Stark-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$498

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

56.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$17.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$220

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-11

last 10-08 06:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

65% 67% +$527

Politics

35% 43% $0

Crypto

0% 0% -$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	09-30 02:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	22	$2.0K	2,173	2,173	+0	No	+$22	04-18 08:36
fif nir gui 2026 06 04 spread away 1pt5	3	$1.1K	793	400	+393	Northern Ireland	+$28	06-04 04:51
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?	2	$781	422	422	+0	No	-$4	06-06 07:59
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	3	$778	432	432	+0	open	—	06-07 06:13
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30?	2	$750	412	412	+0	No	+$0	06-08 07:25
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	2	$702	377	377	+0	No	-$28	05-09 06:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	2	$685	356	356	+0	No	+$0	08-13 06:42
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	2	$678	364	364	+0	No	-$7	08-13 09:38
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$677	364	364	+0	open	—	06-03 08:33
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	2	$664	382	382	+0	open	—	05-05 05:28
us x cuba economic deal by july 31 2026	2	$652	360	360	+0	No	-$4	06-30 05:31
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	2	$645	345	345	+0	open	—	05-11 09:22
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	2	$632	357	357	+0	No	-$11	06-02 06:16
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	2	$606	311	311	+0	No	+$2	05-09 01:34
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	1	$596	613	0	+613	RB Leipzig	+$17	05-09 07:40
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	2	$596	309	309	+0	No	-$1	05-06 07:36
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31?	3	$565	347	347	+0	No	-$117	05-10 07:27
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5)	1	$502	508	0	+508	FCSB	+$6	05-11 10:07
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	1	$492	498	0	+498	Aston Villa FC	+$6	05-10 08:09
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	4	$400	500	500	+0	Yes	$0	03-17 08:29
dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	1	$390	411	0	+411	No	+$21	06-08 07:27
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5	1	$387	410	0	+410	Over	+$23	06-07 06:19
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50?	2	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$1	03-16 06:45
lol hrts bar 2026 06 03 game1 both teams slay baron	1	$338	368	0	+368	No	+$29	06-03 08:38
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	1	$311	321	0	+321	National Bank of Egypt Club	+$10	05-07 06:09
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	1	$311	339	0	+339	Wales	+$28	06-02 06:43
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	1	$297	301	0	+301	Beijing Guoan FC	+$4	05-06 09:00
val ae4 trn 2026 03 17	2	$223	620	0	+620	TrinitY	+$397	03-17 09:04
val bbb lyon 2026 03 11	1	$204	240	0	+240	LYON	+$36	03-11 08:33
val oas spe 2026 03 16	1	$198	310	0	+310	Sharper Esport	+$112	03-16 07:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 06:49:49	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x014996…
09-30 02:50:00	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xed4fdd…
08-13 09:38:55	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	No	SELL	364	92¢	$335	0x9e9b92…
08-13 06:45:45	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	No	BUY	364	94¢	$343	0x68810a…
08-13 06:42:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	SELL	356	96¢	$342	0x15179f…
08-13 05:25:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	356	96¢	$342	0xe94c50…
06-30 05:31:53	us x cuba economic deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	360	90¢	$324	0x08dace…
06-30 03:10:52	us x cuba economic deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	360	91¢	$328	0x4bca7b…
06-08 07:27:34	dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	No	BUY	411	95¢	$390	0x6793fc…
06-08 07:25:19	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30?	No	SELL	412	91¢	$375	0x6a4f07…
06-08 05:19:13	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30?	No	BUY	412	91¢	$375	0x784230…
06-07 06:19:03	Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	410	94¢	$387	0x64e96b…
06-07 06:13:00	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	432	90¢	$389	0x63269c…
06-07 03:09:40	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x764f6b…
06-07 03:09:16	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	390	90¢	$351	0x69867c…
06-06 07:59:03	Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	422	92¢	$388	0xb9d6bc…
06-06 05:44:12	Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	422	93¢	$392	0xee73c3…
06-04 04:51:22	fif nir gui 2026 06 04 spread away 1pt5	Northern Ireland	BUY	393	91¢	$358	0x90cbe5…
06-04 04:49:06	fif nir gui 2026 06 04 spread away 1pt5	Northern Ireland	SELL	400	90¢	$359	0x453d8a…
06-04 04:48:51	fif nir gui 2026 06 04 spread away 1pt5	Northern Ireland	BUY	400	92¢	$366	0x2e42f0…
06-03 08:38:17	lol hrts bar 2026 06 03 game1 both teams slay baron	No	BUY	368	92¢	$338	0x84ce9e…
