Drab-Alliance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

98.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,183

lifetime

Volume

$40.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$60

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 06-09 10:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

45% 100% +$25

Other

30% 100% +$26

Crypto

24% 0% $-10

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-213	$-28	16¢	$-35	$-7	05-30 20:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No		+30	$24	84¢	$25	+$1	06-09 10:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	10	$2.1K	1,269	1,269	+0	open	—	04-28 09:13
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	23	$2.1K	5,304	1,440	+3,864	open	—	02-13 14:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$1.4K	790	790	+0	open	—	05-12 15:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	11	$1.2K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-30 20:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$1.2K	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	04-20 22:03
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	8	$1.1K	704	704	+0	open	—	02-24 10:02
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	10	$830	910	910	+0	open	—	04-08 08:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$793	500	500	+0	open	—	04-19 17:54
fif ger gha 2026 03 30 ger	3	$789	445	445	+0	open	—	03-30 21:02
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$719	1,586	1,149	+437	open	—	02-13 22:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	7	$657	1,029	0	+1,029	open	—	04-15 19:58
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$629	334	334	+0	open	—	02-20 12:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$619	592	153	+439	open	—	02-20 12:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$618	355	355	+0	open	—	06-01 07:25
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	2	$601	309	309	+0	open	—	02-13 13:54
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$584	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 08:11
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	2	$555	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 14:33
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	3	$505	287	287	+0	open	—	03-26 19:00
btc updown 5m 1770996000	21	$497	461	457	+3	open	—	02-13 15:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$475	500	0	+500	open	—	06-08 14:53
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$472	587	0	+587	open	—	02-27 16:09
us strike on somalia by february 14	2	$470	556	556	+0	open	—	02-13 10:55
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$430	736	0	+736	open	—	04-16 14:36
will bernie sanders say minneapolis during the fighting oligarchy rally	4	$410	240	240	+0	open	—	02-13 20:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$407	236	235	+1	open	—	04-18 22:31
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	2	$407	215	215	+0	open	—	04-16 14:37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$406	282	282	+0	open	—	04-18 14:04
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 11 335	5	$403	210	210	+0	open	—	04-11 18:00
btc updown 5m 1770996300	32	$398	1,600	190	+1,410	open	—	02-13 15:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$367	200	200	+0	No	+$23	05-07 17:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 10:36:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xd971f4…
06-08 14:53:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x774df1…
06-02 08:33:51	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	90	60¢	$54	0x4b8899…
06-01 15:02:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x5a5457…
06-01 07:28:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x07bab5…
06-01 07:25:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	245	100¢	$245	0x639373…
05-31 15:04:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0x4bc7e1…
05-30 20:58:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	13¢	$28	0xd04f6f…
05-30 20:58:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$699	0xa223b2…
05-25 11:41:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	73¢	$33	0xd30e8a…
05-25 08:08:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xa253b4…
05-12 16:18:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xc50d4c…
05-12 15:30:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x60a187…
05-12 15:30:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	550	98¢	$541	0xc0717c…
05-12 08:44:08	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	46¢	$22	0x009759…
05-12 00:48:59	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	29¢	$23	0x0e7386…
05-11 21:09:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0xbcf1e2…
05-11 07:48:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x7b9c5a…
05-07 17:56:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	550	77¢	$425	0x87ad5c…
05-07 17:30:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x9a5dd3…
05-07 01:35:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	115	65¢	$75	0x887499…
05-06 23:31:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0xa64b46…
05-06 23:27:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x1b1340…
05-06 23:22:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0xda7df2…
05-06 22:41:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x5981cc…
05-06 22:39:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0xef16cb…
05-06 21:51:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x225c61…
05-06 16:08:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	17	61¢	$11	0x73a87c…
05-06 15:57:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	283	61¢	$172	0xfa63c3…
05-06 15:53:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	240	85¢	$203	0x50d385…
05-06 15:53:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	110	74¢	$81	0x9c6b79…
05-06 14:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1da77b…
05-06 14:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9b368a…
05-06 09:22:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	240	87¢	$209	0x2f5fea…
05-06 09:21:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0xfafabc…
05-06 09:20:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x00db64…
05-05 08:01:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	49	92¢	$45	0x165b31…
05-05 07:40:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xc0ae5b…
05-05 07:28:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x8362e5…
05-04 21:00:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x3cd338…
05-04 20:37:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x8831d5…
05-04 14:53:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0xc9462c…
05-04 14:33:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0xdd062a…
05-04 14:22:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	26	79¢	$21	0x4793af…
05-04 14:22:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	47	79¢	$38	0xf0b9df…
05-04 14:01:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x3c9995…
05-04 13:53:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xaa7d83…
05-04 08:57:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	77	94¢	$72	0x0b2dca…
05-04 08:57:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xf7e619…
05-04 08:52:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x1b6ade…
05-04 08:52:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x0bc6c3…
05-04 07:29:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x7946eb…
05-03 09:29:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	83¢	$91	0xc1642d…
05-03 09:28:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xd07f57…
05-03 09:26:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x4c78d7…
04-29 20:34:56	Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xada66f…
04-29 20:34:10	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	58	100¢	$58	0x273919…
04-29 20:34:04	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x1766be…
04-29 15:30:28	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x37d539…
04-29 15:20:52	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	60	77¢	$46	0x41c89a…
04-29 15:20:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	120	83¢	$100	0x6f1004…
04-29 14:34:28	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	BUY	205	75¢	$154	0x05208e…
04-29 14:34:22	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	BUY	48	75¢	$36	0xe02868…
04-29 14:34:20	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x7dd39b…
04-29 14:34:08	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	BUY	43	75¢	$32	0xf79297…
04-29 14:33:30	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	300	94¢	$282	0x7f32a0…
04-29 10:39:42	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0x70cf68…
04-29 10:13:32	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x3ce828…
04-29 10:01:02	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xa568af…
04-29 09:23:08	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x1ff292…
04-29 09:10:32	Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x884418…
04-29 09:08:18	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xb00bb0…
04-29 09:08:02	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x193c35…
04-29 08:21:38	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x202c55…
04-29 08:11:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	300	97¢	$292	0x686804…
04-29 07:23:08	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0x865ff6…
04-29 07:16:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	300	97¢	$292	0x1eef3c…
04-28 13:44:18	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x93366e…
04-28 10:42:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0xa25925…
04-28 10:33:10	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	158	95¢	$150	0x183bfb…
04-28 09:40:28	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xafda18…
04-28 09:27:22	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x66eac4…
04-28 09:19:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x2da9d0…
04-28 09:13:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	1,205	100¢	$1,200	0x580983…
04-20 22:03:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	215	67¢	$144	0x5d928d…
04-20 22:03:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	198	73¢	$145	0x8e0e8c…
04-19 17:57:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	351	67¢	$236	0x7c93ed…
04-19 17:55:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	129	67¢	$87	0xf784d7…
04-19 17:54:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	400	81¢	$324	0x0477f9…
04-18 22:32:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0x531f45…
04-18 22:31:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	111	91¢	$100	0xfe361e…
04-18 19:00:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	102	65¢	$66	0x686907…
04-18 17:48:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xa8aec8…
04-18 17:47:28	den vbk kob 2026 04 19 kob	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xfc77d8…
04-18 17:47:22	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0xe98c1a…
04-18 15:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	98	73¢	$72	0x4677b9…
04-18 15:59:36	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 10 15	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb4016b…
04-18 15:44:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xe57a22…
04-18 14:07:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	400	77¢	$308	0x51c4d2…
04-18 14:04:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	282	73¢	$206	0xa97e80…