Exciting-Flour — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$936

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

10,393

Trades

26,533

lifetime

Volume

$80.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-26 18:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 201 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 73% -$772

Other

2% 68% -$189

Politics

0% 86% +$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 183 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	32	$185	163	122	+41	Up	+$61	04-28 20:00
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	18	$160	117	117	+0	Yes	$0	10-26 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	34	$121	102	91	+12	Down	+$34	04-28 19:10
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	13	$113	91	91	+0	Yes	+$3	10-26 01:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 21:15 UTC	8	$107	170	49	+121	Up	-$77	01-16 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	16	$103	58	50	+8	Up	+$4	04-28 19:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 13:25 UTC	11	$97	75	74	+1	Up	+$16	02-27 13:29
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	9	$96	56	56	+0	Yes	+$16	10-26 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	12	$95	74	56	+18	Up	+$18	04-28 20:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:50 UTC	27	$94	105	67	+37	Up	+$7	02-25 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 17:35 UTC	23	$92	96	75	+21	Down	-$12	03-01 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	4	$91	73	73	+0	Down	-$4	05-11 14:43
Will OFI win on 2026-09-02?	10	$91	47	47	+0	No	+$1	09-02 18:41
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 19:00 UTC	3	$90	115	0	+115	Up	+$25	01-19 19:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:30 UTC	33	$89	64	61	+3	Down	+$26	02-16 04:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 13:40 UTC	13	$89	141	104	+37	Up	-$15	02-28 13:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 15:20 UTC	10	$85	64	63	+1	Up	-$3	06-30 15:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 18:15 UTC	4	$80	98	0	+98	Down	+$18	01-19 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	8	$79	51	34	+17	Up	+$1	04-28 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	13	$78	56	44	+12	Down	+$8	04-28 13:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 17:30 UTC	21	$78	65	58	+7	Up	+$6	03-01 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	21	$77	94	51	+43	Down	-$23	04-28 22:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 02:10 UTC	7	$76	51	51	+0	Down	+$6	06-29 02:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 22:00 UTC	12	$76	63	62	+1	Down	-$2	02-27 22:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 23:20 UTC	14	$74	62	51	+11	Up	+$2	02-27 23:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 21:35 UTC	12	$74	60	44	+16	Down	+$15	03-12 21:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	4	$72	47	45	+2	Up	+$13	04-27 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 02:00 UTC	5	$71	61	58	+3	Down	+$1	04-24 02:04
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 19:15 UTC	2	$71	142	67	+75	Up	-$4	01-19 19:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 14:00 UTC	7	$71	64	64	+0	Down	-$1	06-26 14:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:24:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0x127cc7…
10-26 18:23:44	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x206183…
10-26 16:46:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf14c15…
10-26 16:45:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x88b6c3…
10-26 16:45:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x58cfa2…
10-26 16:45:06	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfb0c30…
10-26 16:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8ace1a…
10-26 15:54:32	Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8a2793…
10-26 15:46:27	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x03c551…
10-26 15:45:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xa60199…
10-26 15:45:21	PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	5	68¢	$4	0x10e8d3…
10-26 15:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x2e4db7…
10-26 15:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	56	27¢	$15	0x2beff7…
10-26 14:47:24	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xac1ed4…
10-26 14:40:09	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfaf1cc…
10-26 14:40:05	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x141d16…
10-26 14:40:05	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0df64c…
10-26 14:40:00	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xecf396…
10-26 14:37:14	PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd96808…
10-26 14:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x73b357…
10-26 14:24:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x6cac3a…
10-26 14:12:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	58	63¢	$36	0x607cf7…
10-26 13:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x886eb7…
10-26 13:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xd77861…
10-26 13:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7f60c4…
10-26 13:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xca98fb…
10-26 12:28:12	Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	GamerLegion	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x322665…
10-26 12:21:53	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0xbfce8c…
10-26 12:21:39	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x99e43b…
10-26 10:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x499042…
10-26 09:29:41	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb46605…
10-26 09:28:44	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x85f3e7…
10-26 09:28:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x38cf0b…
10-26 09:17:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x72308b…
10-26 09:17:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x2fa395…
10-26 09:16:48	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x7a6393…
10-26 09:16:47	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xf698f5…
10-26 09:16:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xa80ef3…
10-26 09:16:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x722af5…
10-26 09:15:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xba0a08…
10-26 09:15:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8bce06…
10-26 09:15:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8b9ab2…
10-26 09:15:48	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x770cf4…
10-26 09:15:45	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x195a10…
10-26 09:13:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x460ed8…
10-26 09:13:48	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x65d8f8…
10-26 09:13:48	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x0f862b…
10-26 09:06:39	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8f23c1…
10-26 09:06:33	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xa877d9…
10-26 09:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb66446…
10-26 08:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x90f132…
10-26 08:38:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xed03ed…
10-26 08:38:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x311a7d…
10-26 08:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xcdb3aa…
10-26 08:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xb2f781…
10-26 08:16:02	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9bf4db…
10-26 08:15:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf64d7f…
10-26 08:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x29807c…
10-26 08:15:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xa48cd1…
10-26 08:06:33	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x6a8651…
10-26 08:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x75db47…
10-26 08:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x5e610b…
10-26 07:37:14	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x2bd93a…
10-26 06:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb7a27f…
10-26 06:32:53	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf8b0fd…
10-26 05:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xdc9d69…
10-26 04:54:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6d0b82…
10-26 04:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x5cb1ad…
10-26 04:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x9602e7…
10-26 04:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x951838…
10-26 04:16:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x66ad7d…
10-26 04:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x5bf157…
10-26 03:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xea8055…
10-26 03:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0978d3…
10-26 03:39:59	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x99082e…
10-26 01:50:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc7d4a7…
10-26 01:36:35	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x7df247…
10-26 01:36:24	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xa25698…
10-25 23:56:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0cfd2c…
10-25 23:52:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8cf6c6…
10-25 23:50:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4b1450…
10-25 23:50:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe2ec45…
10-25 23:48:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x965d5e…
10-25 23:48:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6c5b2a…
10-25 23:47:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc0b6ed…
10-25 23:46:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xbbff0c…
10-25 23:45:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x014098…
10-25 23:44:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x50797c…
10-25 23:44:26	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x0bd0b4…
10-25 23:44:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xe6aeef…
10-25 23:40:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc67d01…
10-25 23:38:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x21f080…
10-25 23:38:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x315fea…
10-25 23:38:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0f37b1…
10-25 23:38:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7fd151…
10-25 23:38:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x11bad5…
10-25 23:13:18	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x169dd5…
10-25 23:09:21	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x32fef8…
10-25 23:07:05	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xa77372…
10-25 23:07:05	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0ca1a9…