Extra-Small-Thief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 07-01 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

31% 100% +$13

Politics

27% — —

Crypto

23% 40% $-10

Tech

19% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	3	$372	226	226	+0	open	—	04-12 21:14
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	4	$230	173	173	+0	open	—	06-30 08:26
bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	8	$133	91	89	+2	open	—	04-17 11:53
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	5	$125	264	162	+102	open	—	04-12 19:38
btc updown 5m 1776853500	1	$100	370	0	+370	open	—	04-22 10:27
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	1	$100	116	0	+116	open	—	04-21 21:21
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$95	56	56	+0	open	—	04-12 20:25
nvda up or down on april 16 2026	7	$64	218	201	+17	open	—	04-16 19:12
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	4	$62	42	42	+0	Yes	+$13	04-13 07:52
btc updown 5m 1776364800	3	$62	77	0	+77	open	—	04-16 18:44
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	6	$60	56	54	+3	open	—	04-22 13:46
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	4	$53	62	62	+0	open	—	06-29 09:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$50	245	0	+245	open	—	04-17 11:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$50	69	0	+69	open	—	04-17 11:10
nflx up or down on april 16 2026	6	$47	57	27	+30	open	—	04-16 19:57
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	3	$41	62	62	+0	open	—	04-12 19:37
spx up or down on april 16 2026	2	$40	49	0	+49	open	—	04-16 19:18
next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	2	$39	28	28	+0	open	—	07-01 07:51
btc updown 5m 1776853800	4	$35	47	45	+2	open	—	04-22 10:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	05-04 21:08
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	06-30 09:51
rut up or down on april 16 2026	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	04-16 19:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	06-26 07:56
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	2	$19	12	12	+0	open	—	06-30 07:43
will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$18	54	54	+0	open	—	04-12 19:38
will the democratic coalition dk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$17	271	271	+0	open	—	04-10 18:22
btc updown 5m 1776364500	2	$16	24	0	+24	open	—	04-16 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	3	$16	17	10	+7	Up	+$3	05-06 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 20:02
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	2	$10	11	11	+0	open	—	07-01 07:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 07:51:35	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	28	66¢	$19	0x1d232a…
07-01 07:51:05	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xd90efc…
06-30 09:51:14	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x105956…
06-30 08:26:10	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	SELL	40	51¢	$20	0x4714ef…
06-30 07:43:23	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x6b6f26…
06-29 09:25:53	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	44	30¢	$13	0xdfbcd0…
06-26 07:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xa97102…
06-26 07:55:49	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x1663b7…
06-26 07:55:11	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xf987ee…
06-26 07:54:40	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x94d485…
06-26 07:50:55	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xe851ed…
06-26 07:48:55	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x3dc1e2…
06-26 07:48:41	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7ba4f5…
06-26 07:46:49	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	133	75¢	$100	0x2375f9…
06-26 07:46:44	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	No	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x19537d…
06-26 07:44:13	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x91556d…
06-26 07:43:47	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x238046…
05-06 20:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5a086b…
05-06 20:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x7cb298…
05-06 20:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd989fc…
05-06 20:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xcf205c…
05-06 20:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x6c6440…
05-06 20:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x72b46b…
05-06 20:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x64b7b1…
05-06 19:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x68285e…
05-04 21:08:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x9c24d6…
04-22 13:46:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	35	75¢	$26	0x35d502…
04-22 13:44:52	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x8fb0f1…
04-22 13:43:28	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x5a7515…
04-22 13:31:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xbefc67…
04-22 13:31:48	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0x030bc3…
04-22 10:36:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x79e1d7…
04-22 10:33:18	btc updown 5m 1776853800	Down	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x5ca80d…
04-22 10:32:12	btc updown 5m 1776853800	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x801f47…
04-22 10:31:42	btc updown 5m 1776853800	Up	SELL	23	59¢	$14	0x7e93bd…
04-22 10:30:14	btc updown 5m 1776853800	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x9b5253…
04-22 10:27:18	btc updown 5m 1776853500	Down	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xeafa8d…
04-21 21:21:30	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf046fa…
04-17 11:53:12	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0xfd9775…
04-17 11:53:12	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0xac8d66…
04-17 11:52:54	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x7ad7fb…
04-17 11:14:52	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xa51a75…
04-17 11:11:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	20¢	$50	0x1cddb2…
04-17 11:10:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x4a5782…
04-17 08:33:28	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xb98f59…
04-17 08:33:28	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xaefd9b…
04-17 08:33:28	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x58fc7d…
04-16 20:18:44	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x7d4162…
04-16 19:57:44	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xdf1a8c…
04-16 19:56:32	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Down	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x98ad1e…
04-16 19:55:04	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x42f8fb…
04-16 19:47:50	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x253e9a…
04-16 19:47:46	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x0c9f9a…
04-16 19:24:06	rut up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x45bb74…
04-16 19:21:34	nflx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x05a16f…
04-16 19:18:24	spx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xcf1642…
04-16 19:14:26	spx opens up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x64ec04…
04-16 19:12:20	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x279ff9…
04-16 19:10:20	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	SELL	90	13¢	$12	0xefd2ec…
04-16 19:10:02	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	SELL	112	15¢	$17	0x32ae0c…
04-16 18:50:22	spx up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x6d0c8f…
04-16 18:44:30	btc updown 5m 1776364800	Up	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xfd8a79…
04-16 18:41:38	btc updown 5m 1776364800	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x6ccc84…
04-16 18:40:20	btc updown 5m 1776364800	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb57ce2…
04-16 18:37:20	btc updown 5m 1776364500	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x514b8c…
04-16 18:37:10	btc updown 5m 1776364500	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xd6acb9…
04-16 18:29:16	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x403bac…
04-16 18:28:38	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x9298c4…
04-16 17:55:28	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xe085d6…
04-16 17:43:02	nvda up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xc73c38…
04-16 17:32:48	bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x7fc7e0…
04-13 07:52:45	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	90¢	$24	0xc1e48b…
04-13 07:29:35	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x89de7e…
04-13 07:23:15	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xc03a04…
04-12 21:14:19	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	226	95¢	$214	0xae2036…
04-12 20:27:33	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	63	87¢	$55	0x24b936…
04-12 20:25:53	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	56	99¢	$55	0x3c365d…
04-12 20:02:31	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	162	63¢	$102	0xa700bd…
04-12 19:38:29	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$3	0xb4bf16…
04-12 19:38:01	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	54	5¢	$3	0xda17cb…
04-12 19:37:55	will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xa9f127…
04-12 19:37:13	will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	Yes	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0x5f4e1f…
04-10 21:21:03	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xc9ddb9…
04-10 18:22:17	will the democratic coalition dk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	271	3¢	$9	0xe0c45d…
04-10 13:06:03	will the democratic coalition dk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	271	3¢	$9	0x569127…
04-10 11:39:31	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x338b6a…
04-10 09:31:25	btc updown 5m 1775813400	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x49fd18…
04-10 09:29:19	btc updown 5m 1775813100	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xde6244…
04-09 22:15:13	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x997e9f…
04-09 21:37:19	will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	Yes	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0xe4e70e…
04-09 08:53:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0xbcd09b…
04-09 08:53:13	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	SELL	142	25¢	$36	0x9a3ce2…
04-09 08:51:57	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xa0fc0c…
04-08 13:26:25	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xcb442a…