Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$67

Unrealized P&L

+$164

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved (90d)

263

Trades (90d)

1,148

1,152 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$15.3K

$15.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$26

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-28

last 10-30 15:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

66% 47% +$121

Politics

30% 44% -$147

Tech

3% 67% +$2

Pop-Culture

1% 29% -$51

Sports

0% 75% +$5

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+24	$14	92¢	$22	+$8	10-28 16:58
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No		+5	-$152	98¢	$5	+$157	10-19 15:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	48	$590	590	562	+29	Yes	+$69	10-18 14:26
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	30	$545	330	330	+0	No	+$30	09-30 16:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	4	$535	277	277	+0	Yes	+$3	10-04 21:59
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?	7	$500	279	278	+1	open	—	10-09 04:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	17	$387	433	126	+307	Up	+$107	10-28 19:39
Romanian PM Bolojan out by September 30?	4	$330	221	221	+0	No	+$100	09-26 19:57
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	11	$309	286	257	+29	Up	+$28	10-20 04:11
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	6	$298	272	272	+0	open	—	09-27 08:32
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12?	5	$288	275	34	+241	Down	+$18	10-12 19:56
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	20	$250	239	234	+5	open	—	10-19 15:18
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	12	$244	325	41	+284	open	—	10-30 15:21
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?	2	$243	200	92	+108	open	—	10-29 07:37
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	5	$234	263	13	+249	No	+$41	09-30 17:27
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	32	$221	416	183	+233	Up	-$67	10-26 14:45
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?	2	$219	290	5	+285	open	—	10-25 15:21
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$217	302	17	+285	Yes	-$170	10-04 20:35
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	9	$213	140	120	+20	Up	+$36	10-21 17:17
Will Centre Party (C) win at least 9% of all valid votes?	3	$207	214	50	+164	No	+$44	09-12 14:29
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	2	$206	208	0	+208	No	+$2	08-29 20:17
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	4	$200	283	0	+283	open	—	10-10 00:32
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	21	$193	288	288	+0	Up	-$77	10-19 11:38
Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	2	$192	215	0	+215	No	+$23	09-14 10:38
will warsh say trump during september press conference 20260909	1	$189	212	0	+212	No	+$23	09-16 19:08
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	1	$188	234	0	+234	Yes	+$46	09-23 21:17
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	10	$186	185	81	+104	Down	+$26	10-23 15:46
Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	9	$184	232	139	+93	Yes	-$47	10-16 21:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	8	$180	289	7	+282	Up	+$111	10-15 18:43
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	7	$174	229	10	+219	No	-$36	08-30 22:08
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	3	$166	231	0	+231	No	+$65	09-24 10:59
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	6	$162	232	76	+157	No	+$79	09-24 14:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:21:28	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	88¢	$56	0xfbeabb…
10-30 15:21:27	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x04f0b7…
10-30 14:35:54	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	89¢	$38	0xc81c91…
10-30 13:56:51	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	54¢	$23	0x52e649…
10-30 10:59:31	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf4c8f3…
10-30 10:10:21	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x2ccfce…
10-30 10:07:40	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	50¢	$52	0x6aed4e…
10-30 09:34:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	190	69¢	$130	0x394c77…
10-30 05:03:31	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x1af6c6…
10-30 00:44:22	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x65ff7a…
10-30 00:01:10	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xbbfcd7…
10-30 00:00:49	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xf50da6…
10-30 00:00:10	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x872a8b…
10-29 23:27:09	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x24ca5f…
10-29 22:34:39	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb846fc…
10-29 20:57:10	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x451b6a…
10-29 20:38:48	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x389e38…
10-29 19:12:01	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xcf57a2…
10-29 17:14:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x206d1f…
10-29 14:44:28	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x8aada0…
10-29 14:41:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x31cc8e…
10-29 13:40:41	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	66	24¢	$16	0xbe1b4a…
10-29 12:31:37	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0xadb1a0…
10-29 10:54:49	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0x88e460…
10-29 07:37:40	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?	No	SELL	92	92¢	$85	0x786024…
10-29 07:35:53	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x9e0d0e…
10-28 19:51:29	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x4cdeee…
10-28 19:39:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	101	85¢	$86	0x2ff9bb…
10-28 19:38:43	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0xf5279f…
10-28 19:38:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	56	84¢	$47	0x0ca7be…
10-28 18:43:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	51	85¢	$43	0x7e96e4…
10-28 18:37:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xede89c…
10-28 18:22:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x0b0ca4…
10-28 18:16:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	81	53¢	$43	0x331412…
10-28 18:07:19	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x8fc40d…
10-28 18:06:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xd1c64c…
10-28 18:00:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x55068b…
10-28 17:34:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	274	4¢	$11	0x01b92c…
10-28 17:25:07	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x0cb632…
10-28 17:11:05	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x6e9723…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	No	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xde198d…
10-28 16:58:44	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xc32bf4…
10-28 16:41:28	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x34dd21…
10-28 16:22:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x063726…
10-28 13:55:46	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xfb0ab5…
10-28 13:01:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	21	67¢	$14	0xf8611e…
10-28 12:21:16	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xf5c22c…
10-28 12:19:37	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x2dbec2…
10-28 10:40:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x2e8652…
10-28 07:51:29	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xd90846…
10-28 05:49:26	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0xad28d0…
10-28 04:51:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x6e55d4…
10-28 03:23:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xe6d889…
10-28 03:13:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xd685af…
10-28 00:18:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	91	52¢	$47	0xeccef5…
10-28 00:07:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x952cfa…
10-27 22:04:14	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	302	31¢	$94	0xe7c4f7…
10-27 21:55:50	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?	No	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x91821d…
10-27 21:44:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	302	4¢	$12	0x711d1e…
10-27 19:46:33	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xf1e318…
10-27 19:15:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x62d138…
10-27 13:38:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x74c26b…
10-27 13:31:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x58b026…
10-27 12:47:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x7fc436…
10-27 12:43:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x706693…
10-27 12:08:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x9734cb…
10-26 22:21:47	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x1d4529…
10-26 21:34:26	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x749fa1…
10-26 19:06:50	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2c351b…
10-26 18:56:53	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x39e573…
10-26 18:39:09	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x3f791d…
10-26 17:53:50	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x2ce10d…
10-26 17:52:59	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	104	9¢	$9	0xc44a97…
10-26 17:37:42	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	34	9¢	$3	0x6a29dc…
10-26 17:28:47	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xb2e619…
10-26 17:26:24	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0xebb841…
10-26 17:22:05	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9c947f…
10-26 16:27:53	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x90d1ce…
10-26 16:14:23	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xf3012b…
10-26 16:06:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	47	41¢	$19	0xdde761…
10-26 15:30:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x42045d…
10-26 15:17:15	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x3e41fe…
10-26 14:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	229	6¢	$15	0x6f6b82…
10-26 14:45:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x80267c…
10-26 14:43:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0xffcfac…
10-26 14:31:44	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x0fb90c…
10-26 14:28:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xf26d62…
10-26 14:15:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x68facd…
10-26 14:05:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb61dff…
10-26 14:05:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x1943e0…
10-26 13:59:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xa71cd2…
10-26 13:52:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x20ef64…
10-26 13:44:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa01d23…
10-26 13:35:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xd29933…
10-26 13:09:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x5e452d…
10-26 13:09:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	88	26¢	$23	0xbbd2d4…
10-26 13:09:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0xa1ea1b…
10-26 13:09:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	114	26¢	$29	0xb85eab…
10-26 13:08:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0x350df4…
10-26 12:18:47	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0xf42246…