Single-Air — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.52K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.78K

Hit rate

81.9%

Resolved

321

Trades

5,123

lifetime

Volume

$4.49M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$876

Open exposure

$37.0K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 04:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Politics

74% 95% -$2,397

Other

23% 93% +$4,386

Tech

3% 94% +$3,117

Sports

1% 100% +$413

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	+10,928	$10,797	99¢	$10.8K	+$27	10-26 07:34
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	+10,703	$7,893	98¢	$10.5K	+$2,649	10-26 07:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+10,000	$9,970	100¢	$10.0K	-$5	10-26 07:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+5,001	$4,736	97¢	$4.9K	+$115	10-26 18:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+861	$860	100¢	$857	-$3	10-27 04:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	97	$258.0K	169,580	90,332	+79,247	No	-$300	01-03 22:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	24	$131.3K	101,773	40,283	+61,489	Yes	-$9,757	03-03 20:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	92	$122.6K	135,757	11,253	+124,504	Yes	-$11,364	04-09 02:07
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	45	$68.6K	49,329	25,107	+24,222	No	+$890	01-31 22:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	57	$57.8K	45,442	34,620	+10,822	No	-$13,681	04-15 21:46
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	62	$57.6K	57,794	147	+57,647	No	+$359	02-06 00:11
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	21	$56.7K	57,202	0	+57,202	No	+$528	02-02 01:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$54.2K	54,347	0	+54,347	Yes	+$115	04-08 08:35
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	15	$52.2K	46,382	6,382	+40,000	No	+$373	02-06 20:18
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	127	$49.8K	61,724	14,901	+46,823	No	+$231	01-27 15:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$47.4K	49,441	0	+49,441	No	+$2,085	03-31 06:04
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	20	$46.1K	46,516	0	+46,516	No	+$371	02-08 15:25
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	26	$43.2K	41,857	2,488	+39,370	No	+$1,004	02-09 22:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	118	$42.5K	46,301	0	+46,301	No	+$3,834	03-31 23:57
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	22	$40.9K	42,123	0	+42,123	No	+$1,189	01-12 04:51
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$39.9K	39,920	0	+39,920	Yes	+$40	03-04 18:43
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	43	$39.7K	40,000	0	+40,000	No	+$250	02-10 21:39
another us government shutdown by february 14	23	$39.3K	39,961	0	+39,961	No	+$619	02-14 22:06
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	31	$39.0K	37,399	2,073	+35,326	No	+$494	02-27 03:38
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	16	$38.3K	38,392	0	+38,392	No	+$119	02-04 00:58
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	13	$38.0K	38,091	0	+38,091	No	+$134	02-02 21:19
will the us next strike iran on february 12 2026 et	2	$37.8K	30,000	8,000	+22,000	No	+$172	02-14 05:25
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	22	$37.2K	37,492	0	+37,492	No	+$255	02-07 15:49
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	23	$36.2K	36,750	0	+36,750	No	+$504	02-25 17:04
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	20	$36.0K	36,414	0	+36,414	No	+$454	02-24 22:38
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$35.2K	35,333	0	+35,333	No	+$177	10-08 07:51
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	15	$34.8K	35,454	0	+35,454	Yes	+$675	02-08 15:32
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	55	$34.4K	35,692	0	+35,692	No	+$1,338	02-20 01:35
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	18	$34.2K	34,406	0	+34,406	No	+$221	02-04 22:55
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	10	$33.3K	28,662	5,100	+23,562	No	+$471	01-27 04:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:01:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	861	100¢	$860	0x77584e…
10-27 02:23:03	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	336	99¢	$333	0x3ef892…
10-27 00:25:30	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	245	96¢	$235	0xf104b5…
10-26 21:45:12	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xc65bb3…
10-26 21:44:24	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x81f8ff…
10-26 21:44:12	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x097bd1…
10-26 19:35:17	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x00ded0…
10-26 19:34:29	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x671d6f…
10-26 18:57:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1,480	95¢	$1,406	0x64bc96…
10-26 18:40:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	2,040	95¢	$1,938	0xc19097…
10-26 18:25:30	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x9e33f6…
10-26 18:24:20	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x3dd679…
10-26 18:13:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x8d08ba…
10-26 17:23:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x2650bd…
10-26 17:15:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x20d5f0…
10-26 17:10:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	833	94¢	$783	0x965b0f…
10-26 17:04:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x011fb3…
10-26 17:02:32	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	366	96¢	$352	0xc6c1be…
10-26 16:30:11	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0x104cea…
10-26 16:21:47	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x063e05…
10-26 16:21:35	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,455	98¢	$2,403	0x3d845f…
10-26 16:19:12	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	1,231	98¢	$1,201	0x90c51c…
10-26 08:05:35	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	216	99¢	$214	0xde8ef8…
10-26 07:34:45	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	927	99¢	$918	0x3724b0…
10-26 07:32:20	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	221	98¢	$216	0xff0c29…
10-26 07:32:09	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeba133…
10-26 07:32:09	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xb7f1c3…
