Appropriate-Plier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$278

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$15.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$180

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-18 16:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% 0% $-236

Other

15% 0% $-42

Crypto

14% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+129	$119	96¢	$123	+$5	06-17 15:12
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes		+70	$55	81¢	$57	+$1	06-30 15:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	11	$3.1K	4,773	4,273	+500	open	—	06-30 15:17
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	17	$1.7K	2,184	2,184	+0	open	—	07-18 13:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	16	$1.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-18 11:20
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$986	3,653	3,653	+0	open	—	06-17 13:34
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	9	$674	1,100	300	+800	open	—	05-12 07:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$643	699	0	+699	open	—	05-29 08:43
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	1	$598	687	0	+687	open	—	04-04 13:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	14	$551	920	920	+0	open	—	06-30 10:15
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	25	$535	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	06-17 15:11
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	28	$494	3,238	1,976	+1,262	open	—	05-23 07:15
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	11	$464	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	06-17 13:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	10	$439	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	07-18 16:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	16	$410	3,852	2,300	+1,552	open	—	05-12 07:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$370	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-12 07:24
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$370	400	0	+400	open	—	04-10 08:58
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	23	$369	1,971	1,971	+0	open	—	07-18 16:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$292	300	0	+300	open	—	04-04 13:21
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	2	$244	123	123	+0	open	—	03-26 23:17
will nvda dip to 168 in february	4	$209	400	400	+0	open	—	02-18 01:37
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	1	$204	206	0	+206	open	—	01-15 17:36
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	2	$191	100	99	+1	open	—	06-30 15:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$164	0	400	-400	Yes	$-236	02-17 16:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$119	129	0	+129	open	—	06-17 15:12
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$110	116	0	+116	open	—	01-15 17:36
fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412	1	$110	116	0	+116	open	—	01-15 17:37
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	04-10 02:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	9	$84	200	200	+0	open	—	05-23 07:04
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	12	$75	150	30	+120	open	—	05-12 02:32
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$55	70	0	+70	open	—	06-30 15:20
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	8	$28	50	100	-50	Up	$-42	05-11 08:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 16:17:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0x2898c9…
07-18 16:17:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x286b1e…
07-18 16:11:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0xb8ed51…
07-18 15:48:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	83	12¢	$10	0xeff002…
07-18 15:43:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x308376…
07-18 13:42:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	174	22¢	$38	0x7a9a69…
07-18 13:33:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x762e33…
07-18 13:18:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xf087d8…
07-18 13:15:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	600	39¢	$234	0x802dc0…
07-18 12:41:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	403	38¢	$153	0x037909…
07-18 12:00:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	89	39¢	$35	0xbd4877…
07-18 11:57:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	362	10¢	$36	0x1d0d14…
07-18 11:45:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	197	38¢	$75	0xd275eb…
07-18 11:41:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x917449…
07-18 11:38:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x72652d…
07-18 11:20:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	609	26¢	$158	0x8de899…
07-18 11:13:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	49	9¢	$4	0xa5e02b…
07-18 11:02:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	300	9¢	$27	0xb2df56…
07-18 10:53:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0xdb5157…
07-18 10:52:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xfcc6cf…
07-18 10:47:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xbfcaf8…
07-18 10:42:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x61c3b0…
07-18 10:42:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xc7d4da…
07-18 10:42:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xb94d5b…
07-18 10:23:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	300	39¢	$117	0x5e6cb8…
07-18 10:23:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0xb9d781…
07-18 10:22:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	192	17¢	$33	0xccdf73…
07-18 10:22:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x9757ed…
07-18 10:22:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	185	39¢	$72	0x515bd4…
07-18 10:01:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0xb5cfcb…
07-18 09:55:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0xb2e211…