06-03 08:33:52	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	364	93¢	$339	0x14b273…
06-03 07:09:00	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	364	93¢	$339	0x426ec9…
06-02 06:43:10	Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Wales	BUY	339	92¢	$311	0x952230…
06-02 06:16:55	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	No	SELL	357	87¢	$311	0xf64bf6…
06-02 05:02:47	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	No	BUY	357	90¢	$321	0xb04e69…
05-11 10:07:04	Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5)	FCSB	BUY	508	99¢	$502	0x495741…
05-11 09:22:29	Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	SELL	345	94¢	$324	0x97c552…
05-11 07:41:14	Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	BUY	345	93¢	$321	0x3bf052…
05-10 08:09:34	Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	498	99¢	$492	0x67fb1a…
05-10 07:27:10	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31?	No	SELL	220	45¢	$99	0x084bae…
05-10 07:26:33	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31?	No	SELL	127	98¢	$125	0x06e4a1…
05-10 05:38:31	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	347	98¢	$341	0x3c981b…
05-09 07:40:53	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	613	97¢	$596	0xc5f7eb…
05-09 06:54:36	Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	377	89¢	$337	0x8fe4b6…
05-09 05:24:07	Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	377	97¢	$365	0xefd30e…
05-09 01:34:00	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	311	98¢	$304	0x6b9600…
05-07 06:09:03	Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	National Bank of Egypt Club	BUY	321	97¢	$311	0x77620d…
05-07 02:13:39	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	311	97¢	$302	0x8bab0d…
05-06 09:00:04	Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	Beijing Guoan FC	BUY	301	99¢	$297	0x9d6a77…
05-06 07:36:38	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	No	SELL	309	96¢	$298	0x81c3e1…
05-06 06:03:52	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	No	BUY	309	97¢	$299	0x4b76b1…
05-05 06:22:22	Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)	Henan FC	BUY	332	4¢	$14	0xc2e22d…
05-05 06:22:22	Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)	Henan FC	BUY	368	4¢	$15	0xbe2a57…
05-05 05:28:08	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	No	SELL	382	86¢	$328	0xe8483e…
05-05 05:05:16	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	No	BUY	382	88¢	$336	0x51812e…
04-18 08:36:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	47¢	$71	0x37c7bb…
04-18 08:35:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	47¢	$89	0x7e9c8a…
04-18 08:29:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0x9bddc3…
04-18 08:29:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0x9795f4…
04-18 08:25:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x9f84b2…
04-18 08:21:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x77eda2…
04-18 08:20:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	47¢	$44	0xe113c4…
04-18 08:18:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x3e674a…
04-18 08:15:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	47¢	$50	0xbe282e…
04-18 08:09:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x798740…
04-18 08:06:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	47¢	$40	0x5cfe1e…
04-18 08:04:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x0c65bc…
04-18 07:50:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	47¢	$11	0xd9f424…
04-18 07:46:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xe0f902…
04-18 07:42:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	47¢	$20	0xcc033e…
04-18 07:40:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x43cfcd…
04-18 07:35:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	278	47¢	$131	0xe0b873…
04-18 07:24:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0x8de062…
04-18 07:24:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0x4e9844…
04-18 07:23:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x4b53cd…
04-18 07:23:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,021	47¢	$480	0x390435…
04-18 04:58:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,173	46¢	$1,000	0x5b9dea…
03-17 09:04:05	val ae4 trn 2026 03 17	TrinitY	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0x8c6087…
03-17 09:04:03	val ae4 trn 2026 03 17	TrinitY	BUY	320	36¢	$115	0x0b660e…
03-17 08:29:55	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	300	40¢	$120	0xdca010…
03-17 08:29:55	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x858f6c…
03-17 07:15:11	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	251	40¢	$100	0xa74962…
03-17 07:15:09	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0x9ffa25…
03-16 07:17:03	val oas spe 2026 03 16	Sharper Esport	BUY	310	64¢	$198	0x8567db…
03-16 06:45:29	Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x7f9729…
03-16 05:42:35	Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xb7e30c…
03-12 11:11:43	wttwom liu wang 2026 03 12	Liu	BUY	260	10¢	$26	0xecc341…
03-12 11:11:41	wttwom liu wang 2026 03 12	Liu	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x72881e…
03-11 08:33:43	val bbb lyon 2026 03 11	LYON	BUY	240	85¢	$204	0x674e3c…