10-26 07:31:59	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0xd253a4…
10-26 07:31:50	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xb6a8f4…
10-26 07:31:42	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	86	98¢	$84	0x5d6b72…
10-26 07:31:36	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xd2d7f9…
10-26 07:31:36	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcbde86…
10-26 07:31:36	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	85	98¢	$83	0x483f0d…
10-26 07:31:30	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd05558…
10-26 07:31:30	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x8e3552…
10-26 07:31:30	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x577bae…
10-26 07:29:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,970	0xa3a0b5…
10-26 07:11:30	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	168	98¢	$165	0x1dcb7e…
10-26 07:07:51	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x793508…
10-26 07:07:51	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	463	98¢	$454	0x0e3050…
10-26 07:06:51	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	BUY	1,265	98¢	$1,238	0x563618…
10-26 06:57:20	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	271	99¢	$268	0x543980…
10-26 06:56:54	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	379	100¢	$378	0x85adaf…
10-26 06:55:18	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	370	97¢	$359	0x8fbf84…
10-26 06:54:29	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,155	99¢	$1,142	0x79b4e9…
10-26 06:53:30	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	168	99¢	$166	0xa2d6ee…
10-26 06:53:29	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xa9d656…
10-25 21:55:18	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	10,000	1¢	$53	0x19e456…
10-25 20:39:30	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	510	98¢	$502	0x48dda1…
10-25 20:39:30	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	235	99¢	$232	0x0b7968…
10-25 20:39:05	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	9,000	99¢	$8,898	0xec7de3…
10-25 16:10:41	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	310	39¢	$121	0xa02105…
10-25 10:55:53	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	1,450	26¢	$377	0x614b05…
10-25 10:54:59	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	171	95¢	$163	0x84d5ad…
10-25 10:54:48	Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0x5df47f…
10-25 06:37:27	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0x5aaffa…
10-25 06:37:27	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4077aa…
10-25 04:04:33	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0xfd28eb…
10-24 22:43:18	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xeafaed…
10-24 22:43:18	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x4572cc…
10-24 22:43:18	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x3a6a05…
10-24 22:38:08	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x2b1f07…
10-24 22:38:08	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	55	6¢	$3	0x12ea6d…
10-24 21:19:32	Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	210	97¢	$204	0xba96f3…
10-24 20:33:24	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	375	99¢	$370	0x364a12…
10-24 13:13:02	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x41d48f…
10-24 04:22:33	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	125	23¢	$29	0x98b2b1…
10-24 04:21:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2,600	23¢	$598	0xf1b8e7…
10-24 04:20:36	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	1,378	22¢	$303	0xbafbb8…
10-24 04:20:24	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5,897	22¢	$1,297	0xde67dd…
10-24 04:19:33	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	10,000	71¢	$7,050	0x0ae735…
10-24 04:06:33	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,274	99¢	$2,252	0x87a3a0…
10-24 04:03:48	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	378	99¢	$375	0x8a2db2…
10-24 00:06:42	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	162	85¢	$137	0xc2a94d…
10-23 20:59:18	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	667	85¢	$567	0x752a7b…
10-23 19:53:39	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	3,046	99¢	$3,018	0xa969be…
10-23 19:52:57	Will Student List – Students Win win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xccced6…
10-23 19:09:47	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	111	12¢	$13	0xab5f8a…
10-23 15:58:35	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	1,653	85¢	$1,405	0x1523c2…
10-23 15:56:47	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	82	85¢	$70	0x4046ba…
10-23 10:06:23	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	54	83¢	$45	0xde2b7b…
10-23 05:43:54	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	687	83¢	$570	0x62e6ad…
10-23 03:20:41	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	449	99¢	$445	0xfb35aa…
10-22 23:20:54	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	335	83¢	$278	0x873285…
10-22 23:20:54	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x2610aa…
10-22 21:41:24	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	540	99¢	$535	0x28f472…
10-22 20:45:53	Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	222	98¢	$216	0xa82cac…
10-22 20:43:12	Will the Student List win less than 30% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x6499d7…
10-22 20:21:23	Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	407	33¢	$134	0x4f6341…
10-22 03:59:02	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xaa5ad7…
10-22 03:57:48	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	286	79¢	$226	0x3d77be…
10-22 03:30:20	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xe2e0ad…
10-22 03:29:03	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x5f3fe2…
10-22 03:28:56	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xe99be3…
10-22 03:27:20	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x31f86d…
10-22 00:56:35	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	500	75¢	$375	0xbd469d…
10-21 16:15:51	Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	407	21¢	$87	0x2847c4…
10-21 14:19:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xc03609…
10-21 14:19:36	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0xd42027…
10-21 14:19:23	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	1,027	99¢	$1,018	0x2a328c…