Exciting-Manhunt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$194

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

32.2%

Resolved

833

Trades

3,454

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$174

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 06-09 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 15% $-181

Other

2% 25% $-14

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 391 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No		+199	$170	84¢	$168	$-2	06-04 14:57
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes		+14	$10	42¢	$6	$-4	05-31 11:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	12	$322	307	291	+16	Up	+$79	05-12 13:03
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	3	$170	199	0	+199	open	—	06-04 14:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$112	0	132	-132	open	—	05-28 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	4	$103	195	6	+189	Down	$-100	05-13 04:34
btc updown 5m 1780834800	3	$59	71	35	+35	open	—	06-07 12:24
will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	2	$49	55	0	+55	open	—	06-05 20:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$44	86	0	+86	open	—	05-30 08:27
btc updown 5m 1780833600	4	$42	84	0	+84	open	—	06-07 11:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	8	$35	130	7	+124	Up	$-25	05-13 04:37
btc updown 5m 1780834200	3	$23	52	26	+26	open	—	06-07 12:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	8	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-03 09:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	8	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-03 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	9	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-03 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	3	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	3	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	05-23 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-24 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	4	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-24 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-31 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-30 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-30 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	4	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-30 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	5	$16	20	0	+20	open	—	05-31 09:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 04:00:34	btc updown 5m 1780977900	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x0af93d…
06-09 03:54:24	btc updown 5m 1780977600	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xfc6ae1…
06-09 03:50:48	btc updown 5m 1780977300	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5f4528…
06-09 03:49:55	btc updown 5m 1780977000	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x10e4fe…
06-08 12:13:01	btc updown 5m 1780920900	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf2e2d9…
06-08 11:35:25	btc updown 5m 1780918800	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x3e4558…
06-08 11:12:13	btc updown 5m 1780917000	Up	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x451daf…
06-08 11:09:46	btc updown 5m 1780917300	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x8a805e…
06-08 11:08:13	btc updown 5m 1780917000	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1ce77a…
06-08 10:47:18	btc updown 5m 1780915800	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xe08e98…
06-07 12:24:04	btc updown 5m 1780834800	Down	SELL	35	79¢	$28	0xd582a4…
06-07 12:21:49	btc updown 5m 1780834800	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc199d4…
06-07 12:15:58	btc updown 5m 1780834800	Down	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0xaeeeb2…
06-07 12:11:28	btc updown 5m 1780834200	Up	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0x4667e8…
06-07 12:10:46	btc updown 5m 1780834200	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x53ad1e…
06-07 12:08:57	btc updown 5m 1780834200	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x891aaf…
06-07 11:58:28	btc updown 5m 1780833600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x876ccd…
06-07 11:58:21	btc updown 5m 1780833600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd2d32b…
06-07 11:58:12	btc updown 5m 1780833600	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x82c0ff…
06-07 11:57:48	btc updown 5m 1780833600	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x1ef364…
06-05 20:08:33	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x1a672e…
06-05 13:13:19	will xagusd dip to 66 in june 2026	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x78bdc6…
06-05 13:13:06	will xagusd dip to 64 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x55b334…
06-04 15:02:43	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4d1d8c…
06-04 14:57:07	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x8fcc7d…
06-03 14:59:39	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x0b1fee…
06-02 11:13:33	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x7e6d0d…
05-31 11:14:42	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x9225fe…
05-31 11:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf966ea…
05-31 11:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdcc820…
05-31 10:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x7cac4c…
05-31 10:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xdc4f15…
05-31 10:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x9c1687…
05-31 10:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xb4c013…
05-31 10:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x554efc…
05-31 10:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xa3f5a4…
05-31 10:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x53f2e5…
05-31 10:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd47ce1…
05-31 10:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x41d348…
05-31 10:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe60624…
05-31 10:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x866ded…
05-31 10:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x6bef75…
05-31 10:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd2c593…
05-31 10:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x2f4fe3…
05-31 10:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x253116…
05-31 10:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x235df2…
05-31 10:02:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x584a26…
05-31 10:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x318f56…
05-31 09:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x994244…
05-31 09:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x31a3df…
05-31 09:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfaec30…
05-31 09:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xa3d923…
05-31 09:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x96f820…
05-31 09:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x92b73a…
05-31 09:38:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x90f99f…
05-31 09:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x7980ed…
05-31 09:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x48f8f3…
05-31 09:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x2e09b4…
05-31 09:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x6730df…
05-31 09:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x0529e5…
05-31 09:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf63f7b…
05-31 09:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x378a54…
05-31 08:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xf102b4…
05-31 08:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x75f0f1…
05-31 08:42:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xaf3fcf…
05-31 08:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x8f6abb…
05-31 08:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x0d1580…
05-31 08:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xa76efe…
05-31 08:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x67d0d7…
05-31 08:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x3a0935…
05-31 08:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x6dc1eb…
05-31 08:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x5f9d3a…
05-31 08:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x691041…
05-31 08:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf498b3…
05-31 07:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x69acde…
05-31 07:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4917a2…
05-31 07:46:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x08fbda…
05-31 07:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8b6f5f…
05-31 07:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x672f6e…
05-31 07:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x57b2a5…
05-31 07:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4cfb67…
05-31 07:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x4bbd5c…
05-31 07:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x80f12e…
05-31 07:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x35be57…
05-31 07:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xcca074…
05-31 07:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x63af7b…
05-31 07:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7eb5f7…
05-31 07:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xf96c20…
05-31 07:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xa15ac9…
05-31 07:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x2502d5…
05-31 07:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x88f5e2…
05-31 06:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x7ae3f1…
05-31 06:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x4c9da5…
05-31 06:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xa7d6d2…
05-31 06:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x1077a9…
05-31 06:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x50f2d4…
05-31 06:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xce5fb1…
05-31 06:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xbf722d…
05-31 06:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$4	0x0bb82f…
05-31 06:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc53dcb…