07-18 09:55:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	190	17¢	$32	0x11e8c1…
07-18 09:55:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	500	17¢	$85	0x09b087…
07-18 09:55:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	625	25¢	$156	0x45daf4…
07-18 09:54:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	792	38¢	$301	0xe3f120…
07-18 09:48:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0xdb005c…
07-18 09:31:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	64	11¢	$7	0xffb508…
07-18 09:15:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x8c342e…
07-18 09:08:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x2073dd…
07-18 09:08:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	314	29¢	$91	0xbd8f20…
07-18 09:08:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	SELL	103	71¢	$73	0xbd8f20…
07-18 09:08:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	256	30¢	$77	0xbb4980…
07-18 09:01:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	136	31¢	$42	0x72f86c…
07-18 08:49:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0xf3fe21…
07-18 08:47:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	144	30¢	$43	0x997a4a…
07-18 08:46:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x194a8f…
07-18 08:45:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	684	40¢	$274	0x18ef7e…
07-18 08:44:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x8f1165…
07-18 08:44:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	600	30¢	$180	0xdbdf90…
07-18 08:44:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	SELL	497	71¢	$353	0xf01080…
07-18 08:43:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0xa7ee8e…
07-18 08:32:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	118	39¢	$46	0xe7bc26…
07-18 08:31:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x1b1933…
07-18 08:29:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	110	72¢	$80	0x59db99…
07-18 08:27:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	490	72¢	$352	0x2a1ec2…
07-18 08:24:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	450	9¢	$40	0x0e27f7…
07-18 07:47:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0xd0b7d5…
07-18 07:40:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	500	19¢	$95	0x1607d4…
07-18 07:39:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	149	9¢	$13	0xc88f87…
07-18 07:39:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	151	9¢	$14	0xdad87d…
06-30 15:20:04	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0x523e24…
06-30 15:19:40	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x93f0d3…
06-30 15:17:49	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	545	33¢	$180	0xa0934d…
06-30 15:08:34	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0xe6147f…
06-30 10:20:17	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	486	33¢	$160	0x713572…
06-30 10:18:20	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	892	33¢	$294	0xb77616…
06-30 10:16:59	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	350	35¢	$122	0x40c660…
06-30 10:16:56	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	2,000	34¢	$673	0x94a6e7…
06-30 10:15:53	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	4,113	35¢	$1,440	0xe000fa…
06-30 10:15:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	140	31¢	$43	0x271b9e…
06-30 10:08:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	295	30¢	$88	0x759ab5…
06-30 09:41:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x6aa005…
06-30 09:40:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	76	29¢	$22	0x8676b5…
06-30 09:24:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	104	31¢	$32	0xb39840…
06-30 09:05:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xbf78c6…
06-30 09:03:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xb76f8d…
06-30 09:00:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x2b62e8…
06-30 08:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	138	31¢	$43	0x5c8b15…
06-30 08:38:35	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0xdcd9eb…
06-30 08:38:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0x158606…
06-30 07:15:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	101	31¢	$31	0x251d61…
06-30 06:11:08	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	45	34¢	$15	0x0217a7…
06-30 03:36:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x6d79f2…
06-30 03:21:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	300	29¢	$87	0xe770be…
06-30 03:21:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	300	29¢	$87	0x4b191f…
06-30 02:58:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0x37f5a0…
06-17 15:12:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	92¢	$119	0x5f69d8…
06-17 15:11:14	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	168	13¢	$21	0x9b1331…
06-17 15:04:32	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	76	14¢	$11	0x268d5b…
06-17 14:53:23	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x0406d7…
06-17 14:14:16	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,143	14¢	$160	0x1e3c01…
06-17 13:56:26	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	97	14¢	$14	0x1a07c8…
06-17 13:53:58	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xfe9741…
06-17 13:37:25	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	300	13¢	$39	0x8104ec…
06-17 13:36:08	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,200	9¢	$106	0x311c7b…
06-17 13:34:32	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,040	16¢	$167	0x71c034…
06-17 13:33:04	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	760	16¢	$124	0xad4bcb…
06-17 09:20:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,800	11¢	$203	0x1b2e14…
06-17 09:09:11	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	488	10¢	$49	0xbb9375…
06-17 07:09:19	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0xce3474…