Past-Flung — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

81.2%

Resolved

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$3.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$32

1 position

First seen

2026-04-18

last 06-16 14:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% — —

Crypto

21% 60% +$2

Tech

17% — —

Other

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes		+118	$30	28¢	$32	+$2	06-16 14:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	9	$645	1,400	96	+1,304	open	—	05-22 21:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	5	$317	590	0	+590	open	—	04-28 02:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$243	196	196	+0	open	—	05-03 15:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	9	$238	264	22	+241	open	—	04-26 03:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$210	131	131	+0	open	—	04-21 20:27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	6	$161	150	150	+0	open	—	04-26 04:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$138	82	82	+0	open	—	04-26 04:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$76	61	61	+0	open	—	04-29 17:45
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	3	$59	91	91	+0	open	—	04-21 20:26
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$59	47	47	+0	open	—	04-23 12:30
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$55	86	86	+0	open	—	04-22 23:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$49	44	44	+0	open	—	04-28 22:21
btc updown 5m 1776967800	4	$45	33	32	+1	open	—	04-23 18:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$43	164	164	+0	open	—	04-23 12:43
btc updown 5m 1776969000	6	$42	55	38	+17	open	—	04-23 18:34
btc updown 5m 1776968400	5	$41	46	35	+11	open	—	04-23 18:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$30	118	0	+118	open	—	06-16 14:52
btc updown 5m 1776964200	3	$30	34	0	+34	open	—	04-23 17:12
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	3	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	04-26 11:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$28	23	23	+0	open	—	04-22 23:42
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$25	46	46	+0	open	—	04-21 21:18
btc updown 5m 1776966300	2	$24	16	15	+0	open	—	04-23 17:47
btc updown 5m 1776965700	2	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	04-23 17:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	2	$24	72	72	+0	open	—	04-23 01:07
btc updown 5m 1776969600	5	$23	21	20	+1	open	—	04-23 18:43
btc updown 5m 1776968700	2	$23	37	0	+37	open	—	04-23 18:28
btc updown 5m 1776966900	2	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	04-23 17:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$21	52	52	+0	open	—	04-23 12:43
btc updown 5m 1776969300	5	$21	20	9	+11	open	—	04-23 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	5	$20	17	17	+0	open	—	04-29 19:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 14:52:17	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	118	25¢	$30	0xc8b697…
06-16 14:48:14	btc updown 5m 1781621100	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc8ee05…
05-22 21:29:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	55	66¢	$36	0x1b5aae…
05-18 19:16:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	441	39¢	$172	0x766cb7…
05-18 16:56:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	380	50¢	$190	0x948356…
05-18 16:54:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	284	50¢	$141	0xff8be0…
05-13 02:48:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	144	39¢	$56	0xfd1d1f…
05-09 22:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xcb6e25…
05-09 22:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xc9ea79…
05-07 22:30:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	34¢	$19	0x0e5c61…
05-07 22:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xf87ab2…
05-07 22:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xdd16a5…
05-07 22:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x29e7ed…
05-07 22:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x06dbce…
05-07 22:17:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	42	34¢	$14	0x6aa740…
05-07 13:44:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xc4cb37…
05-07 13:42:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0x2c962b…
05-07 13:41:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0x60c4db…
05-03 15:35:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	107	79¢	$85	0x860c05…
05-01 02:38:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x5639b2…
04-29 19:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x335c43…
04-29 19:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x97b2d1…
04-29 19:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xad286f…
04-29 19:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x698892…
04-29 19:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x62dbc1…
04-29 19:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9545cc…
04-29 19:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	6	39¢	$3	0xa2f41b…
04-29 19:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd9f7b4…
04-29 19:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xac5a77…
04-29 19:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0x7c3bce…
04-29 19:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x60eae8…
04-29 18:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x7e3d1f…
04-29 18:56:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x56c94a…
04-29 17:45:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	61	73¢	$45	0x5b7338…
04-28 23:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xefff41…
04-28 23:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xfa2714…
04-28 23:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfccaa5…
