Single-Air — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$8.62K

Unrealized P&L

+$283

Hit rate

14.7%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

5,219 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$5.69K

$4.60M lifetime

Avg / trade

$882

Open exposure

$5.97K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-07 16:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 150 days

Categories

Politics

74% 92% -$22,954

Other

23% 91% +$2,009

Tech

2% 94% +$3,117

Sports

1% 100% +$413

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No		+5,000	$4,628	98¢	$4.9K	+$280	11-06 04:26
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes		+1,074	$1,061	99¢	$1.1K	+$4	11-07 16:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	97	$258.0K	169,580	90,332	+79,247	No	-$300	01-03 22:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	24	$131.3K	101,773	40,283	+61,489	Yes	-$9,757	03-03 20:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	92	$122.6K	135,757	11,253	+124,504	Yes	-$11,364	04-09 02:07
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	45	$68.6K	49,329	25,107	+24,222	No	+$890	01-31 22:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	57	$57.8K	45,442	34,620	+10,822	No	-$13,681	04-15 21:46
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	62	$57.6K	57,794	147	+57,647	No	+$359	02-06 00:11
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	21	$56.7K	57,202	0	+57,202	No	+$528	02-02 01:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$54.2K	54,347	0	+54,347	Yes	+$115	04-08 08:35
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	15	$52.2K	46,382	6,382	+40,000	No	+$373	02-06 20:18
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	127	$49.8K	61,724	14,901	+46,823	No	+$231	01-27 15:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$47.4K	49,441	0	+49,441	No	+$2,085	03-31 06:04
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	20	$46.1K	46,516	0	+46,516	No	+$371	02-08 15:25
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	26	$43.2K	41,857	2,488	+39,370	No	+$1,004	02-09 22:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	118	$42.5K	46,301	0	+46,301	No	+$3,834	03-31 23:57
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	22	$40.9K	42,123	0	+42,123	No	+$1,189	01-12 04:51
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$39.9K	39,920	0	+39,920	Yes	+$40	03-04 18:43
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	43	$39.7K	40,000	0	+40,000	No	+$250	02-10 21:39
another us government shutdown by february 14	23	$39.3K	39,961	0	+39,961	No	+$619	02-14 22:06
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	31	$39.0K	37,399	2,073	+35,326	No	+$494	02-27 03:38
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	16	$38.3K	38,392	0	+38,392	No	+$119	02-04 00:58
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	13	$38.0K	38,091	0	+38,091	No	+$134	02-02 21:19
will the us next strike iran on february 12 2026 et	2	$37.8K	30,000	8,000	+22,000	No	+$172	02-14 05:25
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	22	$37.2K	37,492	0	+37,492	No	+$255	02-07 15:49
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	23	$36.2K	36,750	0	+36,750	No	+$504	02-25 17:04
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	20	$36.0K	36,414	0	+36,414	No	+$454	02-24 22:38
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$35.2K	35,333	0	+35,333	No	+$177	10-08 07:51
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	15	$34.8K	35,454	0	+35,454	Yes	+$675	02-08 15:32
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	55	$34.4K	35,692	0	+35,692	No	+$1,338	02-20 01:35
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	18	$34.2K	34,406	0	+34,406	No	+$221	02-04 22:55
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	10	$33.3K	28,662	5,100	+23,562	No	+$471	01-27 04:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 16:25:28	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,074	99¢	$1,061	0x6d4df1…
11-06 04:26:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	93¢	$4,628	0xfde336…
11-05 18:51:13	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	780	97¢	$758	0xa02068…
11-05 18:46:00	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	97¢	$104	0xe16d1f…
11-05 18:28:15	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$292	0x420673…
11-05 18:27:52	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,583	97¢	$2,511	0x9092be…
11-05 17:57:54	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	586	97¢	$568	0x6a555f…
11-05 17:51:36	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	647	97¢	$628	0x171481…
11-04 01:14:49	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	938	96¢	$900	0x86dd8f…
11-04 01:14:48	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	186	96¢	$179	0xf5c43d…
11-04 01:14:48	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,176	96¢	$1,129	0x7371a2…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0x9d8195…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x76154c…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x6c026c…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x68751d…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,715	96¢	$1,646	0x45e743…
11-04 01:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x40e8bc…
11-04 01:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,800	96¢	$1,728	0xe66434…
11-04 01:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	88	96¢	$84	0xe1f40a…
11-04 01:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,712	96¢	$1,644	0x534b74…
11-04 01:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	385	96¢	$370	0x39a7ca…
11-04 01:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,800	96¢	$1,728	0x31ca59…
11-04 01:14:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10,000	99¢	$9,902	0x2f5a78…
11-03 05:25:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10,000	95¢	$9,500	0x39bb9e…
11-03 01:04:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	4,023	60¢	$2,429	0x4c0077…
11-03 00:59:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	400	75¢	$300	0xc37230…
11-03 00:56:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	4,433	78¢	$3,436	0x93caa8…
11-03 00:56:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	373	76¢	$285	0x1acf67…
