Few-Refusal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.89K

Unrealized P&L

+$476

Hit rate

73.2%

Resolved

278

Trades

5,392

lifetime

Volume

$3.03M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$562

Open exposure

$31.5K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Politics

67% 59% -$1,384

Other

31% 60% +$4,517

Tech

1% 100% +$12

Sports

1% 55% +$747

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+19,237	$16,998	90¢	$17.4K	+$412	10-23 05:50
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	+12,593	$11,339	94¢	$11.8K	+$498	10-29 17:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+4,381	$1,592	34¢	$1.5K	-$125	11-01 16:12
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-591	-$1,030	98¢	$-581	+$449	10-07 00:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+2,002	$210	6¢	$120	-$90	10-25 11:47
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	+1,637	$581	6¢	$98	-$483	10-13 07:24
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+0	$184	62¢	$0	-$184	09-03 05:28
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-0	$1	97¢	$-0	-$1	05-18 23:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	174	$541.9K	280,986	267,284	+13,702	No	+$562	03-27 19:04
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	217	$144.1K	73,073	78,175	-5,101	No	+$1,796	02-21 03:24
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	17	$131.2K	68,054	65,677	+2,377	No	+$12	05-01 05:58
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	177	$114.2K	64,231	55,245	+8,986	No	-$204	02-27 19:51
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	32	$109.6K	54,159	56,788	-2,628	No	-$135	02-18 19:24
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	55	$106.1K	53,054	54,054	-1,000	No	+$81	02-17 16:10
Trump out as President by April 30?	16	$89.3K	45,000	45,000	+0	No	+$0	04-21 15:21
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	209	$74.7K	38,372	48,000	-9,628	No	-$392	03-27 23:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	122	$69.9K	51,407	37,026	+14,381	No	-$1,497	03-31 16:58
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	128	$64.3K	26,530	39,509	-12,979	No	+$182	02-26 07:39
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	50	$63.5K	55,000	55,000	+0	Yes	-$6,199	06-07 19:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	10	$59.5K	30,002	30,002	+0	No	+$1	04-24 15:27
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	66	$58.7K	28,891	30,891	-2,000	No	+$461	02-25 16:17
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	150	$54.5K	30,950	32,281	-1,331	No	+$1,712	03-09 19:24
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	39	$51.0K	25,780	26,045	-265	No	+$776	02-25 03:15
Netanyahu out by April 30?	52	$46.1K	23,000	25,000	-2,000	No	-$38	03-29 21:11
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	165	$44.9K	32,148	33,094	-947	Yes	-$2,369	02-27 10:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	23	$38.7K	19,858	20,001	-143	No	+$888	03-05 08:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	31	$38.3K	17,799	21,448	-3,649	No	+$254	04-15 17:33
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	56	$37.9K	31,584	6,584	+25,000	No	+$252	03-02 21:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	6	$36.9K	19,402	19,402	+0	No	+$0	05-17 12:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	21	$36.8K	19,505	20,505	-1,000	Yes	+$905	04-02 13:41
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	37	$35.4K	29,181	8,172	+21,009	No	+$849	02-12 09:15
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	8	$29.7K	15,067	15,067	+0	No	+$305	06-06 09:11
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	149	$29.4K	22,500	22,500	+0	Yes	+$110	04-11 23:18
Iran leadership change by March 13?	23	$27.1K	12,337	15,990	-3,653	No	+$1,146	03-14 08:07
epl tot mac 2026 02 01 tot	43	$24.8K	10,547	14,702	-4,155	No	+$256	02-01 18:29
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	10	$23.5K	7,699	15,939	-8,240	No	+$145	02-23 04:10
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	14	$21.7K	12,507	12,507	+0	No	-$200	07-25 18:38
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	23	$21.5K	11,076	11,076	+0	No	+$33	03-27 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 22:32:48	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	594	74¢	$439	0x2703b5…
11-02 15:08:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	67¢	$671	0xf29ff3…
11-01 18:34:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	73¢	$730	0x0960e8…
11-01 16:12:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x29494b…
10-30 00:15:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	990	33¢	$323	0xae0214…
10-30 00:15:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	881	47¢	$414	0x2ba677…
10-30 00:07:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	77¢	$308	0x07cd75…
10-30 00:04:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x7f9026…
10-29 23:59:25	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	SELL	11,404	76¢	$8,667	0x62ba56…
10-29 23:33:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x1723cc…
10-29 23:33:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x3e87c3…
10-29 23:26:42	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	SELL	544	76¢	$414	0xf3ba16…
10-29 23:24:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xc09d0b…
10-29 23:22:45	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	SELL	65	77¢	$50	0x4dfbee…
10-29 23:12:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x8366cc…
10-29 23:03:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	209	58¢	$121	0x6f06c9…
10-29 23:03:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x8a8fe6…
10-29 23:02:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	78	50¢	$39	0x243a30…
10-29 17:49:16	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xeba512…
10-29 17:16:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x425a57…
10-29 17:16:14	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	12,000	76¢	$9,120	0x994039…
10-29 16:24:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x3a0552…
10-29 10:43:31	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x5fec65…
10-29 08:50:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	154	35¢	$54	0x6ba128…
