Naughty-Smelting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$33

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

Trades

125

lifetime

Volume

$2.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$36

1 position

First seen

2026-03-31

last 10-04 18:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

40% 68% -$24

Other

27% 65% -$40

Crypto

22% 75% +$3

Sports

8% 82% +$18

Tech

3% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?	Yes		+38	$30	94¢	$36	+$6	10-04 18:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	2	$211	124	124	+0	Yes	+$11	04-02 00:57
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	04-02 00:58
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	5	$139	81	81	+0	Yes	+$21	05-11 13:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 18:55 UTC	3	$130	138	0	+138	Down	+$8	04-02 18:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$110	62	62	+0	No	+$14	05-04 04:32
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$1	04-02 00:58
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 19:20 UTC	1	$100	103	0	+103	Up	+$3	04-02 19:24
will uae strike iran by march 31	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-31 18:29
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$86	52	52	+0	Yes	+$17	04-14 20:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	3	$55	574	0	+574	Down	+$19	09-21 03:15
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$1	03-31 18:50
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	2	$47	28	28	+0	Yes	+$7	05-11 14:01
will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	2	$43	23	23	+0	Yes	+$3	04-13 18:16
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 13:55 UTC	1	$40	48	0	+48	Down	+$8	04-01 13:58
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$34	40	0	+40	Yes	+$6	05-11 14:45
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$30	43	0	+43	No	-$30	10-04 18:48
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	1	$30	47	0	+47	Yes	+$17	05-10 14:28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$30	37	0	+37	Yes	+$7	05-11 14:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 19:55 UTC	1	$30	41	0	+41	Down	-$30	04-02 19:58
Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?	1	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	10-04 18:47
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	2	$30	46	0	+46	No	-$30	04-15 10:36
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$30	41	0	+41	Yes	+$11	05-11 14:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 01:40 UTC	3	$30	50	0	+50	Up	+$20	04-05 01:44
Will voter turnout be less than 85% in the 2026 Maltese general election?	2	$26	31	31	+0	No	-$14	05-29 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	1	$25	28	0	+28	Down	+$3	09-21 03:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 01:30 UTC	1	$25	30	0	+30	Up	+$5	06-05 01:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$25	15	15	+0	Yes	+$5	04-14 20:02
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$24	29	29	+0	No	-$16	04-19 14:21
will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	04-13 18:17
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	1	$22	28	0	+28	Yes	+$6	04-14 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 18:48:07	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x93e0b9…
10-04 18:47:01	Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?	Yes	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xd36d3b…
09-21 03:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x56ddf8…
09-21 03:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xefa227…
09-21 03:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x4974f6…
09-21 03:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x009bac…
09-21 03:03:37	will jd vance say god 3 times during his rally in north carolina	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xbddbd8…
09-21 03:03:25	will jd vance say ass during his rally in north carolina	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x88c483…
08-17 17:43:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x0089dd…
07-09 17:34:38	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x890125…
07-09 17:33:17	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xf3d34f…
07-09 17:31:40	another world cup card reversed 20260706193823524	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x6d524f…
07-09 17:27:49	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x1d340c…
07-03 05:23:14	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xefe603…
06-16 22:52:29	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x6989df…
06-15 03:07:37	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xcff478…
06-15 03:06:46	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x2018c9…
06-15 03:06:31	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xee229e…
06-15 03:06:07	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xe5f960…
06-12 03:53:10	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xfbcdd8…
06-12 03:51:04	Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa31a2a…
06-12 03:32:22	will trump say biden during ufc 250 20260610182827981	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x1512dd…
06-12 03:28:00	jude bellingham 20260609175104688	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x4fb6f5…
06-12 03:26:07	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x098692…
06-07 22:46:49	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x843c09…
06-06 15:14:51	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7a0e11…
06-05 19:13:22	Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xc2adae…
06-05 01:31:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x0cd87b…
06-04 12:22:18	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xb17b51…
06-03 15:17:09	Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x1a9d43…
06-03 15:16:10	Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xe181de…
06-03 15:15:46	will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xc10af1…
06-03 15:09:58	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x25a44f…
06-03 15:01:24	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x8aa8bd…
06-01 02:04:12	Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xc44229…
05-29 19:18:49	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xbb26d0…
05-29 19:15:05	Will voter turnout be less than 85% in the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	SELL	31	20¢	$6	0xbb5da5…
05-27 16:36:14	Will Trump say "Wolf" in May?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x9f4d4c…
05-27 16:29:30	Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x8104d7…
05-27 16:20:57	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x29f791…
05-25 15:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x29b961…
05-25 15:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xc43ec7…
05-21 21:57:44	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xe80e4e…
05-21 21:51:19	Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x47a871…
05-20 13:19:00	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x033678…
05-20 13:16:19	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xa638f4…
05-14 03:56:58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0x1d029c…
05-12 14:35:41	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x110ed2…
05-12 14:16:26	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x14de7d…
05-12 14:08:21	Will voter turnout be less than 85% in the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xd9bf1a…
05-12 13:59:19	Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xa31f9b…
05-11 14:47:24	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xff5965…
05-11 14:46:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x9b8dce…
05-11 14:45:14	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x7bc8b1…
05-11 14:25:17	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xc21ef5…
05-11 14:25:10	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x8c8626…
05-11 14:01:01	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xe50306…
05-11 13:59:55	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	81	99¢	$80	0xe1322c…
05-11 01:17:49	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x4aa91c…
05-11 00:37:01	Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xe6b81a…
05-10 14:33:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x922005…
05-10 14:28:15	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x4a4454…
05-08 05:35:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xc7bec3…
05-08 05:34:21	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x56dce5…
05-06 03:57:38	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x2adaee…
05-05 04:29:02	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x315f95…
05-04 04:36:44	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6d4d52…
05-04 04:32:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x52f612…
04-19 14:27:28	fl1 psg lyo 2026 04 19 psg	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0x8e2bcc…
04-19 14:21:58	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0xa576f1…
04-18 14:45:56	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	81¢	$15	0x8a340f…
04-16 17:28:08	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x9bb6f8…
04-16 17:26:50	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x3dc277…
04-15 10:37:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x756384…
04-15 10:36:24	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xcd0879…
04-14 20:19:26	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	28	78¢	$22	0x705959…
04-14 20:18:10	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0x08155f…
04-14 20:16:42	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x1b3b3d…
04-14 20:10:38	sud san rec1 2026 04 14 san	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xcc5134…
04-14 20:02:30	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x28cc30…
04-14 20:01:24	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0xe29506…
04-13 18:19:49	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x424aae…
04-13 18:17:25	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x877078…
04-13 18:16:37	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xaebaf3…
04-10 16:35:37	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x7cd0c0…
04-07 20:48:43	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 exact score 0 0	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x230a54…
04-07 20:47:07	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 draw	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xaa1a1e…
04-07 20:45:13	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x9c663a…
04-07 20:42:53	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x4b75cb…
04-07 19:26:23	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xfcacb2…
04-07 19:25:13	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xd37a73…
04-07 19:22:57	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xd42811…
04-07 19:22:19	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x4669f7…
04-07 19:19:31	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9ad331…
04-07 19:17:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xe9472a…
04-07 19:16:23	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x56631f…
04-07 19:13:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x09b3cb…
04-07 19:06:13	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xecb5de…
04-07 19:03:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x755538…
04-05 04:33:33	will trump say jesus christ during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xc4e92f…