11-03 00:56:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	22	76¢	$17	0x4cb1d1…
11-03 00:56:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$11	0xd3896c…
11-03 00:56:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	90	77¢	$69	0xc4692b…
11-03 00:55:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	32	74¢	$23	0xb23972…
11-03 00:55:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	45	74¢	$33	0x45e062…
11-03 00:54:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x2ce208…
11-03 00:54:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	562	77¢	$436	0x5717fe…
11-03 00:52:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	6,666	23¢	$1,533	0xa047dc…
11-03 00:51:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	2,700	44¢	$1,188	0xb66a7c…
11-01 20:05:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	9,366	96¢	$9,010	0x681e4f…
10-30 21:18:46	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	853	98¢	$835	0xc45fe6…
10-30 21:17:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,157	96¢	$3,040	0xbaef86…
10-30 21:14:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,885	0x6a0318…
10-30 21:01:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10,000	95¢	$9,518	0x222c9e…
10-29 17:49:49	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,870	14¢	$258	0xd2691c…
10-29 17:49:32	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	355	34¢	$121	0xf5cdbb…
10-29 17:48:02	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	535	68¢	$366	0xae01b5…
10-29 17:47:58	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	5,148	90¢	$4,643	0x33b653…
10-29 17:47:01	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	210	94¢	$197	0xd90737…
10-29 17:46:59	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	381	93¢	$355	0x8ea2d1…
10-29 17:46:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xf2e3a9…
10-29 17:46:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xdc05b3…
10-29 17:46:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xcd4a87…
10-29 17:46:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x1d2167…
10-29 17:46:41	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0xfdca31…
10-29 17:46:37	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	113	96¢	$108	0xc7fc09…
10-29 17:46:37	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	SELL	2,756	1¢	$23	0x973e86…
10-29 17:46:32	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,079	7¢	$79	0xa47088…
10-29 17:46:26	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	3,218	6¢	$199	0x3001ef…
10-29 17:46:20	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	9,488	2¢	$196	0xb0f4da…
10-29 17:46:20	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	367	95¢	$349	0x0d7b7e…
10-29 17:46:16	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	619	95¢	$591	0x88f1e6…
10-29 17:44:23	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	433	73¢	$314	0xe03d4a…
10-29 17:43:47	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	429	70¢	$300	0xd7cbd4…
10-29 17:41:44	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	806	88¢	$706	0x670bc0…
10-29 17:39:55	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa67325…
10-29 17:37:04	Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x3ffb68…
10-29 17:31:28	Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	107	99¢	$105	0xe9f283…
10-29 17:31:28	Will the Student List win less than 30% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x4ffd1e…
10-29 17:31:25	Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	517	100¢	$516	0xeec518…
10-29 17:31:25	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	379	97¢	$368	0x6d6ef0…
10-29 17:31:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	SELL	731	97¢	$706	0x4cecb7…
10-29 17:31:22	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	874	98¢	$858	0xd6beb5…
10-29 17:31:20	Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xd46f0b…
10-29 17:31:19	Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	56	97¢	$54	0xbb62e4…
10-29 17:31:16	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xf09c26…
10-29 17:31:14	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	157	98¢	$153	0x723515…
10-29 17:31:14	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Yes	SELL	667	95¢	$633	0x5e2167…
10-29 17:31:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,865	0xa865f1…
10-29 17:31:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	5,001	99¢	$4,962	0xfee013…
10-29 17:31:10	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	782	96¢	$750	0x680d8b…
10-29 17:31:08	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	4,539	99¢	$4,503	0x0d73f9…
10-29 16:52:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x5d6ffe…
10-29 16:52:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	231	98¢	$226	0xc726ae…
10-29 04:51:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,906	0x2f07c6…
10-28 23:49:28	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$88	0x33e89d…
10-28 23:49:17	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$21	0x3fbad2…
10-28 00:34:44	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	350	99¢	$346	0x01feec…
10-28 00:28:50	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0x1910e1…
10-28 00:28:27	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$20	0x3b7841…
10-28 00:28:12	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0x7b85ce…
10-28 00:28:09	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xfe3d86…
10-28 00:28:08	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x771b2d…
10-28 00:26:11	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xa23f76…
10-28 00:25:50	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	217	92¢	$199	0x3e45e9…
10-28 00:24:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	524	99¢	$518	0xd91a0a…
10-28 00:22:11	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xaa1466…
10-28 00:21:56	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	365	91¢	$332	0xfc7a1d…
10-27 04:01:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	861	100¢	$860	0x77584e…
10-27 02:23:03	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	336	99¢	$333	0x3ef892…
10-27 00:25:30	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	245	96¢	$235	0xf104b5…
10-26 21:45:12	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xc65bb3…