10-29 08:09:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	294	35¢	$103	0x292161…
10-29 06:05:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	141	35¢	$49	0xa0cf2a…
10-29 05:10:29	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	84¢	$58	0xeca3bf…
10-29 05:10:28	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	84¢	$48	0x29fb6b…
10-28 23:22:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	536	78¢	$418	0xe3d551…
10-28 23:22:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	69	78¢	$54	0x55fb72…
10-28 23:03:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	930	77¢	$716	0xf4fab8…
10-28 22:08:49	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xdc23e1…
10-28 22:08:13	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x087c89…
10-28 22:06:59	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	230	70¢	$161	0x122aa0…
10-28 21:48:52	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x15ef5e…
10-28 21:24:19	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x8832a9…
10-28 21:22:41	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	73¢	$24	0x79d306…
10-28 18:19:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	72	72¢	$52	0xf14162…
10-28 16:57:08	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0xcad320…
10-28 16:20:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x77e00c…
10-28 16:12:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x4ec069…
10-28 14:55:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xf233e1…
10-28 14:20:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	71	72¢	$51	0x849606…
10-28 13:54:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xcf8315…
10-28 13:43:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x764eef…
10-28 13:39:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf2daf7…
10-28 13:35:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0x00e328…
10-28 10:43:31	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3a1a2a…
10-28 08:37:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x4b972e…
10-28 06:08:20	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0xfca5cd…
10-28 05:50:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	84¢	$7	0x550ae0…
10-27 22:43:53	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc2b7eb…
10-27 22:39:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0x6a9f06…
10-27 22:31:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x609914…
10-27 16:22:36	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xcf18b1…
10-27 16:18:11	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	124	79¢	$98	0xb5b95b…
10-27 16:08:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	340	73¢	$248	0xbde9f4…
10-27 16:08:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0x26e614…
10-27 07:44:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	250	67¢	$167	0x14fee9…
10-26 11:30:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0xbe1a93…
10-26 10:06:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	35¢	$30	0x83e914…
10-25 16:32:48	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	72¢	$360	0xc00e99…
10-25 16:28:20	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	70¢	$50	0x3f8aad…
10-25 14:46:59	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0x8fac5c…
10-25 14:46:29	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x2b7a8a…
10-25 13:59:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3cc8e6…
10-25 13:46:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	76¢	$177	0x47fbe0…
10-25 13:04:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	76¢	$63	0x573d77…
10-25 13:04:02	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	76¢	$63	0x38a936…
10-25 12:49:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x5a627f…
10-25 11:47:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x704a13…
10-25 11:44:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	76¢	$45	0x3240cb…
10-23 21:20:45	Pistons vs. 76ers	Pistons	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0x0dff52…
10-23 19:27:23	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	344	89¢	$306	0x8d0b69…
10-23 18:46:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	35¢	$39	0xca5ebb…
10-23 18:46:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	278	35¢	$97	0xe8b035…
10-23 18:46:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	413	36¢	$149	0xcadf60…
10-23 18:46:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	587	36¢	$211	0x6134d5…
10-23 13:52:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xa99531…
10-23 13:52:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x3c8b8a…
10-23 12:56:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xbbcce3…
10-23 05:50:42	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0x8f9465…
10-23 00:44:02	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x29b640…
10-22 20:31:42	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7f7b1c…
10-22 20:18:59	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$3	0xd90f04…
10-22 20:18:59	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xc16fa3…
10-22 20:08:18	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0xda8b0a…
10-22 19:59:18	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x08dace…
10-22 15:53:05	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xaaa25b…
10-22 14:05:44	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xe18807…
10-22 14:05:44	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x219d64…
10-22 14:05:42	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x1f8977…
10-22 08:55:44	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xe1ec96…
10-22 07:13:17	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0xabf54e…
10-22 05:45:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	118	90¢	$106	0xd8c569…
10-22 03:39:54	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x6100f7…
10-21 23:12:11	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	47	90¢	$42	0xaba29f…
10-21 22:43:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	210	90¢	$189	0x376d2e…
10-21 22:38:42	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa27450…
10-21 20:43:21	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	92¢	$110	0x536054…