20 10:30:19	Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x93efb5…
06-10 11:52:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x996478…
06-08 16:09:13	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 11 20260607232624535	No	BUY	99	12¢	$12	0x029100…
06-08 12:01:16	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 11 20260607232624535	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x8a686b…
06-05 07:28:46	will the us lift direct iran ofac sanctions by june 30 2026	No	BUY	30	75¢	$23	0x51ca37…
06-05 06:30:34	will the us lift direct iran ofac sanctions by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x07f81d…
05-29 14:37:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	138	96¢	$133	0x3f8ceb…
05-29 02:17:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x51e8cf…
05-29 02:17:39	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa974f4…
05-29 02:17:38	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xbdced2…
05-29 02:17:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1d8f8f…
05-29 02:17:32	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe97061…
05-28 13:12:07	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0fd9a5…
05-28 07:26:57	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	91¢	$44	0x09ef93…
05-28 07:23:59	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0xf1a88a…
05-28 07:23:34	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x9bb047…
05-26 13:28:10	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	75¢	$53	0x9ac48e…
05-25 07:47:38	Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	68¢	$60	0x362379…
05-21 06:31:19	Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0x14c0d1…
05-20 11:17:54	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	57¢	$19	0x85c378…
05-20 11:16:05	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0x2b4f92…
05-20 07:25:07	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	22	72¢	$16	0xa2c008…
05-19 17:16:03	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x04889e…
05-19 14:27:14	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xb10e1c…
05-19 12:32:40	Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x7d6e99…
05-15 19:29:49	Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xf22a3e…
05-12 03:46:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xb44fa2…
05-11 21:08:59	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	76¢	$23	0x6103d3…
05-11 16:12:14	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$15	0x4c2941…
05-10 09:30:11	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x0dbd68…
05-09 22:34:35	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0x99e781…
05-04 14:17:16	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	71¢	$51	0x84324f…
05-04 05:02:18	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	71¢	$17	0xd5c161…
05-03 16:30:24	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xe7bca3…
05-02 20:31:38	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	BUY	51	69¢	$35	0x61eed8…
05-02 02:51:58	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x25edfc…
05-02 02:51:56	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	No	BUY	32	84¢	$27	0x142277…
05-01 20:29:36	Will Trump say "Giraffe" in May?	No	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0x859d1f…
04-30 22:46:56	Will Trump say "Palestine" in April?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x190f2b…
04-26 01:32:18	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0x8ac000…
04-25 19:59:44	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4adff4…
04-22 17:47:14	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x14aa2e…
04-22 15:11:52	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0xdfe60d…
04-13 12:59:45	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	No	SELL	106	89¢	$94	0xc16a88…
04-06 18:50:37	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	29	40¢	$11	0x32d810…
04-06 18:46:39	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xc44539…
04-06 18:46:39	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x6efec7…
04-06 18:20:09	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xccbee5…
04-06 18:19:31	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0xfa3754…
04-06 18:11:01	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xe20945…
04-06 16:18:37	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0xd3b708…
04-06 15:40:47	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	48	81¢	$39	0x0b6637…
04-06 04:56:45	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x97b7a1…
04-06 03:19:29	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x9a5465…
04-06 01:21:05	Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Leadership Change	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x87f5c8…
04-05 11:50:53	khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 15 19	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xb45617…
04-04 20:16:21	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xecc87b…
04-03 22:55:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	216	94¢	$203	0xc89faa…
04-02 17:08:09	zelenskyy of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	Yes	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0x73b821…
04-02 16:44:13	zelenskyy of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x6cd1fb…
04-02 14:47:13	zelenskyy of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xc500fb…
04-02 13:23:45	will trump post pahlavi on truth social this week	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa03297…
04-02 07:04:41	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 20 39	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x07b917…
04-02 06:53:13	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	27¢	$9	0x5bcf05…
04-02 06:28:07	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 40 59	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1a991e…
04-02 01:34:57	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x1501be…
04-01 21:58:45	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 20 39	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x93c642…
04-01 21:25:57	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	90	50¢	$45	0x91d167…
04-01 21:24:59	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	80	51¢	$41	0xe455ae…
04-01 20:58:49	zelenskyy of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	Yes	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0x930321…
04-01 20:53:57	zelenskyy of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xc6ca1e…
04-01 20:45:35	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	72	78¢	$57	0x038a49…
04-01 18:05:23	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x3256cc…
04-01 17:09:35	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	No	BUY	87	85¢	$74	0x4aad47…
04-01 16:40:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x151180…
04-01 16:39:51	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xba3cb3…
04-01 16:39:51	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3e819e…
04-01 16:39:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8d2d84…
04-01 15:41:55	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	45	80¢	$36	0x0e6acb…
04-01 15:27:55	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	45	81¢	$36	0xcf4807…
04-01 15:21:51	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x633669…
04-01 15:10:31	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xe56b0e…
04-01 15:06:53	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0x86df4f…
04-01 15:05:25	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	120	84¢	$100	0x2e376b…
04-01 14:33:59	will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x256d01…
04-01 14:26:31	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0x81f44d…
04-01 14:25:05	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	59	83¢	$49	0xcd6fd4…
04-01 14:23:31	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	41	83¢	$34	0x405b89…
04-01 14:22:49	will trump say obliterated or obliteration during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xd0000c…
04-01 14:16:09	will trumps remarks not air 135 938 873 176 561 352 635	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x0d91a2…
04-01 14:12:33	will trumps remarks not air 135 938 873 176 561 352 635	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x2915f1…
04-01 14:07:37	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	90	85¢	$76	0x500922…
04-01 14:07:01	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x3a76ab…
04-01 13:54:33	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x28abde…
04-01 11:46:13	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x93c1e1…
04-01 11:42:19	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xdc1e3c…
04-01 11:41:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	No	SELL	60	91¢	$55	0x9d6462…