04-28 23:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xb3bbab…
04-28 23:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x9d0df2…
04-28 23:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc44de5…
04-28 23:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	80¢	$7	0x4c910a…
04-28 23:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xe6ad1d…
04-28 22:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x89d062…
04-28 22:55:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0xc5c8db…
04-28 22:21:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x41c4e0…
04-28 02:22:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xbc3259…
04-27 03:41:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x014bb3…
04-27 03:39:24	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x7ef6d8…
04-26 16:47:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0xe0f949…
04-26 16:45:24	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xbf2db5…
04-26 16:42:22	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	17	31¢	$5	0xee4c51…
04-26 11:56:02	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	Yes	SELL	23	70¢	$16	0x8a1f71…
04-26 04:08:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	70¢	$53	0xe74860…
04-26 04:07:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$53	0xae9723…
04-26 04:03:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	52¢	$65	0xd3e187…
04-26 04:02:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	101	64¢	$65	0x1df126…
04-26 03:55:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0x0b27f6…
04-26 03:53:34	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xf5e0ac…
04-26 03:31:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	237	51¢	$120	0xc8f800…
04-26 03:30:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	91¢	$114	0x7391a3…
04-23 18:54:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0x18f9be…
04-23 18:52:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0xb24bd0…
04-23 18:49:12	btc updown 5m 1776969900	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xbf5f83…
04-23 18:48:38	btc updown 5m 1776969900	Down	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0xdc152c…
04-23 18:45:34	btc updown 5m 1776969900	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xec5541…
04-23 18:43:40	btc updown 5m 1776969600	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xa28c27…
04-23 18:43:40	btc updown 5m 1776969600	Up	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x95d8ab…
04-23 18:43:40	btc updown 5m 1776969600	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x908d72…
04-23 18:43:40	btc updown 5m 1776969600	Up	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x86fc6b…
04-23 18:40:38	btc updown 5m 1776969600	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb51411…
04-23 18:38:56	btc updown 5m 1776969300	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x537ef3…
04-23 18:36:46	btc updown 5m 1776969300	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xa0974e…
04-23 18:36:46	btc updown 5m 1776969300	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x6c1cc8…
04-23 18:36:46	btc updown 5m 1776969300	Up	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x417496…
04-23 18:35:48	btc updown 5m 1776969300	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8d7abf…
04-23 18:34:06	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf2db4b…
04-23 18:33:42	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x5e7b64…
04-23 18:32:54	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Up	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x5ccbcf…
04-23 18:31:46	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x10b6ce…
04-23 18:31:36	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Down	SELL	26	13¢	$3	0xeb6631…
04-23 18:30:54	btc updown 5m 1776969000	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x447631…
04-23 18:28:24	btc updown 5m 1776968700	Down	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xec31ea…
04-23 18:26:14	btc updown 5m 1776968700	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x536563…
04-23 18:23:40	btc updown 5m 1776968400	Up	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x4ff5fd…
04-23 18:23:22	btc updown 5m 1776968400	Down	SELL	16	34¢	$6	0x729fb2…
04-23 18:21:58	btc updown 5m 1776968400	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xb06547…
04-23 18:21:46	btc updown 5m 1776968400	Up	SELL	18	46¢	$8	0x6155f5…
04-23 18:20:28	btc updown 5m 1776968400	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xa1f495…
04-23 18:15:20	btc updown 5m 1776968100	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xf4c8a0…
04-23 18:14:38	btc updown 5m 1776967800	Up	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x34cd92…
04-23 18:13:04	btc updown 5m 1776967800	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x6540e1…
04-23 18:11:16	btc updown 5m 1776967800	Up	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0x6bc6ad…
04-23 18:10:18	btc updown 5m 1776967800	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xda4fc1…
04-23 18:06:44	btc updown 5m 1776967500	Up	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xf51074…
04-23 18:05:38	btc updown 5m 1776967500	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x610fb0…
04-23 18:00:32	btc updown 5m 1776967200	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x724838…
04-23 17:58:38	btc updown 5m 1776966900	Up	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xa37467…
04-23 17:55:52	btc updown 5m 1776966900	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xdae54d…
04-23 17:50:32	btc updown 5m 1776966600	Down	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xb7c66a…
04-23 17:47:16	btc updown 5m 1776966300	Down	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x3c7917…